[Sarmiento and Gruber, 2002]

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??????????????? ??????????????
???????? ??????????????
?? ??
2002.12.16 ???? ????
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1. ????
???????
Sarmiento and Gruber, 2002
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?????????
CO2/O2 based method
Prentice et al., 2001 IPCC TAR
1980s 1990s Atmosphere
increase 3.3 0.1 3.2 0.1 Emissons
(fossil fuel, cement) 5.4 0.3 6.3 0.4
Ocean-atmosphere flux -1.9 0.6 -1.7 0.5
Land atmosphere flux -0.2 0.7 -1.4 0.7
partitioned as follows Land use change
1.7 (0.6-2.5) NA Residual terrestrial
sink -1.9 (-3.8-0.3) NA
1) Comparable global data on land-use changes
through the 1990s are not yet available. 2)
Error bars denote uncertainty (1 sigma), not
interannual variability, which is
substantially greater.
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???????????????
Zonal distribution of terrestrial and oceanic
carbon fluxes. Results are shown for the 1980s
(plain bars) for 199096 (hatched bars).
Schimel et al., 2001
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??????????????
CO2?????? ?????????? ???? ????? ??????
???CO2??????
CO2?? ? ??(??) ???? ? ??(??) ???? ?
???????? ????(???)?? ????? ? ?????????
Sarmiento and Grube, 2002?????
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????
Defries et al., 1998
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Potential Climate Limitation
Limit Factor
Water
Radiation
Temperature
Churkina and Running, 1998
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Northern mid and high latitude
Satellite-based (AVHRR GIMMS data) NDVI trend
(1982-1999) (NDVI Normalized Difference
Vegetation Index)
Zhou et al., 2001
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Changes in growing season
82
84
86
88
90
94
96
92
00
98
(year)
NDVI???????????(????????)
??NDVI ??
NDVI
??18??? NDVI ??? (???)
????????
???????
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
11
9
12
10
8
Month
Zhou et al. 2001
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????????????(???????-????)
LAI???????
?????LAI???
Lucht et al., 2002
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Global mapping of NPP trend (1982-1999)
NPP kgC/yr
Based on MODIS NPP algorithm (Satellite-based LAI
FPAR)
(Light Use Efficiency Approach GPP APAR LUE)
Nemani et al., 2002 in MODIS vegetation workshop
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Recent trend in NCEP surface solar radiation
(1982-1999)
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2. ??????????????????
Sim-Cycle
MATSIRO
?
Bonan, 1995
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60 PgC/yr
????
120 PgC/yr
60 PgC/yr
1.7 PgC/yr
GPP Gross Primary Production NPP Net
Primary Production (GPP - Rplant) NEP Net
Ecosystem Production (GPP - Rplant -
Rheterortr) NBP Net Biome Production (NEP
Fdisturb)
Chapin et al., 2002
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???
Waring and Running, 1998
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????
Chapin et al., 2002
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????????
Arora, 2002
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• ??????????

??, 2001
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• ???????

Example ?????????(GS)
GSGSMIN
aPC
f(CDATM)
f(VPD)
f(CDATM)(CDATM-CDCMP)
f(VPD)(1VPD/b)
(Ball-Berry ???)
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• ?????(GPP Gross Primary Production)

?????????????? ?????????????? (???????????)
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• ???????(AR Autotrophic Respiration)

?????????CO2?? ? 2?????????? ????(ARG)????(ARM) ?
ARM??????????
???????????
ARMARMSAPARMHEART
Thin (young)
Thick (old)
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• ???????(HR Heterotrophic Respiration)

????????????CO2 ??(?????) ??????????????
????????????? Lloyd and Taylor (1994)
????????????? ???????????? ??????
air space
moisture
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• ??????

