AFY533E Research and Analysis Methods - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Title: AFY533E Research and Analysis Methods


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AFY533E Research and Analysis Methods

• Yurdanur Ünal

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Objectives

• Be acquainted with the scientific method.
• Understand some of the different domains and
  disciplines for scientific research of emergency
  management.
• Understand the role of other scientific
  disciplines in the practice of emergency
  management.
• Understand one experiment demonstrating the
  scientific method.

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Research

• Science
• The aim of science is to provide new and useful
  information in the form of data which can be
  verified in a way that allows other researchers
  can make similar observations and obtain similar
  results.
• Research points out the relationships between
  events and the things that affect them, and
  describes them to others.
• Publications
• Science has progressed over the centuries because
  researchers have been able to trust the validity
  on their predecessors work and have known about
  it because of publications.
• Development
• In the last century, scientific development has
  increased dramatically in many disciplines
  because of a better understanding of the
  scientific method, vastly improved research
  facilitates, and much better and faster
  communication of results.

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Research

• Emergency Management as an academic discipline is
  a new field and those developing the academic
  aspects are drawing on many other fieldssome
  scientific, and others more related to technology
  and management.

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The scientific method

• is a structured way of gathering, analyzing and
  drawing conclusions.
• The classic experiment is typically conducted
  in a laboratory where conditions can be tightly
  controlled.
• The object
• to determine the effects of a single independent
  variable by comparing its effects on two groups
  by isolating the effect of the independent
  variable
• 1. the independent variable experimental
• 2. not receiving the independent variable
  control
• Hypothesis is generally stated before an
  experiment is performed, which is believed to
  describe underlying behavior to be investigated.
• The experimental method provides the most
  reliable source of scientific information and is
  the preferred method of science.

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Relationship between Social Structure and
Disaster (from Kreps, 1989)

• Magnitude of impact
• Scope of impact
• Length of warning
• Duration of impact
• Physical, temporal and social dimensions that can
  serve as either independent or dependent
  variables.
• For classification
• Focus on physical and temporal similarities and
  differences of impact in comparison.

Events - Impacts
Disaster Domains Social
Structure
Social Units - Responses
Important bridging cocept is the domain. e.g.
Floods have greater scope of impact than
tornadoes.
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Social Domains of Disaster(from Kreps, 1989)
Domains

• Care of fatalities
• Providing victim basic needs
• Damage needs and assessment
• Damage control
• Restoration of essential services
• Public information
• Traffic control
• Law enforcement
• Local governance
• Coordination and control
• Reconstruction planning
• Reconstruction of physical structures
• Reestablishment of economic functioning
• Resumption of other social institutions
• Determining liability for the event

• Hazard-vulnerability analysis
• Maintenance of standby human and material
  resources
• Disaster preparedness, planning and training
• Public education
• Hazard mitigation-structural
• Hazard mitigation-nonstructural
• Insurance of predictions and warnings
• Dissemination of predictions and warnings
• Evacuation
• Protective action
• Mobilization of emergency personnel and resources
• Search and rescue
• Medical care

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Purpose of Research

• Purpase might be more than one of them
• Exploration
• Description what, where, when and how
• To describe situations and events
• Scientific descriptions are more acurate and
  precise.
• Explanation why

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Exploration

• A researcher examines a new interest the
  subject of the study is new.
• Focus groups small group discussions
• Done for 3 purposes
• to satisfy he researchers curiosity ? better
  understanding
• to test the feasibilty ? more extensive study
• To develop methods to be used for successive
  research

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Exploration

• Examples
• 1. Taxpayer dissatisfaction
• How wide spread it is?
• What levels and degrees of support are there
  within the community?
• How is the movement organized?
• What kinds of people are active in it?
• 2. Colleges graduation requierements
• History of requirements,
• Learn the reasons
• 3. Focus groups Channeling
• Who are they?
• Where do they come from?
• Why are they doing this?
• How can we tell if they are real or fake?
• 4. Why people still live flood prone areas?
• Who are they?
• What are their education level?
• What are their social status? etc.

