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P1253297828bSRGa
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Be ideologically compact minimal winning. Contain median party. Have small ... Be ideologically compact around formateur. Contain party of previous PM ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation
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Title: P1253297828bSRGa
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Government Formation
- Theories of coalition formation
- Size characteristics
- Ideology
- Institutions
- Martin Stevenson (2001) How well do these
theories predict coalition formation?
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Hypotheses related to size
- A cabinet is more likely to
- Have a legislative majority
- Be minimal winning
- Small ( of parties)
- Contain the largest party
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Hypotheses related to Ideology
- A cabinet is more likely to
- Be minimal-connected-winning
- Be ideologically compact minimal winning
- Contain median party
- Have small ideological divisions
- Face an opposition with large ideological division
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Hypotheses related to Institutions
- A cabinet is more likely to
- Include formateur
- Be ideologically compact around formateur
- Contain party of previous PM
- Be incumbent administration
- Be a majority cabinet if an investiture vote is
present - Consist of parties that have made a pre-electoral
pact - Consist of parties that have not announced
unwillingness to form a coalitions with one
another - Not include anti-system parties
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Hypotheses related to Post-Coalition Governance
- Laver and Shepsle (1996) Portfolio dominance
- Allows predictions of stable cabinets
- Very strong parties
- Centrally located
- Big
- No coalition preferred by other parties to single
party cabinet of VSP - Merely strong parties
- MSP is member of all coalitions that can topple a
MSP cabinet
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Hypotheses related to Post-Coalition Governance
- A cabinet is more likely to
- Contain VSP
- Be minority if the contain VSP
- Contain MSP
- Be minority if the contain MSP
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Test
- 14 countries
- 220 cabinets formed
- Findings
- Investiture -gt no minority cabinets
- Largest party is likely to form cabinet but
only if it gets PM - Incumbency has a positive effect
- Laver and Shepsles VSP MSP are more important
than other measures of strength and ideology.
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