Safety Study

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Safety Study

• Risk Factors Associated with Weather-Related
  General Aviation Accidents

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Aviation Safety - Regional Staff
Jeff Guzzetti, Deputy Director Regional Operations

• Kurt Anderson
• Jill Andrews
• David Bowling
• John Brannen
• Nicole Charnon
• Tealeye Cornejo
• Steve Demko
• Debra Eckrote
• Todd Fox
• Catherine Gagne
• Mitch Gallo
• Bob Gretz

• Bob Hancock
• Dennis Hogenson
• Clint Johnson
• Patrick Jones
• Alex Lemishko
• Larry Lewis
• Tom Little
• Ed Malinowski
• Steve McCreary
• Frank McGill
• Van McKenny
• Tim Monville
• George Petterson

Howard Plagens Wayne Pollack Arnold Scott Jim
Silliman Corky Smith Tim Sorensen Jim
Struhsaker Pam Sullivan Butch Wilson Leah
Yeager Al Yurman
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Staff
Study Managers Loren Groff Jana Price
Editor Sally Bennett

• Meteorology
• Jim Skeen
• Greg Salottolo
• Kevin Petty
• Don Eick
• Air Traffic Control
• Barbara Zimmermann
• Bill English
• Scott Dunham

• Communication Center
• Grant Bell
• John Taylor
• Brian Huddleston
• Grady Goodman
• Dan Maas
• Chris Mason
• Richard Chancellor
• Malcolm Brown
• Randy Rodriguez
• Russell Sottile

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Background
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General Aviation (GA)

• Operations conducted under 14 CFR Part 91
• Does not include air carrier, air taxi, or air
  tour operations
• 1,614 GA accidents in 2004 represented 94 of all
  U.S. civil aviation accidents

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General Aviation (GA) Accidents in IMC
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GA Accidents that Result in Fatality
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Previous Safety Board Studies

• 1968 Weather-involved accidents in 1966
• 1974 Fatal weather-involved accidents over a
  9-year period
• 1976 Nonfatal weather-involved accidents over
  an 11-year period
• 1989 VFR-into-IMC accidents over a 5-year
  period

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Previous Safety Board Recommendations

• Collection and dissemination of weather
  information
• Pilot training and operations
• Air traffic control

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Study Method and Procedures
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Weather-related Accidents

• Defined as Accidents that occur in weather
  conditions characterized by instrument
  meteorological conditions (IMC) or poor
  visibility.

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Case Control Methodology

• Epidemiological approach frequently used in
  public health research
• Used to identify factors that increase a pilots
  risk of being involved in a weather-related GA
  accident
• Cases weather-related GA accidents
• Controls nonaccident GA flights that occurred
  under similar circumstances

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Selection of Study Variables

• Variable selection was guided by
• Previous research findings
• Investigator expertise
• Practical constraints
• Variables included information about pilots,
  flights, and aircraft

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Accident Inclusion Criteria

• GA airplane operation and
• IMC or marginal VMC at the time and location of
  the accident
• Other accidents potentially involving lack of
  visual reference

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Study Procedure

• Data collection August 2003 April 2004
• Regional ASIs notified study managers if
  accidents met study inclusion criteria
• Staff monitored FAA daily accident reports
• Study managers identified and collected data from
  matching nonaccident flights

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Matching Nonaccident Flights

• Weather conditions
• Location (within 30 miles)
• Time (within 30 minutes)
• Rules of flight
• Number of engines
• Engine type

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Identifying Nonaccident Pilots
Flight Plan Method
IFR Flight tracking software used to obtain registration numbers of matching flights
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accident aircraft
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accident aircraft
potential control aircraft
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Identifying Nonaccident Pilots
Flight Plan Method
IFR Flight tracking software used to obtain registration numbers of matching flights
VFR or None FBOs and airports within 30 miles of accident and along route of flight were contacted to identify matching flights and pilots
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Data Gathering

• Accident flights
• Regional accident investigations
• Supplemental data form
• Nonaccident flights
• Study managers interviewed pilots
• 100 of pilots contacted participated
• Most interviews conducted within 72 hours of
  accident flight

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Additional Study Data

• Previous aviation accidents, incidents, and
  violations
• FAA knowledge and practical test records
• Forecast and actual weather conditions

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Statistical Results
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72 Study Accidents
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72 Study Accidents
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Study Groups

• 72 accidents, representative of all
  weather-related GA accidents

• 135 matching nonaccident flights

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Individual Comparisons

• Chi-square (?2) tests used to measure group
  differences
• Comparisons included
• Pilot information
• Aircraft and flight information

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Pilot-Related Variables

• Instrument rating
• Pilot certification level
• Total flight hours
• Age at accident
• Years as pilot
• Age at initial certification
• FAA knowledge and practical test performance
• Accident/incident history

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Aircraft and Flight-Related Variables

• Aircraft ownership
• Purpose of flight
• Planned flight length

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Significant Differences

• Instrument rating
• Pilot certification level
• Age at accident
• Age at initial certification
• FAA test performance
• Accident/incident history
• Aircraft ownership and purpose of flight
• Planned flight length

