Title: Concordance model
1 2Critical Tests of the Standard Model of
CosmologyGeorge F R EllisUniversity of Cape
TownUnity of the Universe Meeting
31 The consensus model
- We now have a consensus standard model of
cosmology, based on the Robertson-Walker
geometries and standard physics. - It seems to fit the observations well.
- However it has some mysteries.
- We need to test it to check its foundations.
4Visible
Invisible
The canonical picture (WMAP)
5- OBSERVABLE UNIVERSE
- 1 Baryons (4) and structure formation
- Radiation emitted and absorbed
- Major part of observational cosmology/astronomy
- 2 Dark matter (23) and structure formation
- No radiation emitted or absorbed
- Indirectly observed major part of what is
-
- 3 Dark energy (73) and cosmology
- No radiation emitted and absorbed
- Existence inferred dominant energy form
- PRE-OBSERVABLE UNIVERSE
- Interactions and geometry inferred
- Tested through relics (matter, radiation)
6 2 The Acceleration of the universe
- The explanation of dark energy is a central
pre-occupation of present day cosmology. - Its presence is indicated by the recent speeding
up of the expansion of the universe indicated by
supernova observations - confirmed by other observations such as those of
the cosmic background radiation anisotropies and
LSS/BAO studies - Its nature (whether constant, or varying) is a
major problem for theoretical physics - Not uniquely related to any known field or
particles -
- NB discovered, not predicted!
7The Acceleration of the universe
8Lab tests of Dark energy?
- Experimental detection of dark energy in a lab or
even the solar system is not feasible, for the
usual conception of DE as cosmological constant
or quintessence - CONTRAST With Dark Matter NO LAB TESTS
- But Unified approaches to DE and DM need to be
explored they may be facets of the same problem - Towards a unifying scalar field?
- Then evidence for dark matter is also evidence
for dark energy - But then changing (with scale) from attraction to
repulsion why and how? Can we test that change? - NO!
9- Without lab tests rely on theoretical
explorations and explanations for its nature - Cosmological constant but then10120 too small!
- Theoretical disaster!
- Quintessence unknown nature
- (arbitrary equation of state)
- Modified gravitational theories
- higher curvature terms
- Effects of higher dimensions
- ????
10- But how do we test these theoretical proposals?
- Many seem very arbitrary
- Just writing down a Lagrangian does not prove
such matter exists! - If the explanation only explains one thing
(acceleration) and has no other testable outcome,
it is an ad hoc explanation for that one thing
rather than a unifying scientific proposal - Unity of universe is missing!
- Needs some other independent experimental or
observational test but we dont have another
viable context for applying such tests - So how do we justify our proposed theoretical
explanations? - Why this form of quintessence?
- Why a cosmological constant?
11- 3 A Multiverse?
- Data is consistent with cosmological constant
- The major theoretical proposal to explain the
force causing acceleration is via a multiverse - The idea of a multiverse -- an ensemble of
universes or of universe domains has received
increasing attention in cosmology Andrei
Lindes talk - - separate places chaotic inflation
- Vilenkin, Linde, Guth, Weinberg
-
- - the Everett quantum multi-universe other
branches of the wavefunction Deutsch - - the cosmic landscape of string theory,
imbedded in a chaotic cosmology Susskind
12(No Transcript)
13- Application explaining fundamental
constants - Explaining the small value of the
cosmological constant - by anthropic argument Steven Weinberg
astro-ph/0005265 Susskind, The Cosmic Landscape - A multiverse with varied local physical
properties is one possible scientific
explanation - an infinite set of universe domains allows all
possibilities to occur, so somewhere things work
out OK - NB it must be an actually existing multiverse -
this is essential for any such anthropic argument - - too large a value for ? results in no
structure and hence no life, so anthropic
considerations mean that the value of ? we
observe will be small in fundamental units - - thus justifying an actual value extremely
different from the natural one predicted by
physics 120 orders of magnitude
14- Our Cosmic HabitatMartin Rees
Rees explores the notion that our universe is
just a part of a vast ''multiverse,'' or ensemble
of universes, in which most of the other
universes are lifeless. What we call the laws of
nature would then be no more than local bylaws,
imposed in the aftermath of our own Big Bang. In
this scenario, our cosmic habitat would be a
special, possibly unique universe where the
prevailing laws of physics allowed life to
emerge.
