Negotiation Indices

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european capacity building initiative
ecbi
A Brief History, and Looking Ahead Dr Benito
Müller Director, ECBI and Head of Fellowship
Programme
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UN Framework Convention on Climate Change

• Adopted at the Rio Earth Summit 1992
• Ratified by 189 out of 193 UN member countries
• Entry-into-force 24 March 1994

Kyoto Protocol

• Adopted at COP3 in Kyoto 11 December 1997
• Ratified by 152 out of 193 UN member countries
• Entry-into-force 16 February 2005

• Bundle of Greenhouse Gases (Annex A)
• Quantified Emission Reduction Targets (Annex B)
• Industrialised and economies in transition
  (Annex I)
• Flexibility Mechanisms International Emission
  Trading, Joint Implementation (JI), Clean
  Development Mechanism (CDM

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Friday, October 01, 2004 Cabinet Gives Approval
to Kyoto Protocol By Greg Walters and Anatoly
Medetsky Staff Writers
The Cabinet endorsed the Kyoto Protocol on
Thursday, making international implementation of
one of the most far-reaching and controversial
environmental initiatives a near certainty. "The
fate of the Kyoto Protocol depends on Russia. If
we ... rejected ratification, we would be the
ones to blame," Deputy Foreign Minister Yury
Fedotov told the Cabinet meeting.
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Russias Ratification of the Kyoto Climate Treaty
Historic Says Kofi Annan
Nairobi, 18 November, 2004 - In a move
underlining the vital links between the
environment and global peace, Russian Permanent
Representative to the UN Andrey Denisov today
formally handed over the accession papers on
ratification of the Kyoto Protocol to Kofi Annan,
Secretary-General of the United Nations. Mr.
Annan said in a statement I congratulate
President Putin and the Russian Federation for
their leadership in making it possible for the
Protocol to enter into force as it will, 90
days from tomorrow, on 16 February 2005. This is
a historic step forward in the worlds efforts to
combat a truly global threat. Most important, it
ends a long period of uncertainty.

                            


 
UNEP News Release 2004/49
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OAPEC Monthly Bulletin 20 November 2004
the importance of OAPEC member countries
joining the Protocol so as to participate fully
in the meetings of the Conference of Parties,
which operates as an assembly for the parties to
the Protocol.
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Some Recent Developments 1post 2012 or
beyond Kyoto
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Large Developing Countries The Gleneagles Joint
Declaration
Declaration at Gleneagles G8 Summit (6-8 July) by
Brazil China, India, Mexico, South Africa

• The Declaration proposes a new paradigm for
  international cooperation that must ensure
• Accessibility and affordability of climate
  friendly technologies to developing countries
  (requiring a concerted effort to address
  questions related to intellectual property
  rights)
• Additional financial resources (over and above
  current ODA) to enable developing countries to
  access such technologies
• Encouragement of North-South collaborative
  research on such technologies.

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Large Developing Countries The Gleneagles Joint
Declaration
Declaration at Gleneagles G8 Summit (6-8 July) by
Brazil China, India, Mexico, South Africa

• the Gleneagles Summit is an opportunity to give
  stronger impetus to the process of UN reforms
  aimed at providing a greater voice to developing
  countries in UN decision-making, and to send a
  positive message on international cooperation.
• the United Nations Framework Convention on
  Climate Change (UNFCCC) and its Kyoto Protocol
  establish a regime that adequately addresses the
  economic, social and environmental aspects of
  sustainable development.

• industrialised countries to take the lead in
  international action to combat climate change by
  fully implementing their obligations of reducing
  emissions and of providing additional financing
  and the transfer of cleaner, low emission and
  cost-effective technologies to developing
  countries
• there is an urgent need for the development and
  financing of policies, measures and mechanisms to
  adapt to the inevitable adverse effects of
  climate change that are being borne mainly by the
  poor.