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Exploration

• Show
• Where research begins.
• Whereas researchers working from the deductive
  theories have the key variables in advance
• Identification some of the possible variables.
• Classification
• gender
• education level
• religious background
• origin
• Grounded theory sources

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Exploration

• Shortcomings
• Seldom provide satisfactory answers but might
  suggest which research methods could provide
  definitive answers
• Problem is their representativeness sample
  problem

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Description

• To decribe the situation and events.
• observe ? describe
• Scientific observation is careful and deliberate,
• Scientific decriptions are typically more acurate
  and precise.
• e.g. National Cencus records.
• Crime rates of a city
• Gender profile of a population
• Qualitative studies aim at decription.
• ? Researchers continue to examine why the
  observed patterns exist and what they imply.

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Explanation

• Describing studies anwers the questions
• what
• where
• when
• how
• However, explatory research anwers
• why
• e.g. Why some cities are higher crime rates?
• Why still some people live in regions prone to
  natural hazards.

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The logic of nomothetic explanation

• A nomothetic explanation is probabilistic and
  usually not complete.
• Criteria
• Variables must be correlated
• The cause takes place before the effect
• The variables are nonspurious
• Corelation relationship between two variables
• Time Order the cause precedes the effect in
  time.
• Nonspurious the effect cant be expalined by
  third variable. Coincidental statistical
  correlation.
• False Criteria
• Complete causation
• Exceptional cases
• Majority of cases
• Necessary and Sufficient Causes
• Nmust be present to effect to follow,
• Sif it is present, guarantees the effect.

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Units of Analysis

• The what and whom being studied
• Individuals
• Groups
• Organizations
• Social Artifacts
• e.g. Mariages marriage partners
  crimes-criminals corporations corporate
  executives.

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The time dimension

• Time sequence of events
• Generalizability of research findings
• Cross-Sectional Studies observations of a
  sample. Exploratory and descritive studies are
  cross sectional.- snapshot.
• Longitudinal studies observations of the same
  phenomena over an extended period of time. Field
  research projects.
• Trend studies
• Cohort Studies age group
• Panel Studies

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Scientific disciplines which researchers studying
emergency management might encounter

• New technologies are now being widely used in the
  practice of emergency management -- an
  inter-disciplinary dimension.
• For example, geographic information systems
  (GIS).
• Increase of flood risk due to urbanization- use
  of satelate images.

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• Bangladesh e-Journal of Sociology. Vol. 1. No. 2.
  July, 2004.
• Disaster Research Exploring Sociological
  Approach to Disaster in
• Bangladesh
• Mahbuba Nasreen
• Survey of the general literature on disaster,
  Alexander (1993) identified six schools of
  thought on natural hazards and disaster studies
• the geographical approach,
• the anthropological approach,
• the sociological approach,
• the development studies approach,
• the disaster medicine approach and
• the technical approach.

