Peak Oil

1
Peak Oil A Physicists View of the Slippery
Slope
Robert J. Brecha Physics Department
Electro-Optics Program University of Dayton
Abstract Peak Oil refers to an approaching
maximum and subsequent irreversible decline in
world oil production. As scientists, it comes
as no surprise that fossil-fuel resources are
finite however, it is frustrating to be
confronted with the possibility that oil
depletion might be imminent and not be sure of
how to analyze the validity of various
predictions and scenarios. I will look first at
the historical background of the peaking concept
as originally put forth by M. King Hubbert in the
1950s with respect to the US oil production, and
then examine extensions to his models to other
countries and the world. The emphasis will be on
examining publicly-available data, peer-reviewed
scientific papers, and on doing
back-of-the-envelope calculations and modeling
to try to understand this complex problem. I
will also look at other energy sources and how
they may impact various oil depletion scenarios.
Particular emphasis will be given to the concept
of Energy Returned On Energy Invested (EROEI).

• Wed. Oct. 12th