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Logistic Regression

• Binary logistic regression used to predict
  accident involvement
• Also provides estimates of relative risk

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Logistic Regression Model

• Instrument rating
• Pilot flight hours
• Age at first certificate
• Aircraft ownership
• Prior accident or incident

• Highest pilot certification
• Practical test pass rate
• Purpose of flight
• Planned flight length

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Logistic Regression Model
Wald Sig.
Instrument rating 9.55 .002
Pilot flight hours 1.06 .788
Age at first certificate 13.52 .004
Aircraft ownership 2.55 .279
Prior accident or incident 4.76 .029
Highest pilot certification .389 .533
Practical test pass rate 1.86 .173
Purpose of flight 2.06 .152
Planned flight length 7.87 .049
?2 57.45, p lt .001
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Logistic Regression Model
Wald Sig.
Instrument rating 9.55 .002
Pilot flight hours 1.06 .788
Age at first certificate 13.52 .004
Aircraft ownership 2.55 .279
Prior accident or incident 4.76 .029
Highest pilot certification .389 .533
Practical test pass rate 1.86 .173
Purpose of flight 2.06 .152
Planned flight length 7.87 .049
?2 57.45, p lt .001
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Analysis of Results
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Issue Areas

• Pilot training and proficiency differences
• Testing, accident, and incident history
• Weather briefing sources and methods

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Analysis of Results

• Pilot Training and Proficiency Differences

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Pilot Differences

• Pilots who learned to fly prior to age 25 at
  lowest risk

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Age at Initial Certification
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Pilot Differences

• Pilots who learned to fly prior to age 25 at
  lowest risk
• Accident risk 3.4x to 4.8x greater for other
  pilots

• Differences not likely the result of age-related
  effects

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Highest Pilot Certification Level
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Instrument Rating
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Pilot Differences

• Pilots who learned to fly prior to age 25 at
  lowest risk
• Nonaccident pilots had higher levels of
  certificate and rating

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Purpose of Flight
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Aircraft Ownership
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Pilot Differences

• Pilots who learned to fly prior to age 25 at
  lowest risk
• Nonaccident pilots had higher levels of
  certificate and rating
• Nonaccident flights were more likely to be
  conducting paid operations
• Career pilots subject to more training and
  oversight

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Initial Requirements

• All levels of pilot certificate require specific
  weather knowledge training
• All certificate levels above private require
  demonstration of instrument flight performance

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Recurrent Requirements

• Instrument flight proficiency required for
  instrument-rated pilots
• Flight review currently required for all pilots
• Every 24 months
• 1 hour flight/1 hour ground instruction
• General knowledge, rules, procedures

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Maintaining Proficiency

• Periodic training and evaluation help maintain
  and improve knowledge and skills

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Analysis of Results

• Testing, Accident and Incident History

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Test Performance and Accident Risk

• FAA knowledge and practical tests required for
  certification
• Cumulative pass-rates developed using private,
  commercial and instrument tests
• High pass rate 70
• Low pass rate lt70

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Knowledge Test Performance
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Practical Test Performance
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Test Performance and Accident Risk

• Analysis linked high test failure rates to
  accident involvement
• Currently there are no failure limits on
  knowledge or practical tests

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Air Sunshine Accident July 13, 2003

• Over 15-year period, pilot failed 9 practical
  tests
• Recommendation A-05-02
• Study whether existing system for post-failure
  remediation is adequate
• Based on study, establish failure limits as
  necessary

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FAA Knowledge Tests

• Applicants who miss all weather questions may
  still pass test
• No minimum requirements within knowledge areas

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Accident/Incident History

• Previous research has linked prior accidents to
  future accident risk
• Accident/incident history data obtained from FAA

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Pilot Accident/Incident History
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Accident/Incident History

• Accident/incident history associated with 3.1x
  greater accident risk
• Average of 1 in 330 active pilots in U.S.
  involved in accident annually
• Most pilots survive and continue to fly after the
  event
• Existing records could be used to identify pilots
  at heightened risk

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Analysis of Results

• Weather Briefing Sources and Methods

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Pilots Use of Preflight Weather

• Accident pilots
• Investigators checked documented briefings or
  interviewed surviving pilots
• Nonaccident pilots
• Study managers interviewed pilots, usually within
  72 hours of flight

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Pilots Who Obtained Preflight Weather Information
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Pilots Who Obtained Documented Preflight Weather
Information
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Weather Information Sources Used by Nonaccident
Pilots
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Weather Information Sources Used by Nonaccident
Pilots

• Majority of accident and nonaccident pilots used
  flight service (FSS)
• Nonaccident pilots reported supplementing FSS
  briefings with Internet or other services
• Graphical images
• Interactive tools

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Flight Service Stations

• February 2005 FAA announced new operator for FSS
  system
• Transition to new operation late 2005
• Opportunity to consider incorporating additional
  information in briefings

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FAA Guidance to GA Pilots on Weather Information

• Guidance in FAA advisory circular limited to FSS
  and DUATS

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The AWC Homepage Standard Briefing is intended
as a tool to help pilots better visualize weather
and weather-related hazards. It is not intended
as a substitute for a weather briefing obtained
from a Flight Service Station (1-800-WXBRIEF).
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