15- The Cosmic Landscape String Theory and the
Illusion of Intelligent DesignLeonard Susskind
Susskind concludes that questions such as "why is
a certain constant of nature one number rather
than another?" may well be answered by "somewhere
in the megaverse the constant equals this number
somewhere else it is that number. We live in one
tiny pocket where the value of the constant is
consistent with our kind of life. Thats it!
Thats all. There is no other answer to the
question". The anthropic principle is thus
rendered respectable and intelligent design is
just an illusion
16- Is this science, or scientifically based
philosophy? - Two central scientific virtues are testability
and explanatory power. In the cosmological
context, these are often in conflict with each
other. - The extreme case is multiverse proposals, where
no direct observational tests of the hypothesis
are possible, as the supposed other universes
cannot be seen by any observations whatever, and
the assumed underlying physics is also untested
and indeed probably untestable. - In this context one must re-evaluate what the
core of science is can one maintain one has a
genuine scientific theory when direct and indeed
indirect tests of the theory are impossible? - If one claims this, one is altering what one
means by science. One should be very careful
before so doing.
17- The key observational point is that the domains
considered are beyond the particle horizon and
are therefore unobservable. - See the diagrams of our past light cone by Mark
Whittle (Virginia)
18- Expand the spatial distances to see the causal
structure (light cones at 45o)
Observable
Start of universe
19- Now it is clear what the observational and causal
limits are - No
observational data whatever are available! - Better scale
- The assumption is we that can extrapolate to 100
Hubble radii, 101000 - Hubble radii, or much much more (infinity)
20- ?? Implied by known physics that leads to chaotic
inflation - The key physics (Coleman-de Luccia tunneling, the
string theory landscape) is extrapolated from
known and tested physics to new contexts the
extrapolation is unverified and indeed is
unverifiable it may or may not be true. The
physics is hypothetical rather than tested - Known Physics ? Multiverse ??
- NO!
- Known Physics ? Hypothetical Physics ?
Multiverse - Major Extrapolation
- It is a great extrapolation from known physics.
- This extrapolation is untestable it may or may
not be correct.
21- ?? Implied by inflation, which is justified by
CBR anisotropy observations - it is implied by some forms of inflation but not
others inflation is not yet a well defined
theory (and not a single scalar field has yet
been physically detected). Not all forms of
inflation lead to chaotic inflation. - For example inflation in small closed universes
22- However
- Chaotic inflation version can be disproved
if we observe a small universe have already seen
round the universe. Therefore spatially closed - Can search for identical circles in the CBR sky,
also CMB low anisotropy power at large angular
scales (which is what is observed). - A very important test as it would indeed disprove
the chaotic inflation variety of multiverse. - - But not seeing them would not prove a
multiverse exists. Their non-existence is a
necessary but not sufficient condition .
23- ?? Implied by probability argument the universe
is no more special than need be to create life. - Hence the observed value of the Cosmological
constant is confirmation (Weinberg). - But the statistical argument only applies if a
multiverse exists it is simply inapplicable if
there is no multiverse. - In that case we only have one object we can
observe we can do many observations of that one
object, but it is still only one object (one
universe), and you cant do statistical tests if
there is only one existent entity - We dont know the measure to use but the result
depends critically on it - This is in fact a weak consistency test on
multiverses, that is indicative but not
conclusive (a probability argument cannot be
falsified). Consistency tests must be satisfied,
but they are not confirmation unless no other
explanation is possible. Necessary is not
sufficient.
24- Implication of all the above
- The multiverse idea is not provable either by
observation, or as an implication of well
established physics. It may be true, but cannot
be shown to be true by observation or experiment.
- However it does have great explanatory power it
does provide an empirically based rationalization
for fine tuning, developing from known physical
principles. - Here one must distinguish between explanation and
prediction. Successful scientific theories make
predictions, which can then be tested. - The multiverse theory cant make any predictions
because it can explain anything at all. -
- Any theory that is so flexible is not testable
because almost any observation can be
accommodated.
