A Knowledge Based Approach to Community Planning

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A Knowledge Based Approach to Community Planning

• Dr. Patricia Byrnes
• Patrick Curry
• Arwiphawee Srithongrung

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What does Dilbert have to say?
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What is Planning?

• Planning consists of defining the important
  objectives an organization needs to achieve and
  determining how it plans to achieve them.

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Purposes and Types of Planning

• Strategic Visioning
• Identify and describe widely held values and use
  them as a platform setting goals.
• Strategic Planning
• To set the direction of the organization to
  improve its prospects for long-term survival.
• Operational Planning
• The tactical details of how an organization is to
  be run over a short period of time
• Project Planning
• Detailed identification and sequencing of all
  tasks to complete a project.

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Problems with Planning

• No mechanism exists for recognizing the
  difference between reality and predictions
• Goals are set arbitrarily
• Failure to focus on high-leverage goals
• Planned activities are not designed to accomplish
  goals
• There is no Shared Vision of the organizations
  future

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Essential Definitions

• Data - recorded observations of real world
  phenomena
• Information - level of knowledge needed to solve
  a problem or show patterns
• Intelligence - essential factors selected from
  information and data
• Knowledge - total concept of data, information,
  and intelligence with feedback loop

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Process for Identifying Data Needs

• Define the problem
• Decide on the geographic scope and detail
• Pinpoint and define the specific variables (data)
  you will need
• Establish the time period(s) for which you need
  the data
• Decide on the presentation methods (tables,
  charts, maps, or a combination)
• Establish cost and quality parameters for the data

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What do Economic Developers Do

• Create employment opportunities
• Increase wealth and income
• Increase the tax base
• How do they do it
• Retention and expansion of existing businesses
• Attract new business
• Support entrepreneurship
• Other

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Population losses experienced in recent decades
are likely to continue.

• Population reached a peak in 1920 (41,403) since
  1920 the county experienced losses each Census
  except 1970 to 1980
• The current population is 28,900 excluding the
  prison
• Projections show slight declines of less than 1
  over the next five years
• The rate of migration is very low, not many new
  faces in town!

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Population Pyramids
With Prison Population
Without Prison Population
Male
Female
The 65 population is large but declining
Baby Boomers Will they stay or go?
Brain Drain
School age children will slowly decline
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An increasing number of workers are crossing
county boundaries to find employment.

• Your neighbor, Macoupin County, is now a metro
  county.
• Commuting is a two way street. The number of
  workers commuting into Montgomery county
  increased at the same time the number of persons
  commuting outside the county increased.

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Montgomery County Resident Worker Profile
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The labor force is growing even though the county
population is shrinking.

• More residents work now than ever before
  primarily because of the age structure of the
  population and an increase in the proportion of
  females working.
• BUT the County still has a relatively low labor
  force participation rate when compared with the
  rest of Illinois.

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The number of full and part-time jobs has
increased in recent years but long term has
tracked national cycles.
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The labor force has many characteristics
indicating the area may not be attractive to the
employers of the future

• Educational attainment level are improving but
  are still below averages for rural Illinois and
  the State.
• In particular the proportion of college educated
  persons is low, less than one half the Illinois
  average.
• The prison population is included!
• Occupation?????

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Educational Attainment
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The structure of the economy has changed
dramatically over the last 20 years.

• Montgomery Countys economy reflects national
  trends with fewer workers producing more output
• Basic industries, those exporting products and
  importing income, are agriculture, mining, and
  communication and public utilities.
• Natural resource industries, including mining and
  agriculture, experienced dramatic declines in
  employment in the 1990s
• The service sector of the economy emerged as the
  dominant sector in the 1990s

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Montgomery County
These charts illustrate the extraordinary differen
ces in the economic base of Montgomery County and
Illinois. Note the dominance of natural resource
industries in Montgomery compared to finance and
services in Illinois.
Illinois
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The housing stock is old and housing values are
low.

• 47 of housing units were constructed prior to
  1950 compared to 40 for Rural Illinois and 32
  for the State
• Lowest median value for owner occupied housing
  (54,767) when compared with neighboring counties
  (64,366), Rural Illinois (70,504), and the
  State (130,829)

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The low income profile will influence many facets
of the county economy and institutional
infrastructure.

• All measures of personal income are below those
  for neighboring counties, rural Illinois, and
  Illinois. Poverty rates are above the State
  average.
• Diminished buying power and disposable income
  will restrict growth in retail sales.
• The willingness to invest in local institutions
  like schools, parks, health care, and
  infrastructure may also be limited.
• Local financial resources for investment in
  entrepreneurial endeavors may also be limited.

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1990-2000 MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME
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What does it all mean?

• Montgomery Countys future is as dependent on
  what happens in the surrounding counties as it is
  on what happens at home.
• In the next five years the county is likely to
  continue to experience population decline and
  erosion of buying power because of low incomes.
• Strategy development should focus on population
  growth and increasing per capita incomes.
• Although many jobs have been created in the
  County they are primarily in the service sector
  where wages are low and benefits limited.
• Reversing long term structural changes in the
  local economy and work force will take time.