???
???????
????
???????
?????
(???????)
??
????
????
?????
e.g. ??? ?????etc.
??
??? ???
e.g. constant fraction Biome-BGC
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C, N, H2O, ???????
in Biome-BGC
Atmosphere
???
Water Vapor
??
Radiation
Plants
Nitrogen
??
?? ??
Soil Water
Temperature
Soil Organic Matter
??
Nitrogen
Water
e.g. Thornton, 1998
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3. ??????????(???????)
?????Net Primary Production(NPP)???? Cramer
et al. 1999 20????????????(????????)
McGuire et al. 2001 DGVM(Dynamic Global
Vegetation Model)???? Cramer et al. 2001
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?????Net Primary Production(NPP)????
Annual NPP (g C m 2) estimated as the average of
all model NPP estimates. Cramer et al. 1999

Comparison of the latitudinal distribution of
the mean annual NPP Kicklighter et al. 1999
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20????????????(???????)
McGuire et al., 2001
Land use change
Houghton RamankuttyFoley
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DGVM(Dynamic Global Vegetation Model)????
Prentice et al., 2001
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DGVM???? (?????)
CO2????
Cramer et al., 2001
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4. ????????????????(GCM????)
????
Hadley Center Cox et al. 2000 (IPCC IS92a)
TRIFFID Cox 2001
IPSL Dufresne et al., 2002 Berthelot et al.,
2000 (SRES A2)
SLAVE Friedlingstein et al. 1995
Bern-CC model Joos et al., 2000 (SRES A1B)
LPJ Sitch 2000 (Intermediate Complexity Model)
A2
IS92a
A1B
SRES Emission Scenario Joos et al. 2001
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Hadley/IPSL???
Hadley Cox et al., 2000
IPSL Dufresne et al., 2002
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CO2?????????????????????
DGVM studies prescribed CO2 concentration
Cox et al. Defresne et al. const climate
under CO2 emission
Defresne et al., 2002
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???????????(Total Amazon)
Dufresne et al. 2002
??????
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IPSL Result
Coupled vs const Climate
????NPP??
Berthelot et al., 2002
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Bern-CC Model
Release
Pre-industrial ????
????????? (kgC/m2)
Uptake
???????????C??
?????? (mm/day)
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Bern-CC Model
Amazon???(?????) Cox et al. 2000
?
??????
Joos et al., 2001
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Bern-CC/IPSL???
A2
A1B
A2
A1B
IPSL Dufresne et al., 2002
Bern-CC Joos et al., 2001
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Bern-CC?????
CO2?????
CO2???2000????
CO22 4.5?
CO22 2.5?
CO22 0.0?
????????
Joos et al., 2001
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?????????
Hadley,IPSL,Bern-CC????????????
?????????????/???????
GCM??????(?????)
???????????????
????????????(????????)
?????????????????
???????
????????????????? ??????????????????????
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5. ?????
??
Biogeochemistry
Biophysics (GCM)
Sim-Cycle
MATSIRO
Ecosystem State (Biogeography)
2003?????
Biogeochemistry
Biophysics (GCM)
MATSIRO
Sim-Cycle
Ecosystem State (Biogeography)
Farquhar? ??????
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Sim-Cycle?MATSIRO???(??)
Sim-Cycle(remove H2O cycle)
MATSIRO

Arora, 2002
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????
Biogeochemistry
Biophysics (GCM)
MATSIRO
Sim-Cycle
Ecosystem State (Biogeography)
2004?? or 2005??
Biogeochemistry
Biophysics (GCM)
MATSIRO
Sim-Cycle
Ecosystem State (Biogeography)
Land use change
N-cycle (?)
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????? MATSIRO-SimCycle???????
1) ?????? ??????????????????
?????????? Flux???(NEP) ??????????? LAI, FPAR(?),
NPP(????) ???????????? LAI, FPAR(?), NPP(????)
2) ???????????????????????
????????? ??????????????????? Dynamic?????
3) ????
???????????? ???????????????????
4) ??????????
GCM??????(e.g. ??????????)