Victor Ermakov1, Victor Okhlopkov2, and Yuri Stozhkov3 .. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Title: Victor Ermakov1, Victor Okhlopkov2, and Yuri Stozhkov3 ..


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Influence of zodiacal dust on the Earth's
climate Victor Ermakov1, Victor Okhlopkov2, and
Yuri Stozhkov31 Central Aerology Observatory,
Rosgidromet, Dolgoprudny, Moscow region 2
Skobeltsyn Research Institute of Nuclear
Physics, Moscow State University, Moscow3 P.N.
Lebedev Physical Institute, Russian Academy of
Sciences, Moscow, Russia
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Recently, the warming up of the Earth climate,
which occurred in the 20th century, is widely
discussed. There are two different standpoints
explaining this phenomenon. According to the
first of them, the warming up occurred due to the
antropogenic action on the Earth climate.
According to the other one, this warming up is of
natural origin. The existence of two different
points of view testifies to the fact that the
basic causes governing climate variations are not
finally revealed up to now. This study is
devoted to analysis of reasons for climate
variations and is aimed at the prognosis of these
variations in the nearest future.
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The goals of this study- climate changes in
the the near and far past- the investigation
of physical mechanism driving the climate
changes- prognosis of climate changes in the
nearest future.
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Earth climate variation in the near and far
past The prognosis concerning the variation of
the Earth climate is impossible without analysis
of data on its changes in both the near and far
past. Information on the climate variations for
past 126 years (from 1880 to till now) can be
extracted from the available direct observations
of the air temperature near the Earth surface
(data from the world global net of meteorological
stations (see ftp//ftp.Ncdc/noaa/gov/pub/data/ano
malies/global_meanT_C.all).
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In this period, climate warming up by 0.81 C
occurred. However, periods of the slight
cooling off within the time intervals of
18801910 and 19451970 and periods of maximum
warming up within the intervals of 19101945 and
19751998 were observed. These climate
variations are difficult to explain by the
antropogenic activity since it was continuously
enhancing in the period under consideration.
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Next Figure shows the data on the air-temperature
variations in the region of the Vostok station
(Antarctica) for last 400 000 years Petit J. R.,
Loizel J., Raunaud D., et al., Nature, 399, 429
(1999). The data have been obtained as a result
of the isotopic analysis (18O and D) of ice cores
to the depth of 3300 m. The warming up and the
cooling off periods changed each other several
times. The temperature variations attained 6 oC
and higher. These climate changes usually related
to long-periodic (secular) Earth-orbit variations
are known as Milankovich periods. The secular
variations are caused by perturbations of 8 other
planets of the Solar system, which affect the
Earth orbit.
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The air temperature changed for the last 520 x
106 years according to paleoclimatic data (Veizer
J., Godderis Y., and Francois L. M. Nature, 408,
698 (2000)). For the indicated interval of
time, the Solar system 4 times passed through the
Galaxy arms. In these cases, 4 climate changes
from cooling off to warming up and vice versa
have occurred. While changing the climate,
temperature variations attained 5C and higher.
The occurring climate changes could be
associated with an influence of the Galaxy arms
matter on the Solar system (Mazeev O. A. Astron.
Vestn. , 38, No. 4, 372 (2004).
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• Conclusions
• - In 20th century the value of global warming
  was
• (0.8 1.0) ??
• - The climate changes occurred in the past when
• antropogenic influence on climate was
  absent
• At the time scales of (104 108) years the
• temperature changes reached 5 oC and more.

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?r2?S?(1 A) W? 4?r2???T?4, 1.21017 W
1013 W S?(1 A)/4 ??Te4 S 1366 W/m2
solar irradiance, A albedo and ?? effective
temperature of the Earths climatic system
(atmosphereoceanlithosphere)
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The changes of solar irradiance dS during 11th
solar cycle is less than 0.1 ( 1 W/m2) These
dS can give the corresponding dTS not more than
0.05 ??.
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(E.Palle et al., Can Earths Albedo and Surface
Temperature Increase Together?, Eos, v. 87, No.
4, pp. 37, 43, 2006)
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Conclusions - The global warming up occurred in
20th century at 0.8 1 oC can be explained by
the changes of the albedo of the Earths climatic
system. It corresponds to the increase of solar
irradiance at 16 W/m2.- The contribution of
human activity in this process is not more than
2.5 W/m2 (Climate changes, UNEP RKIKOON, Moscow,
3-2, 2003) or less than (15 20) .
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The same inverse dependence between dust
concentration and temperature was found in
Greenland ice cores for the past 100 thousand
years.These dependences demonstrate that dust
comes to the Earth from interplanetary space (not
from the Earths surface).
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Jupiter

Earth




Zodiacal dust cloud

Venera

Main belt of asteroids



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Main source of dust is the destroying comets
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There are several groups of comets (comet
families). These families are related to the
solar system main planets (Jupiters family,
Saturns family and so on). Thus, in the
variations of dust concentration, in the
variations of albedo, and in the surface
temperature variations the same beatings have to
be observed.
Global temperature spectrum, 1880 - 2005
Amplitude Phase Period
99 .2765 125.3551 194.0357
.0831 .1567 25.2184 64.2959 .0777
.0698 18.9872 32.5329 .0698 .0724
7.8688 20.8962 .0609 .0440 11.7415
14.5267 .0500
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• Main conclusions
• - The global warming up (1880 2005) can not be
• explained by the human activity or solar
  activity
• changes.
• The albedo changes of the Earths climatic
  system is the
• main cause of climate changes in the past and
  present
• times.
• The albedo value is defined by the dust flux
  coming
• to the Earths atmosphere from space. The dust
  flux is
• controlled by the motion of planets.
• On the base of spectral analysis of the global
  surface
• temperature data is shown that the cooling off
  is
• expected in the first half of the 21st century.

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The eruption of Kluchevskaya sopka volcano in
1973 - 1974
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Thank you for attention