B.%20Complex%20Judgment%20Tasks

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B. Complex Judgment Tasks

• Information Integration Tasks
• Impression Formation
• How attractive is a person?
• How good is an applicant?
• Complex Prediction Tasks
• How much will the US economy grow next year?
• How well will an applicant perform in a job?
• Lens Model
• Averaging vs. Adding of Information

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Explicit vs. Implicit Rules(Linear Models vs.
Experts)

• Brunswicks Lens Model
• Linear model of observed outcome values
• Actuarial Model
• Linear model of expert predictions
• Bootstrap Model
• - for further information read
• Slovic Lichtenstein, OBHDP, 1971, 6, 649-744.

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Why dont we always use actuarial models to
predict?

• (a) Dont have the data to construct actuarial
  model.
• (b) Prediction is not important enough to warrant
  the trouble.
• (c) Prediction is important but not repetitive.
  If made only once of twice - not worth the to
  build actuarial model.
• (d) Actuarial prediction based on PAST
  relationships between predictors and criterion
  Wont be accurate if environment changes.
• (e) Lacks common-sense cues Criterion may be
  influenced by a large number of variables that
  operate at different points in time and under
  different circumstances hard to put all of them
  into an actuarial model.

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Intuitive Expert Judgments

• Advantages Solves the problems with actuarial
  models.
• (a) Dont need past data.
• (b) Can be quick.
• (c) Can use available time for additional info
  gathering
• (d) Can be sensitive to changes in environment
• (e) Human judge can deal with a large number of
  common sense cues

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Intuitive Expert Judgments

• Disadvantages
• (a) Inconsistency due to fatigue, boredom,
  distractions, etc. To err is human is true
  Computers implementing an actuarial model never
  do.
• (b) Because the experts strategyin using the
  information provided by predictor variables is
  unconscious (i.e., intuitive), experts might
  change their strategy from time to time.
• (c) Different experts may use different
  strategies.

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Consistency of Intuitive Judgments

• In Medical Diagnoses