THE%20RISE%20OF%20THE%20NEW%20LEFT

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THE RISE OF THE NEW LEFT
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OLD v. NEW LEFT

• Old Left (1940s-1980s) sought to seize power
  through armed revolution adhered to Marxist
  ideology sought to impose radical social
  programs most successful against retrograde
  dictatorships (Batista in Cuba, Somoza in
  Nicaragua)
• New Left (1990s-present) seeks to win power
  through democratic elections promotes a vague
  agenda of social justice and radical reform
  (not revolution) most successful under
  conditions of glaring social inequality (e.g.
  Venezuela, Brazil)

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THE NEW LEFT ORIGINS

• Economiclack of growth (through 2003), poverty
  and inequality, frustration with Washington
  Consensus
• Politicalweakness of representative
  institutions, inattention to poor, persistence of
  corruption possibility of victory
• Internationalwar in Iraq, opposition to Bush
  policies and growing distaste for American
  society

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RECENT MEMBERSHIP

• Hugo Chávez, Venezuela (1998, 2004, 2006, 2011)
• Lula, Brazil (2002, 2006) and Dilma Rousseff
  (2010)
• Néstor Kirchner and Cristina Fernández, Argentina
  (2003, 2007, 2011)
• Evo Morales, Bolivia (2005, 2009)
• Daniel Ortega, Nicaragua (2006, 2010)
• Manuel Zelaya, Honduras (2006)
• Rafael Correa, Ecuador (2006, 2010)
• Fernando Lugo, Paraguay (2008)
• Mauricio Funes and Salvador Sánchez Cerén, El
  Salvador (2009, 2014)
• José Mujica, Uruguay (2010)
• Ollanta Humala, Peru (2011)
• Near-Miss
• Andrés Manuel López Obrador, Mexico (2006)
• ousted by constitutional coup

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THE NEW LEFT GOALS

• Domesticwinning power, rearranging electoral
  alignments overturning status quo, possibly
  through institutional reform changing policy
  direction
• Hemisphericgaining support throughout Latin
  America (invoking Bolivarian dream), reducing
  U.S. hegemony (and opposing FTAA)
• Globalchallenging international order, forging
  alliances with developing world and non-aligned
  nations

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CLARIFICATION

• Disenchanted masses in Latin America ?
• Voters for pink tide candidates ?
• Leftist candidates for office ?
• Leftist winners of presidential elections ?
• Pro-Chávez chief executives ?
• Hugo Chávez
• Notes
• Tidal swell is spontaneous, not organized
• Rivalries and defections

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THE PROBLEM WITH HUGO

• Used language of the street (including the Arab
  street)e.g., the devil speech
• Sat atop petroleum
• Put money where his mouth was
• Broke established rules of the game
• Played off resentment of Bush, U.S. power
• Challenged Washington Consensus
• Went for high stakes
• Sought rearrangement of prevailing world order
• And now? With changes in leadership?

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TERMS OF CONTESTATION

• New Left
• Popular support
• Control of executive branch
• Radical agendas
• Polarizing discourse
• GW Bush as target of wrath
• Conservative opposition
• Money (can organize demonstrations etc.)
• Control of media
• U.S. support
• Institutional bastions (eg legislature and/or
  courts)
• Issue degree of organization

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NEW LEFT IN DECLINE?

• Constitutional coups
• Argentina Kirchner Peronists defeated
• Brazil impeachment against Rousseff
• Venezuela loss of legislature
• Bolivia re-election denied
• What does this mean?
• Self-destruction or conservative strength?

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U.S. VISIONS FOR LATIN AMERICA

• Democraticwith tilt to right or center-right
• Prosperouswith commitment to free-market
  policies and ties to United States
• Unifiedunder U.S. leadership
• Peacefulin view of unanimity
• Deferentialfollowing U.S. lead in global arena

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REALITY CHECK

• Democracy broad ideological spectrum, from
  left to right
• Prosperity mixed economies rejection of
  Washington Consensus, FTAs, and FTAA
• Ideology diversity rather than unity
• Outlooks anti-U.S. attitudes strong among large
  share of population (improvement with Obama)
• Alliances rejection of U.S. leadership and
  rules of the game (through Obama first term)

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CHALLENGING AMERICAN MYTHS

• The Cherished Assumptionfreely elected leaders
  will support U.S. policy
• The Western Hemisphere ideathe new world is
  distinct from old, will forge common front in
  international arena
• Democracy rationale for regime changefree
  elections as protective shield
• The hegemonic presumptionthe United States can
  dictate political life in Latin America

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The End.