The new National Assembly and its tasks

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The new National Assembly and its tasks

• Presentation for seminar on The National
  Assembly for Wales as a legislature then, now,
  the future
• Cardiff, 22 September 2011
• Alan Trench
• (University of Edinburgh and the Constitution
  Unit, UCL Author, Devolution Matters blog)

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Four models of devolution

• Local administration of distributive functions
  (e.g. health, education, housing, planning)
  according to patterns and policy set elsewhere.
  Grant funding.
• Self government of matters of local concern
  so determining not just how functions are
  provided but what sorts of services there should
  be. Grant funding, perhaps with limited tax
  powers.
• Domestic autonomy deciding what government in
  a particular area looks like what services there
  should be, how they are organised and funded, and
  how law is enforced. Implies tax-raising powers,
  a major role in economic development, and control
  over much policing and justice.
• Full autonomy complete autonomy over matters
  other than foreign relations, defence,
  macro-economy (currency). Cf devolution max.
• (from Trench Devolution Plus in Scottish
  Affairs summer 2009, no. 68 )

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Wales and the four models

• Started out in 1999 somewhere as model 1.
• Quickly evolved to somewhere between models 2 and
  3 in aspiration, and to a degree in delivery.
• Institutional framework took a long time to catch
  up, though largely now has.
• However, Welsh devolution is and always has been
  executive-centric, and based on a dominant
  government rather than a strong legislature
• Scotland is pretty much in the same place,
  despite formal differences (devolution of
  policing, courts, the legal system)
• The Scotland bill, if enacted in its present
  form, would push Scotland more emphatically into
  model 3, but not by a huge distance from where it
  is now

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The impact of the referendum

• The referendum signals clearly that Wales wants
  to assume wide-ranging control of much domestic
  policy to be free to determine what sort of
  health system, education, planning or cultural
  policies there should be in Wales
• It also wants adequate funding, meaning (in
  Welsh Govts view) an unconditional block grant
  calculated on basis of relative need, plus some
  small taxes
• There are strong arguments for greater fiscal
  autonomy, at least along the lines recommended by
  the Holtham Commission
• There are structural problems with using the
  Barnett formula as the basis for funding this
  level of devolved autonomy (because of the way
  the system of consequentials ties devolved
  spending to that on comparable functions in
  England)

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The impact of the referendum II

• There are however significant legal restrictions
  on what the Assembly can do, beyond the limits of
  the principle that the Assemblys powers relate
  only to health, education and other subjects
  listed in Schedule 7
• From the defined powers model
• And from the need to secure Secretary of States
  consent for legislative provisions affecting
  functions of UK ministers, or UK public bodies

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The external environment facing the National
Assembly

• Scottish constitutional debates
• Scotland bill enacted by autumn 2012, or not
• Referendum on Scottish independence 2014-15
• Devolution max?
• UK spending restraint and Coalitions reshaping
  of the state
• Welfare benefits and the universal credit
• Reshaping of the health service range of
  services, outside providers, and even perhaps
  insurance or co-pays
• Higher education increasing tuition fees,
  near-abolition of teaching grant for humanities
  and social sciences, visa limits and overseas
  students
• The West Lothian commission and possible English
  votes for English laws
• Financial issues for Wales and the Ap Calman
  commission
• The future of the European Union and the Euro
• One certainty the UK that we knew in 1997-2007
  will not return, under any circumstances.

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So ...

• Wales wants to undertake a much more far-reaching
  sort of devolution to what was offered in 1997.
  That changes the role of the National Assembly.
• The National Assembly needs to operate in an
  increasingly complex world, and to find its own
  solutions to what it wants.
• But it will also need to respond to this rapidly
  changing wider world. If it does not seek to
  become master of its own destiny, it will be
  simply the subject of choices made by others.
• That calls for a wider role for a more assertive
  National Assembly than we have seen up to now.

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What sort of a National Assembly is that?

• One capable of more effective scrutiny of
  government
• One that serves as forum for debate about both
  policy matters, and wider issues of Waless
  future
• And takes charge of devolved powers that
  ensures that decisions relating to devolved
  matters (or what might be devolved) are
  determined in the legislature, not by executives
• As well as making Welsh legislation even if
  there isnt actually much of that
• And dealing with issues relating to individual
  constituents

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What does the National Assembly need to be able
to do that?

• Willingness routinely to challenge the Government
  
• Tendency to avoid this up to now supporting own
  party (especially with the One Wales
  coalition), or the wider project
• Misplaced part of showing how modern Welsh
  democracy works
• Focus on policy
• Needs a vigorous and robust committee system.
• Does the system of subject committees plus
  legislation committees get in the way?
• Committee support?
• Electoral system
• Ban on dual candidacy means that parties cant
  count on getting their strongest candidates into
  it
• And experienced members may be lost as well
• With re-drawing of Westminster constituency
  boundaries and reduction in number of MPs,
  co-terminosity will be lost, with problems for
  party organisation
• Both an opportunity to revisit size and electoral
  system used

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What does the National Assembly need to be able
to do that? II

• Number of members 60 is very few
• Even with a small front bench, there are only 47
  members available for committee work (including
  the deputy PO and party leaders)
• That of course creates the pressures that make
  the subject/legislation Cttee system hard to
  avoid, as AMs time is such a scarce commodity
• By comparison with other similar legislatures,
  the National Assembly is small

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The size of the National Assembly parallels from
abroad
Territory Population (millions) Number of elected legislators Number of resi-dents per legislator
Wales 3.0 60 50,000
Scotland 5.2 129 40,310

Schleswig-Holstein 2.8 95 29,474
Rheinland-Pfalz 4.0 101 39,604
Brandenburg 2.5 88 28,409
Saxony 4.1 132 31,061

Flemish Parliament 6.2 124 (Flanders 118) 50,000

Castile Leon 2.5 83 30,120
Galicia 2.8 75 37,333
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In conclusion ...

• The referendum result doesnt put an end to
  questions about Waless constitutional
  development. Its the start of a new chapter,
  not the end of a story.
• That new chapter is less about whether functions
  like health or education should be devolved or
  how much, but rather about the infrastructure
  that surrounds that (finance, organisation of
  executive and legislative branches)
• Wales will also be affected by the UKs rapidly
  changing constitution, even if it tries to stand
  where it is. These are not debates that Wales
  can opt out of.
• The National Assembly could serve as the key
  forum for the debates that need to happen and the
  decisions that need to be made
• As well as embrace the challenges that arise from
  its new role after the referendum, and the
  changes the referendum has wrought
• But it will need to change in order to do that,
  both in how it works and what AMs do
• And in its institutional structure and
  organisation.

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