Research Methods I

1
Research Methods I

• Introduction the module key concepts in
  methodology

2
The Module

• 11 lectures, 10 seminars
• End of module exam 2 hours (50)
• Applied project (2500 words) (25)
• Dissertation proposal (25)
• Methodology/philosophy of science
• Research design and data collection
• Data analysis

3
Why study Methodology?

• sciences have been created and revolutionised
  by those who have not stopped to analyse their
  own method of enquiry J.N.Keynes (1890) The
  Scope and Method of Political Economy, quoted
  from Hausman (1982 72)
• Think about what you are doing!!

4
What is Methodology?

• The study of methods and of philosophy (usually
  epistemology) underlying those methods (my
  definition)
• Commonly now only means what has been done
• Prescriptive vs. descriptive
• Problem of nocturnal vs. diurnal philosophy
• Most methodology has had prescriptive elements ?
  science

5
What is Science?

• Very controversial no one definition
• Can define it in terms of outcomes, progress
  processes, methods
• Outcomes explanations predictions changes in
  society (e.g. U? revolution) laws (usually
  generalities of form if X then Y) theories
  models necessity

6
What is Science?

• Progress verification (positivism)
  falsification (Popper) novel facts (Lakatos)
  puzzle-solving and consensus (Kuhn) social goals
  (as above)
• Processes systematic social peer review
  critical objectivity scientific language
  routine and repetition (Shipman) scientific
  method

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What is Science?

• Methods formulation and testing of hypotheses
  abstraction ceteris paribus experiment
• Economists want to mimic natural science
  (particularly physics) (cf. Mirowski, 1989)
• Induction (a posteriori method) past experience
  ? generalities
• Problem of induction world is changing can
  observe 100 white swans, but next one might be
  black

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Deduction

• Move from assumptions to conclusions
• E.g. syllogism (the form of deduction)
• A1 Peter was in London at 9pm
• A2 the murder was committed at 9pm in Bristol
• A3 people can be in only one place at one time
• Conclusion Peter did not commit the murder
• Assumptions can be covering laws
• Then ? deductive-nomological model

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Deduction

• E.g. D-N model
• A1 Peter is a cat (particular case)
• A2 all cats have whiskers (covering law)
• Conclusion Peter has whiskers
• Beware hidden assumptions
• Beware silly or unjustifiable assumptions

10
John Stuart Mill

• J.S.Mill (1806-73) one of the 19th centurys
  most influential thinkers
• Liberalism
• Logic
• One of the first texts explicitly on economic
  methodology (1844)

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The Millian Methodology

• Economics is concerned with wealth
• Economics is a science
• Economics would like to be like physics but no
  experimentum crucis
• Deduction not induction (economics a priori)
• Empirically-supported assumptions
• Abstraction necessary
• Build up models
• Get to tendency statements laws if X then Y
  under E/Ceteris Paribus add details
• Verify by observation

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J.N.Keynes (father of J.M.K) (1890)

• Social science more complex than natural science
• Economics is positive not ethical
• Purpose of economics discover facts and truths
• Need deduction and induction and claims
  economics uses both (cf. Nocturnal-diurnal
  distinction)
• Trying to bridge gap in Methodenstreit and attack
  on/by Historicists
• Deduction needs to consider the conditions
  necessary for them to hold
• Hypothetico-Deductive model

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Hypothetico-Deductive model
hypothesis
Revised hypothesis
deduction
induction
proposition
Empirical testing
From Dow, S. (2002 82)
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Lionel Robbins (1932)

• Looking to delineate a specific approach to
  economics
• Economics as scarcity plus alternative uses
• Looking for generalisations
• Deduction required from Axioms
• Notes problem of hidden assumptions
• Precision essential
• Highly positivist approach

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Conclusions

• In this lecture we have examined
• The need to study methodology
• The notion of science
• Inductive and deductive logic
• The visions for and methodologies of economics of
  Mill, J.N.Keynes and Robbins
• The module explores all these themes further