Spatial economics and location theory

1
Spatial economics and location theory
implications for modeling environmental impacts
of future development patterns

• Brian Voigt
• NR385 Ecological Economics

Brian Voigt NR385 Ecological Economics
2
Early City Development?

• Agricultural surplus
• technological innovation irrigation, plow
• The defensive city
• fortified storage facility
• The religious city
• worship on a grander scale
• scale economies in the provision of religion

3
A Brief History of Location Theory

• David Ricardo (1772 1823)
• theory of differential rent based on variation in
  fertility
• J-H von Thünen (1738 - 1850)
• model based on a central market place with
  varying land uses radiating outward
• Walter Christaller (1893 1969)
• theory of central place defined by hexagonal
  pattern based on top-down approach
• August Lösch (1906 1945)
• bottom up approach modeled after Christaller
• William Alonso (1933 1999)
• model of demand for land as a function of
  distance from CBD
• locus of opportunities v indifference surface

4
von Thünens Isolated State
5
A Brief History of Location Theory

• David Ricardo (1772 1823)
• theory of differential rent based on variation in
  fertility
• J-H von Thünen (1738 - 1850)
• model based on a central market place with
  varying land uses radiating outward
• Walter Christaller (1893 1969)
• theory of central place defined by functions of
  cities
• hexagonal pattern based on top-down approach
• August Lösch (1906 1945)
• bottom up approach modeled after Christaller
• William Alonso (1933 1999)
• model of demand for land as a function of
  distance from CBD
• locus of opportunities v indifference surface

6
Christaller Lösch

• Villages at vertices
• Town
• City
• Conurbation

7
A Brief History of Location Theory

• David Ricardo (1772 1823)
• theory of differential rent based on variation in
  fertility
• J-H von Thünen (1738 - 1850)
• model based on a central market place with
  varying land uses radiating outward
• Walter Christaller (1893 1969)
• theory of central place defined by hexagonal
  pattern based on top-down approach
• August Lösch (1906 1945)
• bottom up approach modeled after Christaller
• William Alonso (1933 1999)
• Location and Land Use (1964)
• model of demand for land as a function of
  distance from CBD
• locus of opportunities v indifference surface

8
Evolution Of Urban Form

• Topographic constraints
• Ports and waterways (1840s)
• Walking city
• 2 mile radius 1 hr walk from edge to center
  (pre-1850s)
• Transportation options
• Horse drawn and electric trolley expanded ring
  to 5 miles around city, linear development, empty
  space b/t trolley lines (1850s 1900)
• Cars and buses expanded ring to 10 mile, fill
  in between trolley lines, primarily auto
  dependent (1930s)
• Decentralization of the central city
• Redefining the American dream post-WWII
  development of the 1940s
• Suburban, ex-urban, and edge cities
• Sprawling development

9
City Statistics

• 1950 70 of population lived in cities
• 2000 60 of population lived in suburbs
• Of the 157 urbanized areas in 1950
• 69 million people and 12,715 sq miles
• Same 157 urbanized areas in 2000
• 155 million people and 52,388 sq miles
• Net result
• 2.25 x population
• 4.12 x land area

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Factors of Influence on Urban Form

• Social factors
• segregation racial, class, religious
• congestion
• Economic
• maximizing individual satisfaction (Alonso, 1964)
• cheap land and subsidized transportation costs
• Technological change
• transportation
• telecommunication substitute for human
  interaction?
• Government policy
• Federal highways, water sewer
• State local land use planning

11
Land Use Planning
Land Use Planning

• Originated in the 1920s as a means to protect
  human health and welfare from neighboring
  industrial development
• Can we protect people from themselves?
• Segregation of land uses
• Causes and characteristics of sprawl
• affordable transportation, federally funded
  highways
• affordable home mortgage rates post WWII
• low density, non-contiguous land patterns
• Can we plan our way out of sprawl? Portland v
  Phoenix

• Originated in the 1920s as a means to protect
  human health and welfare from neighboring
  industrial development
• Can we protect people from themselves?
• Segregation of land uses
• Causes and characteristics of sprawl
• affordable transportation, federally funded
  highways
• affordable home mortgage rates post WWII
• low density, non-contiguous land patterns
• Can we plan our way out of sprawl? Portland v
  Phoenix

12
Modeling with UrbanSim

• University of Washington, Dept of Urban Design
  and Planning
• www.urbansim.org
• Dynamic disequilibrium approach
• avoid oversimplification of general equilibrium
  conditions
• perfectly competitive market, products are
  homogenous, resources are mobile, present and
  future costs are known to all
• Actor adjustment processes occur at varying rates
• short travel behavior
• medium household / business location
• long real estate development
• Simulates annual evolution of households, jobs
  and real estate
• individual-based for household and employment
  location
• grid-based real estate market
• Allows for hypothesis testing on specific policy
  alternatives or impact evaluation of scheduled
  events

from Waddell, et al, 2003
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UrbanSim cntd

• Model architecture
• suite of tools that interact through a data store
• each component is recalculated annually
• exogenous inputs
• macroeconomic model predicts future conditions
  based on logistic regression analysis
• travel demand forecasts future travel conditions
• user input changing land use policy, scheduled
  events
• Model components
• accessibility normal good w/positive economic
  value
• economic transition distribution of jobs
  through employment sectors
• demographic transition distribution of
  households by type over time
• employment mobility P(job moves from one
  location to another)
• household mobility P(household moves from one
  place to another)
• employment location P(new or relocated job,
  located at a particular site)
• household location P(new or relocated
  household, located at particular site)

from Waddell, et al, 2003
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Applying UrbanSim to Northern VT

• Data
• Economic
• land value, employment
• Biophysical
• topography, soils
• Infrastructure
• roads, transit
• Planning zoning
• land use, available housing
• Census
• population, household income, race, age

• Case example
• Chittenden, Addison and Lamoille Counties
• Model calibration
• 1990 2002
• Model run
• 2000 2015
• Coordinated research effort
• habitat fragmentation
• northern forest research
• EPA grant

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Model Outputs Land Use Change 1980 - 1994
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Conclusions

• Variation from early theories
• global market place
• changing technology
• Utility of current modeling effort
• model outputs inform planning process ecosystem
  modeling
• export to GIS for spatial analysis and
  visualization
• Relevance to land use planning
• assess impacts of current development patterns on
  environmental quality
• test impacts of alternative land use policies
• improved alternative to current growth model
• minimize habitat fragmentation, enhance
  restoration, and protect species biodiversity

17
" we have been the most prodigal of people with
land, and for years we wasted it with impunity
... no matter how much we fouled it, there was
always more over the next hill, or so it seemed."
William Whyte (1968), The Last Landscape