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The geographical approach (pioneered by Barrows,
1923 and White, 1945) deals with the human
ecological adaptation to the environment with
special emphasis on the 'spatio-temporal
distribution of hazard impacts, vulnerability and
people's choice and adjustment to natural
hazards. Social science methods are widely used
in this approach. The anthropological approach
(Oliver-Smith, 1979, 1986 Hansen and
Oliver-Smith, 1982) emphasizes the role of
disasters in guiding the socio-economic evolution
of populations. Anthropologists adopting this
approach search for reasons why communities in
the 'Third World fail to provide basic
requirements for their people's survival. The
sociological approach (Dynes, 1970 Qurantelli,
1978 Mileti, Drabek and Haas, 1975 Drabek and
Boggs, 1968 Drabek, 1986) discusses
vulnerability and the impact of disaster upon
patterns of human behavior and the effects of
disaster upon community functions and
organization.
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Oliver-Smith (1996) developed three general
themes as the major trends in anthropological
research in disaster behavioral response
approach, social change approach, and political
economic/ environmental approach. Oliver-Smith
argues that disaster in developing world occur at
the interface of society, technology and
environment and is fundamentally the outcomes of
the interactions of these characteristics. He has
also reported that although occurrence of
disaster is frequent, theoretical work in
disaster research is limited. The development
studies approach (Davis, 1978 Knott, 1987)
discusses the problems of distributing aid and
relief to 'Third World' countries and focuses on
refugee management, health care and the avoidance
of starvation. The disaster medicine and
epidemiology approach (Beinin,1985) focuses on
the management of mass casualties. It also
includes the treatment of severe physical trauma
and other diseases which may occur after a
disaster. The technical approach (Bolt et al.
1977 El-Sabh and Murty, 1988) focuses on
geophysical approaches to disaster such as
studied in seismology, geomorphology and
volcanology and seeks engineering solutions.
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Among these approaches two disciplines, geography
and sociology, have dominated the field of
disaster research since the 1950s and have
emphasized the environmental and behavioral
aspects of disaster. Drabek's (1986) findings on
existing sociological literature are the
significant contributions to the conceptual
typology of sociological disaster research. He
identified different areas of concern in disaster
research such as planning, warning, evacuation,
emergency, restoration, reconstruction,
perceptions and adjustments. He discussed
sociology of disaster under four major headings
preparedness, response, recovery and mitigation.
However, most of the approaches and sociological
research on disaster have been formulated and
conducted for the developed world (especially the
USA). Their application to developing areas is
problematic and very limited. Moreover, there is
almost no discussion of the gender response to
disaster under any theoretical approach. In fact,
only recently sociologists turned their
attentions to the larger questions of social
change related to disaster or the pre-impact
conditions in disaster areas as sources of
post-impact changes Oliver-Smith, Anthony.
1986. 'Disaster Context and Causation An
Overview of Changing Perspective in Disaster
Research' in Vinson H. Sutlive et al (eds)
Natural Disasters and Cultural Responses.
Williamsburg Department of Anthropology, College
of William and Mary.
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Emergency Management Issues and Relationship to
Science and Technology
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EXPERIMENTAL PROBLEM To investigate the effects
of caffeine (contained in two cups of coffee) on
the achievement of college students on a final
examination.
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EXPERIMENTAL PROBLEM To investigate the effects
of caffeine (contained in two cups of coffee) on
the achievement of college students on a final
examination. HYPOTHESIS Two cups of black
coffee taken immediately before a task requiring
mental exertion increase a students academic
efficiency.
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PROCEDURE Two groups of subjects were used.
Group 1 consisted of 200 college students who
were matched in age, intelligence, sex, and
grade-point average with the 200 students in
Group 2. Subjects in both groups were enrolled
in the elementary course in public
administration. All subjects in Group 1
(experimental group) drank two cups of black
coffee immediately before taking the final
examination. All subjects in Group 2 (control
group) were instructed not to take any stimulants
during the day the final examination was to be
taken. For purposes of analysis, the grades of
the students of both groups were converted into
the following numerical equivalents (grade
points) A 4 B 3 C 2 D 1 and F 0.
The average grade-point score for each of the two
groups was then computed.
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RESULTS The results of the experiment are
summarized in the tables. The table Data from
the Study indicates the number and percentage of
students in each group obtaining each of the five
letter grades on the final exam in general
psychology. The table Results of the Study
gives the average grade-point scores of the two
groups. These results indicate that the students
in Group 1 did consistently better than the
students in Group 2.
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Data from the Study Caffeine and Test
Performance
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Results of the Study
CONCLUSIONS Comparison of the final examination
grades earned in Introduction to Public
Administration by two groups of college students
(a stimulant-taking group and a
non-stimulant-taking group) indicates that taking
a mild stimulant, such as two cups of black
coffee, immediately before an examination
increases the academic efficiency and achievement
of college students in the course.
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Exerscise
Design an experiment to test the effectiveness of
a training program to teach local emergency
management planners how to develop local
Comprehensive Emergency Management Plans. A
group of planners is provided with training
including model plans and a four-hour workshop.
Another group receives no such help. We
presume that the group with training will write
better plans as judged by independent ratings of
the plans (provided by experts).
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Exerscise

• independent variable
• dependent variable
• hypothesis
• experimental group
• control group

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Exerscise

• independent variable
• (training)
• dependent variable
• (ratings of plans by experts)
• hypothesis
• (the group with training will develop better
  plans)
• experimental group
• (those receiving training)
• control group
• (those not receiving training).

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What can go wrong with this experiment? What
are some of the extraneous variables which could
affect the results and make the interpretation
unclear?