25- The key issue is if we choose to let theory trump
observations, or insist on observational test of
our theories. - Multiverse proponents essentially propose the
former. Scientific conservatism chooses the
latter. - The very nature of the scientific enterprise is
at stake in the multiverse debate - the multiverse proponents are proposing weakening
the nature of scientific proof in order to claim
that multiverses provide a scientific
explanation. - This is a dangerous tactic, as is proven by
history. -
- Note we are concerned with really existing
multiverses, not potential or hypothetical.
264 Inhomogeneity and the Acceleration of the
universe
- . The deduction of the existence of dark energy
is based on the assumption that the universe has
a Robertson-Walker geometry - - spatially homogeneous and isotropic on a large
scale. - The observations can at least in principle be
accounted for without the presence of any dark
energy, if we consider the possibility of
inhomogeneity - We abandon the Cosmological Principle that the
universe is the same everywhere
27LTB (Lemaitre-Tolman Bondi models
- Metric In comoving coordinates,
- ds2 -dt2 B2(r,t) A2(r,t)(dT2sin2 T dF2)
- where
- B2(r,t) A(r,t)2 (1-k(r))-1
- and the evolution equation is
- (Å/A)2 F(r)/A3 8pG??/3 - k(r)/A2
- with F (AA2)-1 8pG?M.
- Two arbitrary functions k(r) (curvature) and
F(r) (matter).
28We can fit the supernova data thats a theorem!
Mustapha, Hellaby, Ellis
29- Other observations??
- Can also fit cbr observations
- Larger values of r
- S. Alexander, T. Biswas, A. Notari, D. Vaid
Local void vs dark energy confrontation with
WMAP and Type IA supernovae (2007)
arXiv0712.0370. - Nb cbr dipole can then (partly) be because we
are a bit off-centre - Re-evaluate the great attractor analysis
- Quadrupole? Perhaps also (and alignment)
- Nucleosynthesis OK
- Baryon acoustic oscillations?
- Maybe more tricky
30scales probed by different observations
different distances
The Tegmark representation of power spectrum data
(2006)
31We find that such a model can easily explain the
observed luminosity distance-redshift relation
of supernovae without the need for dark energy,
when the inhomogeneity is in the form of an
underdense bubble centered near the observer.
With the additional assumption that the universe
outside the bubble is approximately described by
a homogeneous Einstein-de Sitter model, we find
that the position of the first CMB peak can be
made to match the WMAP observations.
32- Typical observationally viable model
- We live roughly centrally (within 10 of the
central position) in a large void - a compensated underdense region stretching to z
0.08 with d -0.4 and size 160/h Mpc to 250/h
Mpc, a jump in the Hubble constant of about 1.20,
and no dark energy or quintessence field - Solving inverse problem with inhomogenoeus
universe
33Large scale inhomogeneitydynamic evolution
- Can we find dynamics (inflation, HBB) that
matches the observations? - Same basic dynamics (FRW evolution along
individual world lines) but with distant
dependent parameters - Depends on the initial data, the amount of
inflation, and the details of the unknown
inflaton - If we are allowed usual possibilities of
arbitrarily choosing the potential, adding in
multiple fields as needed, and fine-tuning
initial conditions, then of course we can!
34Improbability
- It is improbable we are near the centre
- But there is always improbability in cosmology
- Can shift it
- FRW geometry
- Inflationary potential
- Inflationary initial conditions
- Position in inhomogeneous universe
- Which universe in multiverse
- Competing with probability 10-120 for ? in a FRW
universe. - Also there is no proof universe is probable.
- May be improbable!! Indeed, it is!!
35- Do We Live in the Center of the World?
- Andrei Linde, Dmitri Linde, Arthur Mezhlumian
- We investigate the distribution of energy
density in a stationary self-reproducing
inflationary universe. We show that the main
fraction of volume of the universe in a state
with a given density ? at any given moment of
time t in synchronous coordinates is concentrated
near the centers of deep exponentially wide
spherically symmetric holes in the density
distribution. - A possible interpretation of this result is that
a typical observer should see himself living in
the center of the world. Validity of this
interpretation depends on the choice of measure
in quantum cosmology. - Phys.Lett.B345203-210,1995
- arXivhep-th/9411111
36Improbability
- There is only one universe
- Concept of probability does not apply to a single
object, even though we can make many measurements
of that single object - There is no physically realised ensemble to apply
that probability to, unless a multiverse exists - which is not proven its a philosophical
assumption - and in any case there is no well-justified
measure for any such probability proposal - Can we observationally test the inhomogeneity
possibility? - Whatever theory may say, it must give way to such
tests
375 Direct Observational tests
- We have stalemate
- DE in FLRW can explain, so can LTB with no DE
- How to discriminate?
