Kristie L' Ebi, Ph'D', MPH

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Climate Change and Human Health

• Kristie L. Ebi, Ph.D., MPH
• Joint Annual Meeting Oceans and Human Health
• krisebi_at_essllc.org
• 16 April 2008

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Disclaimer

• Climate change is driven and affected by oceans
• But limited collaboration across communities
  researching health impacts
• There is little research on the intersection of
  climate change, human health, and oceans
• Issues of scale

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Health Impacts Depend on Multiple Factors

• Geographic factors
• Baseline climate
• Abundance of natural resources (i.e. soil, fresh
  water supplies)
• Biological sensitivity
• Developmental stage
• Pre-existing medical conditions and/or acquired
  factors (i.e. immunity)
• Genetic factors
• Socioeconomic factors affect ability to adapt or
  respond

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IPCC AR4 Health Impacts of Climate Change

• Emerging evidence of impacts
• Altered distribution of some vectors
• Altered seasonal distribution of some pollen
  species
• Increased risk of heatwave deaths

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Direction and Magnitude of Climate Change Health
Impacts
IPCC 2007
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World Population 1960
www. Worldmapper.com
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World Population 2050
www. Worldmapper.com
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Infant Mortality 1-4 Years
www. Worldmapper.com
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Impacts Will Be Site-Specific And Path Dependent
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Floods in Europe
1992 1346 killed in Tajikistan 1993 125 died in
Yekaterinburg, Russia 1996 86 died in the
Biescas campsite, Spain 1998 147 died in Sarno,
Italy 2002 120 died in Central Europe
Source "EM-DAT The OFDA/CRED International
Disaster Database, www.em-dat.net - Université
Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgium"
Created on May-23-2005. - Data version v05.05
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Sea Level Rise
http//www.geo.arizona.edu/dgesl/research/other/cl
imate_change_and_sea_level/sea_level_rise/northeas
t/slr_usane_i.htm
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McGheehin
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Increase in Heatwave Severity (C) 2080-2099 (c)
minus 1961-1990 (b) 3-Day Warmest Nighttime
Minimum
Ebi and Meehl 2007
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Projected Changes in Ozone and Related Deaths, NY
Metro Area
1990
2020s
2050s
2080s
2050s
Kinney et al. 2006
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Temperature-Salmonella Models fully adjusted
Kovats et al. 2004
England Wales
Switzerland
Scotland
Netherlands
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Distribution of Lyme Disease, 1991-2000 and 2020
Ogden et al. Int. J. Parasitol. 2005, 2006
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Lyme Disease Under Climate Change
Modeled geographic limits projected for the
establishment of I. scapularis ticks, in
degree-days above 0ºC. Present modeled limits in
blue or red (considering Great Lakes cooling
effect). Triangles indicate endemic tick
populations. Red dotted lines indicated projected
change in the modeled geographic limits in three
future time periods according to climate change
scenarios Ogden et al., 2005
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Climate Change-Attributable Malaria Deaths in
Botswana, Niger, and Nigeria
Tol et al. 2007
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Projected Changes in Length of Growing Season,
2050
ECHam4, B2
ECHam4, B1
gt 20 loss 5-20 loss No change 5-20 gain gt20
gain
International Livestock Research Institute, 2006
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Climate Change Impacts in 2030 under 750 ppm CO2
Scenario (thousands of cases)
Estimated costs to treat the climate
change-related cases 3,992 to 12,603 million
Ebi submitted
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Managing the Health Risks of Climate Change

• Identify and assess health risks
• Identify vulnerable populations and regions
• Identify, prioritize, and integrate responses
  into programs and activities
• Raise awareness -- increase knowledge
  information
• Strengthen resilience of health systems
• Promote actions to reduce current and projected
  health impacts
• Guide healthy development to benefit health while
  preparing for and responding to climate change
• Advocate for changes in behavior that promote
  health while reducing climate change
• Monitor and evaluate

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Public Health Adaptation

• Reduce exposures
• Legislative policies
• Alterations in built environment
• Alterations in natural environment
• Prevent onset of adverse outcomes
• Early warning systems
• Surveillance and monitoring
• Vector control programs
• Public education and outreach
• Response / treatment
• Medical training and awareness
• Treatment
• Emergency response

Residual climate change-related health impacts
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Climate Change Is About Choice
IPCC 2007
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Healthy Development
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Fostering Collaboration

• Many common issues
• Need studies of the associations between
  weather/climate and health
• Also studies of the health impacts of climate
  change
• Climate change community has strong scientific
  and communication infrastructure
• Climate change has experience with transitioning
  to application

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Thank-you