AIARD Conference

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AIARD Conference

• Colonel John Toolan
• Director, U.S. Marine Corps
• Command Staff College

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Mission Analysis
COA Dev 1
OVERARCHING CAMPAIGN DESIGN
Program Refinement Troop to Task
OPT
OPT
OPT
OPT
OPT
COA Dev 2
OPT WARGAME
Integration and Refinement
Prioritization and Sequencing
OPT
OPT
OPT
OPT
OPT
C-5 WARGAME
OVERARCHING CAMPAIGN DESIGN
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Center Of Gravity
GOI LEGITIMACY IN AL ANBAR
DESTABILIZATION

• Local / Provincial Governments
• Civil Services
• Functioning Judiciary
• Functioning Police Forces
• Functioning Local Economies
• Public Support

• Corrupt / Poor governments
• Lack of public services
• Crime
• AIF Kinetic Acts
• Tribal in-fighting
• Lack of Education

• Media
• Religion
• Local Population

• National
• NGOs
• Regional
• International

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Enemy Operational COG
Corrupt/ Poor Govt
Tribal Influence
Facilitate Education
Religion
Develop Ownership in GOI
Establish Rule of Law
Hopelessness
Reduce Coalition Visibility/CAP
Counter AIF IO Messages w/ Truth
Will
Coalition Kinetic Act
Destabilization
Deny Sanctuary
Indifference
Anger Shame
Build Legitimate govt w/ inter-ethnic
representation
Secure Borders
Develop Sustainable Employment
Fear
AIF IO Msg.
Isolate Pop. fm Insurgents
Provide Social Safety Net
Lack of Pub. Svc
Improve QOL
Geography
Lack of Educ.
Improve Public Services
Poverty
Violence
Foreign Influence
Rule of Law
Culture.
Targetable tasks
Disrupting effects
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Campaign Objectives

• Defeat AIF destabilization themes by
  strengthening Iraqi public understanding of
  coalition and GOI efforts.
• Build transition ISF to secure borders, promote
  rule of law neutralize AIF.
• Develop legitimate, inclusive and transparent
  government institutions that provide essential
  services, education.
• Improve quality of life that promotes public
  confidence and ownership in GOI.
• Create long term sustainable employment by
  developing economic capacity.

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Haditha 31K Haditha 31K Haditha 31K
Defeat AIF themes
ISF
Government
Improve QOL
Econ Capacity
Al Qaim- 200K Al Qaim- 200K Al Qaim- 200K
Defeat AIF themes
ISF
Government
Improve QOL
Econ Capacity
Al Anbar Campaign Objective Current Assessment
Hit 32K Hit 32K Hit 32K
Defeat AIF themes
ISF
Government
Improve QOL
Econ Capacity
Rawah-25K Rawah-25K Rawah-25K
Defeat AIF themes
ISF
Government
Improve QOL
Econ Capacity
Ramadi-450K Ramadi-450K Ramadi-450K
Defeat AIF themes
ISF
Government
Improve QOL
Econ Capacity
Al Rutbah-50K Al Rutbah-50K Al Rutbah-50K
Defeat AIF themes
ISF
Government
Improve QOL
Econ Capacity
Habbaniyah/ Khalidiyah-60K Habbaniyah/ Khalidiyah-60K Habbaniyah/ Khalidiyah-60K
Defeat AIF themes
ISF
Government
Improve QOL
Econ Capacity
An Nukhayb- 5K An Nukhayb- 5K An Nukhayb- 5K
Defeat AIF themes
ISF
Government
Improve QOL
Econ Capacity
Fallujah-200K Fallujah-200K Fallujah-200K
Defeat AIF themes
ISF
Government
Improve QOL
Econ Capacity
On Schedule Current Efforts Sufficient Sensitive Potential to escalate to Critical if not addressed Critical Immediate Assistance required
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Campaign Overview
AL QAIM
3
AR RAMADI
BAGHDAD
2
AR RUTBAH
4
AL ASAD
FALLUJAH

• Campaign Objectives
• Strengthening Iraqi public understanding
• Build transition ISF
• Develop legitimate, inclusive and transparent
  government institutions
• Improve quality of life
• Developing economic capacity

