Improvement of the road section

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Improvement of the road section of Gerede -
Gürbulak Border Gate and Impacts Evaluation
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Improvement of the road section of Gerede -
Gürbulak Border Gate and Impacts Evaluation
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Improvement of the road section of Gerede -
Gürbulak Border Gate and Impacts Evaluation

• Project Description
• Required works to be done under this project
• Preparation of design and safety projects of all
  applications
• Determination of project consultant
• Guardrail installation (totally 250 km)
• Pedestrian overpass/underpasses installation
  (totally 10 locations)
• Installation of signalisations on existing
  junctions (totally 12 location )
• Implementation of new interchange (junctions)
  (totally 2 locations)
• Existing junctions improvement (totally 5
  locations)
• Select the appropriate impact measures
• Select the appropriate analysis method
• Evaluating economic impacts of the project.
• Estimated investment cost
• 52 Million

4
Improvement of the road section of Gerede -
Gürbulak Border Gate and Impacts Evaluation

• This project route
• is part of future TEN-T Road Network for Turkey
  and priority project route in TINA Turkey study
• is HLG short-term priority project/and route
• is providing connection to Zonguldak, Filyos,
  Samsun and Trabzon Ports of Black Sea Region
• This project section is a transit route between
  Europe, Caucasia and Asia
• Part of TINA for Turkey Core Road Network and
  priority route in TINA study
• The objective of TINA for Turkey is to define a
  multi-modal transport network (Core Network)
  designed to extend the European Union's TEN-T
  network into Turkey
• Now, the Core Transport Network that is
  determined at the end of TINA study, is
  negotiated between EC and Turkey within chapter
  21 Trans European Network
• This project route is a part of
• continuation of Pan-European Transport Corridor
  IV
• E-road, HLG south-east axes, BSEC, TRACECA, ECO,
  UN/ESCAP, TEM and Euro-Asian Road

5
Improvement of the road section of Gerede -
Gürbulak Border Gate and Impacts Evaluation

• Project General Objectives
• Preventing accident with fatal, injured and
  damaged,
• Capacity increase in mountainous region,
• Reducing travel time on whole route,
• Generate new economic development and create new
  demand,
• Improving the accessibility,
• Increasing road safety level on TRACECA route.
• Decreasing the user coast

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Improvement of the road section of Gerede -
Gürbulak Border Gate and Impacts Evaluation

• Actual and Future Demand
• Traffic Volume (2008 - vehicles/day)
• Maximum AADT 7.070
• Minimum AADT 3.150
• Heavy vehicle changing ratio 25 - 35
• Traffic Volume (forecasting in TINA project, 2020
  vehicles / day)
• Future traffic flows (2020) are estimated using a
  transport demand model.
• The model uses a single socio-economic scenario
  and three different infrastructure scenarios
  (Reference, Long-term Investment and Alternative
  Scenario)
• AADT5.000 - 10.000
• Financial Analysis
• PPP application has not been available yet.
• There isnt any existing FA study.
• There is no any updated Feasibility study

7
Improvement of the road section of Gerede -
Gürbulak Border Gate and Impacts Evaluation

• According to our estimations (if Turkey has
  enough financing sources)
• start year of the project 2013
• end year of project 2015
• Roughly estimated cost 52 million (for whole
  project)
• This project is not suitable directly for
  interesting of private investors with PPP
  approach at the moment.
• Economic benefit due to reduction in number of
  accidents resulting from increase in geometrical
  and physical standards
• Time savings due to increase in vehicle speed

8
Improvement of the road section of Gerede -
Gürbulak Border Gate and Impacts Evaluation

• After project implemented
• It is estimated that the user costs will decrease
  50.
• According to 2011 current prices, an estimated
  profit of 75 million will be provided when the
  result of reduction of user cost.
• Estimated B/C ratio is 1,44
• Economic impacts (value added, property value
  etc)will increase.

• Existing situation
• Divided highway with interrupted flow increase
  road user impacts (money cost of travel, travel
  time, safety, comfort, reliability etc.)
• According to 2009 accident data, there are 939
  accidents on Gerede-Gürbulak road section. On 939
  accidents, 113 deaths, 4.913 injuries and 2.017
  vehicle property damages has occurred.

