Impacts%20of%20Technological%20Change%20on%20Society

1
Impacts of Technological Change on Society

• Higher population levels
• Increased life expectancy
• Higher productivity
• Lower material intensities

2
Night Lights 1995/1996
1995
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Night Lights 2070 (IPCC SRES A1)
2070
4
Global Communication Traffic Flows
Source S. Eick, Bell Labs
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Digital Divide
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Primary Energy Substitution
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World - Primary Energy Substitution
8
USA - USSR Infrastructure Substitution
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Substitution of DRAM Technologies
DRAMs - market shares in bits sold
100
99
4K
64M
16K
64K
256K
4M
16M
1M
10
90
F/(1-F) bits
Percent
50
1
?
10
0.1
1K
256M
1

0.01
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
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Technological Diffusion Dynamics
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Telephone Lines per 100 Inhabitants
12
Cellular Subscribers per 100 Inhabitants
100.000
Austria
China
Germany
10.000
Finland
Hungary
1.000
Korea (Rep. of)
Poland
Singapore
0.100
Ukraine
United States
0.010
0.001
1980
1990
2000
13
PCs per 100 Inhabitants
14
IP Hosts per 100 Inhabitants
100.000
Austria
China
10.000
Germany
Finland
1.000
Hungary
Korea (Rep. of)
Poland
0.100
Singapore
Ukraine
0.010
United States
0.001
0.000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
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France - Transport and Communication Volume
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Finland - Telephone Minutes Called
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Finland Telecom Economics

• 280/yr - Average tariff fixed lines (2000)
• 350/yr - Average tariff GSM lines (2000)
• 2000 - Infrastructure investment costs per new
  subscription (1990 to 1999 average)
• gt10 yrs - Average investment payback (at 7
  interest and 350/yr recovery, i.e. no operation
  expenditures or profits)

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DRAM Prices
Grübler, 2000
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Brazil Ethanol Learning Curve
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The Innovation
Chain

• Research and development
• Demonstration projects
• Early deployment (cost buy-down)
• Widespread dissemination

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Uncertainty and Technological Learning
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Why It Is Hard to Do?

• Highly non-linear functionnon-convex, non-smooth
• Complex stochastic problem
• Huge parameter spaceexample 1030 combinations
  400years for high-end workstation

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Background

• Global (one region) MESSAGE model
• 10 technological clusters - hydrogen economy and
  new renewables
• Full-scale model with more than 100 technologies
• Levelized costs, supply curves for all resources,
  full uncertainty

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Implementation

• Cray T3E-900 at National Energy Research
  Scientific Computer Center, US
• 640-processor machine with a peak CPU performance
  of 900 MFlops per processor

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Global CO2 Emissions in 2100
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Global CO2 Emissions in 2100
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