- It follows that
- direct observational tests of the Copernican
(spatial homogeneity) assumption are of
considerable importance - particularly those that are independent of field
equations or matter content
38Observational Tests
- only previously known direct tests use scattered
CMB photons - looking inside past null cone - if CMB very anisotropic around distant observers,
SZ scattered photons have distorted spectrum - but model dependent - good for void models but
misses, e.g., conformally stationary spacetimes - ideally we need a model-independent forensic
test ... is FLRW the correct metric?
Goodman 1995 Caldwell Stebbins 2007
391 Consistency test of LTB
- Must not have observational cusp at origin
implies singularity there - Vanderveld, Flangan and Wasserman
astro-ph/0602476 - Living in a void Testing the Copernican
Principle with distant supernovae, T Clifton, P
G Ferreira and K Land - Phys. Rev. Lett. 101 (2008) 131302
arXiv0807.1443 - Distance modulus ?dm(z) - (5/2)q0z in ?CDM, but
if this were true in void model without ? this
implies singularity - - Observational test will be available from
intermediate redshift supernovae in future
40Distance Measurements
- two effects on distance measurements
expansion
curvature bends null geodesics
- eg, positive curvature increases angular sizes
- These are coupled in FLRW, decoupled in LTB
41Measuring Curvature in FLRW
- in FLRW we can combine Hubble rate and distance
data to find curvature - independent of all other cosmological parameters,
including dark energy model, and theory of
gravity - can be used at single redshift
- what else can we learn from this?
422 Generic Consistency Test of FLRW
- since independent of z we can differentiate
to get consistency relation -
- depends only on FLRW geometry
- independent of curvature, dark energy, theory of
gravity - consistency test for homogeneity and isotropy
- should expect in FLRW
A general test of the Copernican Principle Chris
Clarkson, Bruce A. Bassett and Teresa Hui-Ching
Lu Phys.Rev.Lett.101011301,2008
arXiv0712.3457
43Testing the Copernican Assumption
- Copernican assumption hard to test ... but in
non-FLRW - even at center of symmetry
- simplest to measure H(z) from BAO
deceleration parameter measured from distance
measurements
deceleration parameter measured from Hubble
measurements
44Its only as difficult as dark energy...
- measuring w(z) from Hubble uses
- requires H(z)
- and from distances requires second derivatives
D(z) - simplest to begin with
via
see Clarkson Cortes Bassett JCAP08(2007)011
arXivastro-ph/0702670
453 Indirect Observational tests
- If the standard inverse analysis of the supernova
data to determine the required equation of state
shows - there is any redshift range where
- w p/? lt -1,
-
- this may well be a strong indication that one of
these geometric explanations is preferable to the
Copernican (Robertson-Walker) assumption, - for otherwise the matter model indicated by these
observations is non-physical (it has a negative
k.e.) - M.P. Lima, S. Vitenti, M.J. Reboucas Energy
conditions bounds and their confrontation with
supernovae data (2008) arXiv0802.0706.
46- The physically most conservative approach is to
assume no unusual dark energy but rather that
geometry might be responsible for the observed
apparent acceleration - This could happen due to large scale
inhomogeneity that can probably do the job, but
may not exist - Observational tests of the latter possibility is
as important as pursuing the dark energy (exotic
physics) option in a homogeneous universe - Theoretical prejudices as to the universes
geometry, and our place in it, must bow to
observational tests
476 Key Observational tests
- Consistency tests of the standard model
- CBR temperature with z
- T 2.75 (1z)
- Ages, including for objects at high redshift
- T0(object) T(observed) - T(lookback)
- Compare with physical age estimates
- Confirming that helium abundances as a function
of z are consistent with a primordial value of
25 at large distances (high redshifts) in all
directions. This probes very early times at large
comoving distance
48- Expand the spatial distances to see the causal
structure (light cones at 45o)
He4 at early times
49Key Observational tests
- Consistency tests continued
- Number anisotropy Checking that there is a 2
number count dipole parallel to the CBR
independent of source nature and evolution - G Ellis and J Baldwin,
- MNRAS 206, 377-381 (1984).