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Improvement of the road section of Gerede -
Gürbulak Border Gate and Impacts Evaluation
Regional integration criteria Regional integration criteria Regional integration criteria Regional integration criteria Regional integration criteria Regional integration criteria Regional integration criteria Regional integration criteria
The project is located on TRACECA Route TRACECA Route TRACECA Route TRACECA Route On access link to TRACECA Route On access link to TRACECA Route Other
The project is located on X X X X ? ? ?
The project impact on regional cooperation is High Medium Medium Low Low Low None
The project impact on regional cooperation is X ? ? ? ? ? ?
The project impact on regional development is High Medium Medium Low Low Low None
The project impact on regional development is X ? ? ? ? ? ?
The infrastructure directly interconnects More than two countries More than two countries Two countries Two countries Two countries One country One country
The infrastructure directly interconnects X X ? ? ? ? ?

• Total annual vehicle that is entered into Turkey
  and exited from Turkey
• Gürbulak Border Gate to IRAN ? 232.447 vehicles /
  year (Heavy vehicle ratio 71, in 2010)

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Improvement of the road section of Gerede -
Gürbulak Border Gate and Impacts Evaluation
Economic criteria Economic criteria Economic criteria Economic criteria Economic criteria Economic criteria Economic criteria Economic criteria Economic criteria
Economic assessment Feasibility Pre feasibility Pre feasibility Estimated costs Estimated costs Ongoing studies Ongoing studies No action
Economic assessment ? ? ? X X ? ? ?
Estimated investment volume Below 12 Mln Euro Between 12/20 Mln Euro Between 12/20 Mln Euro Between 12/20 Mln Euro Between 12/20 Mln Euro More than 20 Mln Euro More than 20 Mln Euro More than 20 Mln Euro
Estimated investment volume ? ? ? ? ? X X X
Estimated investment period Equal or below 5 years Between 6 and 12 years Between 6 and 12 years Between 6 and 12 years Between 6 and 12 years Longer than 12 years Longer than 12 years Longer than 12 years
Estimated investment period X ? ? ? ? ? ? ?
Private funding is interested in the project Yes Yes Yes Yes No No No No
Private funding is interested in the project ? ? ? ? X X X X
Legal framework for concession is In place In place In process In process In process In process Not available Not available
Legal framework for concession is ? ? X X X X
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Improvement of the road section of Gerede -
Gürbulak Border Gate and Impacts Evaluation
Technical criteria Technical criteria Technical criteria Technical criteria Technical criteria
The project is creating a new link or node or upgrading an existing ones Upgrade Upgrade New New
The project is creating a new link or node or upgrading an existing ones X X ? ?
The project impacts on inter-modality are High Medium Low None
The project impacts on inter-modality are X ? ? ?
The project impacts on travel costs reduction for international transport are High Medium Low None
The project impacts on travel costs reduction for international transport are X ? ? ?
The project impacts on travel time savings for international transport are High Medium Low None
The project impacts on travel time savings for international transport are X ? ? ?
The project impacts on reliability/safety are Significant Medium Not relevant None
The project impacts on reliability/safety are X ? ? ?
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Improvement of the road section of Gerede -
Gürbulak Border Gate and Impacts Evaluation
Environmental criteria Environmental criteria Environmental criteria Environmental criteria Environmental criteria Environmental criteria
Infrastructure negative environmental effects None Minimal Minimal Serious Irreversible
Infrastructure negative environmental effects ? X X ? ?
Changes in emission due to traffic Sensible reduction Medium Minimal None Increasing
Changes in emission due to traffic ? ? X ? ?
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Improvement of the road section of Gerede -
Gürbulak Border Gate and Impacts Evaluation
Policy based criteria Policy based criteria Policy based criteria Policy based criteria
Project has firm commitment of government and countries YES Master Planning or Similar YES Other Governmental papers NO
Project has firm commitment of government and countries X ? ?
Project depends on completion of other upstream investments NO YES Investment already ongoing/ready YES Investment not yet started
Project depends on completion of other upstream investments X ? ?
The project is ready for implementation Immediate Less than 3 years More than 3 years
The project is ready for implementation ? X ?