ASPO -USA Challenges of Transition to Sustainability

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ASPO -USAChallenges ofTransition
toSustainability

• Parallels with Apollo 13
• Roscoe G. Bartlett
• Member of Congress

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Renewable Resources Began The Industrial Age
Wind, Water Power, Wood Agriculture
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The Essence of the ProblemThere is NO Ready
Substitute!
The Gap begins Here
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Apollo 13They Almost Didnt Make it!

• Practice and cooperation essential Contingency
  plans paid off Lunar Lander served as
  lifeboat
• Had to conserve energy drastically, with some to
  spare for course changes goal not just to use a
  bit less, but to make it all the way to a safe
  landing
• Had to speed return before supplies ran out
• Had complication CO2 buildup to overcome
• Had to hit tiny Reentry Window to make it to a
  soft landing, but giving up was not an option

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Easter Island They Didnt Make it!
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Potential Alternative Solutions

• Finite Resources
• - Tar Sands
• - Oil Shale
• - Coal
• Nuclear
• - Fission, Light Water
• - Fission, Breeder
• - Fusion
• Renewable Resources
• - Solar
• - Wind
• - Ocean Energy
• - Hydropower
• - Geothermal
• - Agricultural
• Soy/Biodiesel
• Ethanol
• Methanol
• Biomass

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Current Contribution of Renewables
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POME ANALYSIS

• PROBLEM
• OBJECTIVE
• METHOD
• EVALUATION

• Long Term Growth of
  Energy Use WILL Exceed Both Finite Conventional
  Resources AND Limited (Renewable) Energy/
  Environmental Resources

• To Transition to
  Sustainable Energy Economy Before Resources are
  Depleted

• Rapidly Reduce
  Consumption to Buy Time, Save Energy Needed
  to Invest in Transition to Renewables _at_
  Sustainable Levels

• 
  Test/Optimize Options by Modeling Establish
  Measurable Indices of Success

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Filling the GapImplementation of Mitigation
Strategies
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Effects of Delay on Mitigation Efforts
20 Year Lead
10 Years
0
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Last Chance for SustainabilityReduce
Consumption, Buy Time, Save Capital Energy to
Invest in Transition
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How Can We Achieve Sustainability?

• It will Require a Crash Program that Combines
• the Daring and Clarity of Vision of the Apollo
• Program and the Urgency and Commitment of
• the Manhattan Project.
• The World will have to Mobilize and Unite
• Around this Shared Challenge to our Survival.

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We Will Need to Start Immediately on Three
Fronts, Simultaneously

• Most Urgent
• Prepare Proactively -
• Like Apollo 13 Astronauts,
• develop contingency plans
• for dealing with
• anticipatable disruptions

• Most important
• Reduce Energy
• Consumption
• Dramatically -
• Short Term
• By Conservation,
• to Buy Time, Save Money
• Energy
• Long Term
• Develop Efficient
• Leapfrog
• Technologies

• Ultimate Goal
• Achieve Sustainability-
• Short Term
• Use Saved Resources Wisely,
• Develop Alternatives with
• Highest Energy Profit Ratios
• Long Term
• Develop, Demonstrate,
• Implement Rely Upon
• Self-Powered (Non-Fossil),
• Housing, Agriculture
• Industries

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Can We Go it Alone?

• Pro by taking the lead in dramatically reducing
  consumption and improving efficiency to the
  degree that Renewable Resources can affordably
  supply what is needed, others who aspire to live
  like us will be able to!
• Con by acting on our own, without international
  cooperation, we will merely enable other
  countries to have access to more, cheaper oil,
  using it up just as fast.

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International Cooperation

• We are all in the same boat!
• Clearly, we would do better to engage the
  Nations of the world in a competition to achieve
  sustainability, instead of a consumption contest!

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Short/Medium Term Energy Saving Options


Monetary Incentives/Policies for Efficient
Technologies
Efficient Technology Retrofits
Time /Cost to implement
Monetary Incentives/ Policies for Vol. Cons.
Organized Vol. Conservation
Voluntary Conservation
Energy Savings (Avoided Oil Imports)
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Potential of Energy Efficiency Example of
Lighting
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VW 1 Litre (300 mpg) Car
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Beginning the Transition to SustainabilitySelf
Powered Buildings - Design Competition Winner
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Net Food Energy Producing Farms Solar Utility
Vehicle
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Self Powered IndustrySolar Breeder
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Self Powered VehiclesAustin Calgary Solar Car
Rayce Winners
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What Will be Needed?

• Vision
• Wisdom
• Leadership
• Scientific Understanding
• Rational Decision Making
• International Cooperation

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We Have Only Just Begun to

• Inform Colleagues to Build Consensus at All
  Levels of Government Special Order Speeches,
  Energy Conference, Distribution of Books and
  Charts
• Initiate Legislation Self-Powered
  Visitors/Tech Exhibition Center Design
  Competition - Beginning Construction Phase
  Draft Energy Farms Initiative to Promote Net Food
  Energy from Agriculture
• Some encouraging signs are evident
• You can help! Meet with your Representatives
  and share your concerns

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Potential for Renewables?
What Level can be Sustained with Non-Fossil
Resources?
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Parallels with Apollo 13 (They Made it!)

• Apollo 13
• Practice and cooperation essential Contingency
  plans paid off Lunar Lander served as
  lifeboat
• Had to conserve energy drastically, with some to
  spare for course changes goal not just to use a
  bit less, but to make it all the way to a safe
  landing
• Had to speed return before supplies ran out
• Had complication CO2 buildup to overcome
• Had to hit tiny Reentry Window to make it to a
  soft landing, but giving up was not an option

• World Today
• Will have to prepare contingency plans, be
  prepared cooperate and make do with what is on
  hand
• Will have to reduce energy demand to below
  supply, not just to make it last longer, but to
  have enough to spare for transition to
  sustainability
• Will have to use resources saved wisely, to avoid
  Jevons Paradox
• Will have to deal with CO2 buildup wise
  strategies serve both ends
• Will have to overcome nearly impossible odds to
  make it to a soft landing a sustainable energy
  economy giving up is not an option!

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http//www.bartlett.house.gov/