- Realistic equation of state not w lt -1
- Test inhomogeneous modes (LTB) on large scale
Clarkson Bassett and Lu - Test anisotropic (Bianchi) modes, by CBR
anisotropy and He4 (talk by Andrew Pontzen)
50Key Observational tests
- Alternative Global topology
- Closed or not? k 1 ??
- simply connected or not?
- ? Small universe?
- Have we seen right round the universe already,
maybe many times? - Identified images
- Number counts
- Circles in the CBR sky
- - Completely different status philosophically
517 Status of Testing in cosmology
- Dennis Sciama was always adventurous in both
physical and geometric speculation - But
- He insisted on the fundamental importance of the
relation between theory and observations - He always insisted on working out testable
consequences, and then seeing if the test could
actually be done - This remains good advice today
52Status of Untestable models?
- Multiverse claims
- Unobservable universe domains,
- Untested claimed physics
- Theory takes precedence over observations
- Reasonable philosophical proposal.
- Not proven science.
- Universe is a computer simulation
- How could this function?
- Where is this computer?
- How did it come to be there?
- What tests are possible of this claim?
- Neither sensible nor science!
53Testing the standard model
- Critical tests of the geometry and topology of
the standard model can be carried out. These will
either confirm the standard picture in a
satisfactory way, or will show that one of its
underlying assumptions is incorrect, and so will
imply the need for a major revision of the
consensus model. - I urge the importance of carrying out these
critical tests. We need to test the foundations
of standard cosmology in all possible ways - Dont just take them for granted!
54(No Transcript)
55- Can be disproved if we determine there are
closed spatial sections because curvature is
positive k 1 - The claim is that only negatively curved FRW
models can emerge in a chaotic inflation
multiverse. -
- a because Coleman-de Luccia tunneling only gives
k -1 - But that claim is already disputed, there are
already papers suggesting k1 tunneling is
possible - - indeed it depends on a very specific
speculative mechanism, which has not been
verified to actually work, and indeed such
verification is impossible. -
- b because the spatial sections are then
necessarily closed and are all that is, if they
extend far enough - but we could live in high density lump imbedded
in a low density universe the extrapolation of
k1 may not be valid - Neither
conclusive!
56- ?? It is the only physical explanation for fine
tuning of parameters that lead to our existence, - in particular the value of the cosmological
constant - n.b. theoretical explanation, not observation
- ?? It results from the theory that everything
that can happen, happens (Lewis, Sciama,
Deutsch) as suggested by Feynman QFT approach - n.b. theoretical explanation, not observation
- Which is more important in cosmology
- theory (explanation) or observations (tests
against reality) ?
57The Acceleration of the universe
- . The deduction of the existence of dark energy
is based on the assumption that the universe has
a Robertson-Walker geometry - - spatially homogeneous and isotropic on a large
scale. - The observations can at least in principle be
accounted for without the presence of any dark
energy, if we consider the possibility of
inhomogeneity - This can happen in two ways
- local and large scale
581 Local inhomogeneitydescription
-
- Multiple scales of representation
- Implicit averaging scale
Density
Distance
59Local inhomogeneitydynamic effects
-
- Averaging and calculating the field equations do
not commute - G. F. R. Ellis Relativistic cosmology its
nature, aims and problems". In General Relativity
and Gravitation, Ed B Bertotti et al (Reidel,
1984), 215. - Large scale effective equations include
polarisation terms, as in the case of
electromagnetism - P Szekeres Linearised gravitational theory in
macroscopic media - Ann Phys 64 599 (1971)
60Local inhomogeneitydynamic effects
- Averaging and calculating the field equations
- do not commute
- g1ab R1ab G1ab T1ab
Scale 1 - Averaging
- g3ab R3ab G3ab T3ab
Scale 3 - averaging process
- averaging gives different answer
61Local inhomogeneitythe averaging problem
-
- Problem covariant averaging of tensors,
particularly metric - Zalaletdinov approach using bitensors
- R Zalaletdinov The Averaging Problem in
Cosmology and Macroscopic Gravity Int. J. Mod.
