CAPRI Common Agricultural Policy Regional Impact

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CAPRICommon Agricultural Policy Regional Impact
Farm Type ModelsFor CAPRI - Wolfgang Britz,
IAP, Bonn -
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Content

• Background
• Why farm type models ?
• Data sources
• Integration in the data base
• Integration in the modeling system
• Exploitation
• Unresolved issues

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Background

• Positive external evaluation of CAPRI,context
  study on quantitative tools initiated by DG-ENV
• Project for DG-ENV (01/2001-3/2003)
• co-ordinated by John Helming, LEI, The Hague
• partner LEI Bonn Montpellier
• Aims
• improved environmental indicators (N-mass flow
  model, water balances, plant protection)
• farm types
• scenario analysis

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Why farm type models

• Farm specialization matters
• regarding environmental impacts(stocking
  densities etc.)
• regarding policy impacts (farm specific ceilings)
• regarding model behaviorltgt linkages between
  activities, especially fodder crops and
  animals

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Data Sources

• Farm Accounting Data Network (FADN)
• single farm records covering revenues and costs,
  production program and certain yields, premiums
• but no input allocation
• not always clear link to administrative NUTS
  regions(instead own FADN regions)
• differences in activity/product
  breakdowncompared to CAPRI
• restricted access due to confidentiality issues

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Integration in the data base

• In a first step, farms were assigned to NUTS II
  regionsfinding in parallel optimal correction
  factors for yields and activities
• The five most frequent types by specialization
  were selected, and the remaining farms aggregated
• 5 to 6 farm types break downconsistently one
  NUTS II region ex post
• each farm type features an own production
  program,own I/O coefficients and thus own
  costs/revenues

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Integration FADN in the data base
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Integration in the modeling system

• Each farm type is treated like a NUTS III
  region
• No change in the structure of the supply models
• Consequently, now about 1050 regional aggregate
  modelson the supply side
• aggregation to NUTS II/Member State/EUfor
  premium and market modules

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Exploitation
HTMLtables
CAPRIResultData Base
DAOUT
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Unresolved Issues

• Continuous access to FADN data
• Farm specific constraints ?
• Farm specific policy ceilingse.g. stocking
  density restrictions
• tremendous increase in memory allocationand
  solution time of complete modelling system