• Priority of Effort
• Governance
• Economics
• Security

1
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Haditha 31K Haditha 31K
Gen Health
Housing
Public Works
Food
Education
Security
Governance
Situation Template
Al Qaim- 200K Al Qaim- 200K
Gen Health
Housing
Public Works
Food
Education
Security
Governance
Rawah-25K Rawah-25K
Gen Health
Housing
Public Works
Food
Education
Security
Governance
Hit 32K Hit 32K
Gen Health
Housing
Public Works
Food
Education
Security
Governance
Ramadi-450K Ramadi-450K
Gen Health
Housing
Public Works
Food
Education
Security
Governance
Al Rutbah-50K Al Rutbah-50K
Gen Health
Housing
Public Works
Food
Education
Security
Governance
Fallujah-200K Fallujah-200K
Gen Health
Housing
Public Works
Food
Education
Security
Governance
Habaniyah/ Khalidiyah-60K Habaniyah/ Khalidiyah-60K
Gen Health
Housing
Public Works
Food
Education
Security
Governance
An Nukhayb- 5K An Nukhayb- 5K
Gen Health
Housing
Public Works
Food
Education
Security
Governance
Self Reliant Minimal to No Assistance Required Sensitive Potential to escalate to Critical if not addressed Critical Immediate Assistance required
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C/JIATF-W Campaign Roadmap Jul 2006 Jul 2023
Jul 08-Jul 13
Jul 06-Jul 08
Jul 13-Jul 23

• CAMPAIGN OBJECTIVES
• strengthen Iraqi public understanding
• Build transition ISF
• Develop legitimate, inclusive and transparent
  government institutions
• Improve quality of life
• develop economic capacity

END STATE A sustainable environment for Al
Anbars citizens and resumption of full
government control by legitimate Iraqi
authority.
OP AR RAMADI
OP WERV
OP AR RUTBAH
Elections
Elections
Elections
Governance Program
Legislation
Rule of Law
Administration Services
Training Education
ECONOMIC PROGRAM
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C/JIATF-W Campaign Roadmap Jul 2006 Jul 2023
Jul 08-Jul 13
Jul 06-Jul 08
Jul 13-Jul 23

• CAMPAIGN OBJECTIVES
• strengthen Iraqi public understanding
• Build transition ISF
• Develop legitimate, inclusive and transparent
  government institutions
• Improve quality of life
• Develop economic capacity

END STATE A sustainable environment for Al
Anbars citizens and resumption of full
government control by legitimate Iraqi
authority.
OP AR RAMADI
OP WERV
OP AR RUTBAH
GOVERNANCE PROGRAM
ECONOMIC PROGRAM
Banking
Agriculture
Utilities and Infrastructure
Natural Resources
Housing
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Campaign Objective 5 Create long term
sustainable employment by developing economic
capacity.
PURPOSE Increase Economic capacity in Al
Anbar

• Method
• Objectives
• 1. Expand Agriculture to support Iraqi needs with
  eventual
• capacity to export, Food basket of Iraq.
• 2. Develop sector business, based on Al Anbars
  natural resources
• (sulfur, phosphate, oil, natural gas, cement
  factories).
• 3. Establish local private banking, facilitating
  business and
• personal loan programs. Develop microfinance
  structure to
• support small business initiatives.
• 4. Expand and upgrade critical infrastructure
  (PWR, H20, sewage,
• telecom, road, rail) utilities for Govt
  (Police, ISF, Health
• Care, Judicial etc.)
• 5. Expand upgrade housing.
• Narrative Expand Al-Anbars agricultural
  capabilities IOT increase self sufficiency and
  reduce unemployment. Simultaneously expanding
  public service, banking and small business
  opportunities.
• Supporting plans / Time line See Timeline
  Slides 1 2

END STATE Secure, Stable, Sustainable,
Diversified, Economy capable of expanding under a
stable central government
MOEs - GDP per Capita - Unemployment Rate
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Economic Capacity 2yr Timeline
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Economic Capacity 15 year plan
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QUESTIONS?