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The United States The Federal Level
The Asia-Pacific Partnership on Clean Development
and Climate
White House Fact Sheet 27 July 2005 The
Partnership will focus on voluntary practical
measures taken by these six countries in the
Asia-Pacific region to create new investment
opportunities, build local capacity, and remove
barriers to the introduction of clean, more
efficient technologies and help each country
meet nationally designed strategies for improving
energy security, reducing pollution, and
addressing the long-term challenge of climate
change.
US unveils alternative plan to Kyoto treaty
Financial Times, Asia deal on table to counter
Kyoto Financial Times, US in plan to bypass
Kyoto protocol The Guardian, Le pacte
climatique Asie-Pacifique "supérieur" à Kyoto
(Canberra) Le Monde Bush startet Alternative zu
Kyoto Neue Zürcher Zeitung, Clima, accordo a
sei parallelo a trattato di Kyoto Corriere della
Sera,
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The United States The State Level
August 24, 2005 9 States in Plan to Cut Emissions
by Power Plants By ANTHONY DePALMA
Officials in New York and eight other
Northeastern states have come to a preliminary
agreement to freeze power plant emissions at
their current levels and then reduce them by 10
percent by 2020, according to a confidential
draft proposal.
The regional initiative would set up a
market-driven system to control emissions of
carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse gas, from
more than 600 electric generators in the nine
states. Environmentalists who support a federal
law to control greenhouse gases believe that the
model established by the Northeastern states will
be followed by other states, resulting in
pressure that could eventually lead to the
enactment of a national law.
California, Washington and Oregon are in the
early stages of exploring a regional agreement
similar to the Northeastern plan.
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EU Emissions Trading Scheme an entity-based
domestic cap and trade emissions allowance
programme Timing three-year mandatory
start-up phase from 2005 to 2007 five-year
mandatory Kyoto phase from 2008 to 2012, to be
continued. Allocation method Member States
may auction up to 5 for 2005 to 2007 Member
States may auction up to 10 for 2008 to 2012
Common allocation criteria transparency,
comments by the public, scrutiny by the Commission
Coverage five major downstream sectors with
thresholds start with carbon dioxide
Monitoring In accordance with EU-wide plant
level monitoring guidelines Currency
Allowances, linked to Kyoto Assigned Amount Units
and entitling emission of 1 ton of
CO2equivalent Sanctions Financial penalty of
40 / 100 per non-surrendered allowance (tonne
of CO2) Making up for a shortfall in following
year
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Economics The Issue of Competitiveness
Carbon Trust/Oxera Study Headline results for Kyoto Period (2008-2012) () Carbon Trust/Oxera Study Headline results for Kyoto Period (2008-2012) () Carbon Trust/Oxera Study Headline results for Kyoto Period (2008-2012) () Carbon Trust/Oxera Study Headline results for Kyoto Period (2008-2012) () Carbon Trust/Oxera Study Headline results for Kyoto Period (2008-2012) () Carbon Trust/Oxera Study Headline results for Kyoto Period (2008-2012) () Carbon Trust/Oxera Study Headline results for Kyoto Period (2008-2012) ()
Sector marginal cost increase price increase marginal cost increase passed on to customers Change in quantity demanded Change in operating profit (EBITDA) Net Value at stake
Aluminium smelting 5 3 66 6 31 51
Cement (base line) 55 14 83 4 25 1.9
Cement (competition) 55 11 66 8 13 1.9
Cold-rolled steel 7 3 67 5 17 4
Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation and Amortisation The base-line case assumes that the UK cement market is largely domestic, which is why a competition scenario was also modelled, largely on the situation in Spain, assuming 30 percent non-EU imports. Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation and Amortisation The base-line case assumes that the UK cement market is largely domestic, which is why a competition scenario was also modelled, largely on the situation in Spain, assuming 30 percent non-EU imports. Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation and Amortisation The base-line case assumes that the UK cement market is largely domestic, which is why a competition scenario was also modelled, largely on the situation in Spain, assuming 30 percent non-EU imports. Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation and Amortisation The base-line case assumes that the UK cement market is largely domestic, which is why a competition scenario was also modelled, largely on the situation in Spain, assuming 30 percent non-EU imports. Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation and Amortisation The base-line case assumes that the UK cement market is largely domestic, which is why a competition scenario was also modelled, largely on the situation in Spain, assuming 30 percent non-EU imports. Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation and Amortisation The base-line case assumes that the UK cement market is largely domestic, which is why a competition scenario was also modelled, largely on the situation in Spain, assuming 30 percent non-EU imports. Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation and Amortisation The base-line case assumes that the UK cement market is largely domestic, which is why a competition scenario was also modelled, largely on the situation in Spain, assuming 30 percent non-EU imports.
The estimated impact of this for the UK utility
sector under the Kyoto scenario yields a final
position concerning the EU ETS impact of an
increase in profitability (EBITDA) of 63 percent
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Winning the Battle Against Global Climate Change

• Broader international participation in reducing
  emissions. The EU should continue to lead
  multilateral efforts to address climate change,
  but identify incentives for other major emitting
  countries, including developing countries, to
  come on board. During 2005, it should explore
  options for a future regime based on common but
  differentiated responsibilities.
• Inclusion of more sectors, notably aviation,
  maritime transport and forestry since
  deforestation in some regions significantly
  contributes to rising greenhouse gas
  concentrations in the atmosphere.
• A push for innovation in the EU to ensure the
  development and uptake of new climate-friendly
  technologies and the right decisions on long-term
  investments into the energy, transport and
  building infrastructure.
• The continued use of flexible market-based
  instruments for reducing emissions in the EU and
  globally, such as the EU emissions trading
  scheme.
• Adaptation policies in the EU and globally, which
  require more efforts to identify vulnerabilities
  and to implement measures to increase resilience.
  

