Microsimulation in the UK: the current state of play

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Microsimulation in the UK the current state of
play

• Dr Paul Williamson
• Dept. of Geography
• University of Liverpool

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Current MSM in the UK an overview
Model Institution Static Dynamic ABM Tax-benefit Demographic Other Public
Multiple DWP X X X X
Multiple Treasury X X X X
PPI X X X
IFS X X
OPERA Stirling X X X
MOSES Leeds X X
SCOTSIM Liverpool X X
SAGEMOD Southampton X X X
SimBritain Sheffield X X X
EUROMOD Essex X X X
Lawson Essex X ? X X X
Anderson Essex
S-Paramics SIAS X X X
SimDELTA DSC X X X
SOCSIM LSE X X X
CARESIM UEA X X X
FEARLUS MLURI X
ADaPT Southampton X X
? York X
? Leeds X X X
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of non-fitting synthetic combinations PARTIALLY CONSTRAINED DISTRIBUTIONS of non-fitting synthetic combinations PARTIALLY CONSTRAINED DISTRIBUTIONS of non-fitting synthetic combinations PARTIALLY CONSTRAINED DISTRIBUTIONS of non-fitting synthetic combinations PARTIALLY CONSTRAINED DISTRIBUTIONS of non-fitting synthetic combinations PARTIALLY CONSTRAINED DISTRIBUTIONS
Distribution Rural (South West) Middling England (East Mids.) Deprived industrial (North) Deprived urban (Outer London)
SEG / Household composition 0 0 0 0
SEG / Rooms 0.5 0 0 0
Household composition / Dependants 0 0 0 0
Dependants / Tenure 0 0 0 0
Sex / marital status / tenure 16 1.5 1.5 3.0
Illness / sex 0 1.5 0 0
Synthetically estimated spatial microdata
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Telephony 2005/6

• Simulated household weekly telephone bill
  (landlines) (FES 2005/6)
• EEDA, LSOA level

• Ward level comparison with BT billing data (EEDA,
  Ward level)
• Spearman rho 0.7796, p lt 0.001

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• Validation
• (Spearman rho 0.8404, p lt 0.001)
• Strong correlation with Census 2001 work time

Simulated work time ONS Time-Use Survey (2001)
and Census 2001 East of England, LSOA
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2001
2011
More happy than usual
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Happiness Life Events Happiness Life Events
Event Correlation
Top 5 negative associations Top 5 negative associations
Relationships (mine ending) -0.178
Death (parent) -0.166
Healthparent -0.139
Death (other) -0.137
Employment job loss -0.129

Top Five positive associations Top Five positive associations
Relationships (mine starting) 0.160
Employment job gain 0.097
Finance (house) 0.097
Pregnancy (mine) 0.084
Pregnancy (child's) 0.053
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OPERA
(1) Costs ( disposable income) of various Local
Tax structures
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(2) Change in costs given changing Dementia
prevalence
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MOSES
Workflow
Research Object
Portlet
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Conventional migration distribution procedure
Simulation Database
Update Location and Dwelling Characteristics
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Migrant generation model
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Aggregate To Migrant Population
Aggregate To Vacant Dwellings
Spatial Interaction Model
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Compute dwelling preference for each migrant
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ABM in MOSES
Observed MSM ABM
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Modelling Individual Consumer Behaviour
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ABM v. MSM?
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The Global Epidemic Simulator
t1
t2
t4
t3
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Modelling Needs and Resources of Older People to
2030 (MAP2030)
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SOCSIM
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Average number of living grand children and grand
parents (complete)
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CARESIM adding new cohort of people now aged
45-64

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CONCLUSION
In a number of fields UK MSM is
world-leading Challenges All models Maintenance
/updating/upgrading/validation Increased
collaboration Increasing user base Academic
models Greater public policy influence
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SPARES
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Behavioural Labour Supply Modelling
U
Household Income (yh )
hmaxh U U( h, yh X )
Hours of labour supplied by household (h)
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S-Paramics
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FEARLUS Land use model (ABM)

• Yellow actual forestry
• Green suitable for forestry
• Red ownership boundaries
• ?Land use is based on more than suitability and
  (simple) economics
• i.e. Sociological factors (owner preferences)
• e.g. Grouse shooting

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FEARLUS-W
Land use selection
Calculation of Return
Climate
Land Uses
Estimated Yield
Market Conditions
Land use
Biophysical properties
Yearly Cycle
Estimated Social Acceptability
Pollution
Return
Before
Neighbours Approval/Disapproval
After
Social Interactions
Land sales
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With Social Approval
No Reward
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SimDELTA model processes
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Transport test M18 spur
New junction