Phys. A 23 1173 (2008) arXiv0801.3256 - Buchert equations for scalars gives modified
Friedmann equation - T Buchert Dark energy from structure a status
report. GRG Journal 40 467 (2008)
arXiv0707.2153. - Keypoint
- Expansion and averaging do not commute
- in any domain D, for any field ?
- ?tlt?gt - lt?t?gt lt??gt - lt?gtlt?gt
62Buchert equations The Raychaudhuri equation
for irrotational dust?tT ? - 4pG? (1/3)T2 -
2s2averages to give ?tltTgtD ? - 4pGlt?gtD
(2/3) lt (T - ltTgtD)2 gtD (1/3)ltTgtD2 2 lt s2 gtD
with correlations acting as a kinetic
pressure.The Friedmann equation
becomes3(åD/aD)2 - 8pGlt?gtD - ? - ltRgtD/2
QD/2where ltRgtD is the averaged curvature and
QD (2/3) lt (T - ltTgtD)2 gtD 2 lt s2 gtD is the
kinematical backreaction term resulting from
expansion and shear fluctuations,
63Local inhomogeneitydynamic effects
-
- Claim weak field approximation is adequate and
shows effect is negligible (Peebles) - Counter claim as there are major voids in the
expanding universe a weak-field kind of
approximation is not adequate - You have to model (quasi-static) voids and
junction to expanding external universe - D.L. Wiltshire "Cosmic clocks, cosmic variance
and cosmic averages" New J. Phys. 9, 377 (2007)
arXivgr-qc/0702082.
64Local inhomogeneitydynamic effects
-
- Fully explain it? Maybe
- B.M. Leith, S.C.C. Ng and D.L. Wiltshire
- "Gravitational energy as dark energy Concordance
of cosmological tests" Astrophys. J. 672, L91
(2008) arXiv07092535. - T. Mattsson Dark energy as a mirage (2007)
arXiv0711.4264 - But others disagree
- S. Rasanen Evaluating backreaction with the
peak model of structure formation
arxiv0801.2692 (2008). - But then it still can alter basic relations
density to curvature
652 Local inhomogeneityobservational effects
- Ricci focusing and Weyl focusing
- B. Bertotti The Luminosity of Distant Galaxies
Proc Royal Soc London. A294, 195 (1966). - d?/dv -RabKaKb - 2s2 ?2
- dsmn/dv - Emn
- T expansion
- s shear
- Rab Ricci tensor, determined pointwise by
matter - Eab Weyl tensor, determined non-locally by
matter
66- Robertson-Walker observations
- zero Weyl tensor and non-zero Ricci tensor.
- d?/dv -RabKaKb ?2
- dsmn/dv 0
-
- Actual observations are best described by zero
Ricci tensor and non-zero Weyl tensor - d?/dv - 2s2 ?2
- dsmn/dv - Emn
- This averages out to FRW equations when averaged
over whole sky - But supernova observations are preferentially
where there is no matter
67Local inhomogeneityobservational effects
- Dyer-Roeder equations are most used to represent
this - do not accurately do so no shear, only represent
reduced density along the bundle of null rays - C. C Dyer. R C Roeder, Observations in Locally
Inhomogeneous Cosmological Models Astrophysical
Journal, Vol. 189 167 (1974)
68Local inhomogeneityobservational effects
- Determination of Om made by applying the
homogeneous distance-redshift relation to SN
1997ap at z0.83 could be as much as 50 lower
than its true value - R. Kantowski The Effects of Inhomogeneities on
Evaluating the mass parameter Om and the
cosmological constant ? (1998)
astro-ph/9802208 - Swiss-Cheese models
- FRW regions joined to vacuum regions
- Exact inhomogeneous solutions
- V. Marra, E. W. Kolb, S. Matarrese Light-cone
averages in a Swiss-Cheese universe (2007)
arXiv0710.5505. - Debatable if enough to account for apparent
acceleration included in Wiltshire papers - Probably enough to significantly influence
conconcordance model values