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Developing Country Commitments
We specifically and clearly refuse to open at
this time any dialogue or process or indeed any
wording that could be in any way interpreted as
accepting to open discussions on new commitments
on non-Annex I countries. Venezuela on behalf of
G77China, COP8
Broadening commitments only for Annex I
countries
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SOG(India)E Conclusions

• Annex II commitments not met emissions still
  rising, transfers of finance/technology minimal.
• Numerical forecasts of relative or absolute
  growth in GHG emissions from models vary widely
  and hence cannot drive policies
• However, qualitative insights if replicated by a
  range of models are useful
• Low per-capita GHG emissions in India are due to
  sustainable lifestyles not poverty alone
• India is doing enough in mitigation of GHGs.
  Technological and Financial barriers to achieving
  identified energy initiatives must be removed

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SOG(China)E Abstract

• China is vulnerable to climate change
• China is a developing country with low per capita
  income. Chinas development, urbanization, growth
  of population and high proportion of coal in the
  energy mix will unavoidably make its efforts to
  reduce/limit GHG emissions more difficult without
  efficient international technological
  cooperation.
• China urges the international community to engage
  in practical technological cooperation in the
  future so as to combat climate change effectively
  and promote global sustainable development.

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EU and China Partnership on Climate Change

• The EU and China today 2 Sept 2005 agreed a
  Partnership on Climate Change as one of the major
  outcomes of the China-EU Summit. The Partnership
  will strengthen cooperation and dialogue on
  climate change and energy between the EU and
  China.

• The Partnership contains two concrete
  co-operation goals, to be achieved by 2020. The
  first is to develop and demonstrate, in China and
  the EU, advanced zero-emissions coal
  technology. The second cooperation goal is to
  significantly reduce the cost of key energy
  technologies and promote their deployment and
  dissemination.

• The Partnership will also reinforce EU-China
  cooperation on the Kyoto Protocols Clean
  Development Mechanism (CDM). It foresees a
  dialogue on the further development of this
  mechanism post 2012 in combination with an
  exchange of information and experience on the use
  of market-based mechanisms such as the EU
  emissions trading scheme.

Reference  MEMO/05/298    Date  02/09/2005
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Unavoided Climate Impacts
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Economic and Insured Losses with Trends. 1950
- 1999
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People Affected by Weather-related Disasters
1975-2001
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People Affected by Weather-related Disasters
1975-2001
19912000 Average Shares of Global Totals
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People Affected by Weather-related Disasters The
BaU Projection
Source B. Müller (2002), Equity in Climate
change The Great Divide
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This years catalogue of natural disasters, while
engendering a compassionate public response, has
shown beyond all doubt that the world needs to
get better at delivering humanitarian aid and
carrying out reconstruction. There is a UN
Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs
and an existing UN fund for emergency response.
But the fund is only 50 million and can be used
only to loan money to UN agencies that already
have pledges from donors. For reconstruction to
work, emergency assistance must also work, a fact
recognized within Europe by the creation of the
European Solidarity Fund in 2002. So it is clear
there is a need for a new humanitarian world fund
into which donors pay and from which humanitarian
coordinators can immediately draw funds when a
crisis threatens Our priority, then, must be to
reform the UNs Central Emergency Revolving Fund,
and the UN Office for Coordination of
Humanitarian Affairs will indeed later this
month make detailed proposals for this reformed
fund. At present six donors have pledged around
150 million (of which Britains contribution is
70 million, but we would like to see this grow.
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Some Recent Developments 2Montreal 2005
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Dions 3-is
Stephane Dion, Canadian Environment Minister,
President of the Conference proposed to structure
the conference agenda around 3-is

• implementation

• improvement

• imagination

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Implementation

• Adoption of the Marrakech Accords

• Adoption of the Kyoto Protocol Compliance Regime

Improvement

• CDM Strengthening of the CDM Board capacity

• CDM Allowing for programmes of activities

• JI Joint Implementation Supervisory Committee
  established

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Imagination
To the reticent nations, including the United
States, I say this there is such a thing as a
global conscience, and now is the time to listen
to it. Now is the time to join with others in the
global community, now is the time for resolve,
for commitment, and for leadership. And above all
now is the time for action, because only by
coming together can we make real and lasting
progress. Paul Martin, Prime Minister of Canada
Two-track strategy

• Kyoto Protocol post-2012 negotiation initiated

• Dion Dialogue on future action under the UNFCCC

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The Montreal Message
The Kyoto Protocol with its emission caps and
trading mechanisms is not only fully
operational, but has moved on from being
potentially merely a one-period wonder to the
only viable existing multilateral effort to
combat greenhouse gas emissions, which is here to
stay!
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The Way Forward
Strategy to address large Kyoto non-Party emission

• USA Link up regional US trading schemes with EU
  ETS and Kyoto flexible mechanisms

• Large Developing Country emitters address
  individual luxury emissions

• Levy on international air travel for adaptation
  funding

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• Thank you!