A.Montani; Eurorisk-Preview

1
PREVIEW in some words(PREVention, Information
and Early Warning)

• A project funded by the European Commission
• 23 millions of eligible costs, 14 millions
  granted
• New information services to help risk management
• Gathering users needs
• Using the most advanced research and technology
• Validation on operational platforms
• 58 partners from 15 nations
• Scientists
• Operators
• Industrial companies
• End Users
• 45 months performance schedule (start on 1 April
  2005) and yearly budget reviews
• COSMO partners involved DWD, ARPA-SIM, ARPA
  Piedmont, Meteoswiss

2
Windstorms Workpackage(ARPA-SIM activity)
Provision of probabilistic forecasts and
warnings of strong wind events at all time ranges
up to 10 days ahead.

• Ensemble Forecast inputs
• Medium-Range (3-10 days)
• ECMWF
• ARPA-SIM (COSMO-LEPS) (Days 3-5)
• Short-Range (1-2 days) multi-model ensemble
  consisting of contributions from
• Meteo-France - PEACE
• DWD - SRNWP-PEPS
• Met.no - TEPS/LAM EPS
• Met Office - LAMEPS/EPS
• Post-processing

3
Clone of COSMO-LEPS suite over NW Europe

• Generation of a new limited-area ensemble
  forecast system for the prediction of wind and
  wind gusts over North-Western Europe.
• Aim provision of site-specific wind forecasts
  (wind speed, wind direction other variables to
  diagnose wind gust) to be post-processed and
  combined with other products by UK Met. Office.
• Point forecasts are calculated over 197 stations.
• Similar configuration as the operational
  COSMO-LEPS (red), but both clustering and
  integration domain are shifted northwards (blue).

Experimental suite started on September
2006. Computer time provided by an ECMWF special
project between ARPA-SIM and UK Met Office.
4
Medium-range plain flood Workpackage(ARPA-SIM
activity)

• Provision of probabilistic forecasts so as to
  generate ensemble flood forecasts to be compared
  with the deterministic approach for ranges
  between 3 and 10 days.
• The upper-Danube river basin has been selected as
  pilot river basin and the test period will
  include the large floods of August 2002.
• EPS COSMO-LEPS (10 members) reruns performed
  for the period 20 July 31 August 2002.