Recession

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?????????????????????????????????????????????????
?????????????????????????
??? ??.??. ???????? ??????? ??????????????????? ?
????????????????????? 31 ?????? 2552
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??????????????????????????
Recession Depression ???????? ??????? ???????????
??

• ??????????????????????????????????
• ?????????????????????????????
• - ??????????? (????????????)
• - ????????????? (?????????????????)
• ??????????????????????????????
• (???????????????)

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?????????????????????????? Q12539-Q42551 ()
????????????????????
??????????????? 2540
????? ???.
?? 2539 2540 2541 2542 2543 2544 2545 2546 2547 2548 2549 2550 2551
?????????????????????????? () 5.9 -1.4 -10.5 4.4 4.8 2.2 5.3 7.0 6.2 4.5 5.1 4.8 2.6
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?????????????????????????????????
??????????????? (GDP) ???? 2551 ????????
9,102,785 ???????
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Y C I G X - M
Y ??????????????? (GDP)
C ????????? (Private Consumption)
I ???????? (Investment)
G ??????????????????? (Government
Expenditure)
X ???????????????????????? (Exports)
M ???????????????????????? (Imports)
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(No Transcript)
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??????????????????????????

• ????????????????
• ???????????????????????????????????????????????
• ????????????????????????? Old Economy
  ??????New Economy ????????????? Next Economy
• ???????????????????????????????????????????????
  (non-tariff measurement NTM) ?????????
• ??????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ???
• ????????????????

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????????????????????????????????

• ???????
• 1. ???????????????
• 2. ??????????????
• 3. ???????????????
• 4. ??????????????????
• ?????????
• 5. ??????????????????

????????????????????????? 1. ????? 2.
?????? ?????? ???????? 3. ?????????????????????
??? 4. ??????? ?????????????
???????????? 5. ??????????????????????
????????????????
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???????????????????

• ??????????????????? (old economy) ???????????????
  (new economy or digital economy)
• ??????????????????? (protectionism)
  ????????????????? (free trade)
• ?????????? (monopoly) ??????????????????????
  (competition)
• ????????????????????????????????? (domestic or
  stand-alone) ?????????????? (globalization or
  network)

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???????????????
WTO ????????
ASEAN, APEC, ASEM, GMS ????????????
FTA, CEP, CER - ???????????????? ????????????
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(No Transcript)
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Trade and Investment Policy
Policy Direction
One World One Trading System
1st Best
WTO
China
India
USA
Extending ASEAN
Asean
AFTA/AEC
2nd Best
Japan
Korea
EU
Aus/NZ
Think ASEAN First
China
USA
3rd Best
Thailand
FTA
India
Australia
Japan
NZ
2020
Year X
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??????????????????????????????????????????????????
????
ChinaGo West
Japan Global Sourcing
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?????????????? (FDI) ??????
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?????????????????????????????????????????
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Global Economic Network
China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Korea,
Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan,
Thailand
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World Economy in 2007 (????? IMF)
Rank Country GDP (Millions USD)
World 54,311,608 100.0
1  United States 13,843,825 25.5
2  Japan 4,383,762 8.1
3  Germany 3,322,147 6.1
4  China (PRC) 3,250,827 6.0
5  United Kingdom 2,772,570 5.1
6  France 2,560,255 4.7
7  Italy 2,104,666 3.9
8  Spain 1,438,959 2.6
9  Canada 1,432,140 2.6
10  Brazil 1,313,590 2.4
Top 10 36,422,741 67.1
European Union 16,830,100 31.0
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??????????????????????????...?????????????
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????????????????????????? Loan/Deposit Ratio

?????????????????????????? (????? IMF, January
2009)
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????????????????????????????????????????
?????? ?????????? ?????? ?????????? ?????? ?????????? ?????? ?????????? ?????? ?????????? ??????? () ??????? () ??????? () ??????? () ??????? ()
????????? ?????? ?????? 2549 2550 2551 2551 (?.?.-?.?.) 2552 (?.?.-?.?.) 2549 2550 2551 2551 (2M) 2552 (2M)
1 ???????????? 19,449.60 19,415.61 20,274.50 3,220.51 2,375.06 14.99 12.62 11.40 11.71 10.68
2 ??????? 16,385.90 18,119.05 20,090.28 3,093.92 2,356.16 12.63 11.78 11.30 11.25 10.60
3 ??? 11,727.95 14,846.75 16,190.84 2,721.01 1,777.96 9.04 9.65 9.10 9.89 8.00
4 ?????????? 4,349.60 5,937.42 7,982.49 1,301.32 1,570.11 3.35 3.86 4.49 4.73 7.06
5 ?????? 7,166.74 8,694.76 10,046.27 1,604.65 1,518.90 5.52 5.65 5.65 5.83 6.83
6 ?????????????? 918.72 1,423.86 1,979.57 222.28 1,345.39 0.71 0.93 1.11 0.81 6.05
7 ???????? 8,357.22 9,619.69 10,114.67 1,376.24 959.93 6.44 6.25 5.69 5.00 4.32
8 ???????? 6,613.62 7,819.19 9,917.55 1,381.55 948.63 5.10 5.08 5.58 5.02 4.27
9 ??????????? 3,313.19 4,818.55 6,325.63 1,064.09 538.96 2.55 3.13 3.56 3.87 2.42
10 ???????? 3,074.97 3,804.11 5,017.77 838.40 505.43 2.37 2.47 2.82 3.05 2.27
?? ? 10 ?????? 81,357.5 94,499.0 107,939.6 16,824.0 13,896.5 62.72 61.42 60.69 61.16 62.51
????? ??????????????
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????????????????????????????????????????
?????? ?????????? ?????? ?????????? ?????? ?????????? ?????? ?????????? ?????? ?????????? ?????? ?????????? ??????? () ??????? () ??????? () ??????? () ??????? () ??????? ()
????????? ?????? ?????? 2549 2550 2551 2551 (?.?.-?.?.) 2552 (?.?.-?.?.) 2552 (?.?.-?.?.) 2549 2550 2550 2551 2551 (2M) 2552 (2M)
11 ???????????? 3,237.45 3,860.05 4,175.80 719.40 485.04 485.04 2.50 2.51 2.51 2.35 2.62 2.18
12 ????????????? 3,399.60 3,623.04 3,969.81 593.51 437.92 437.92 2.62 2.35 2.35 2.23 2.16 1.97
13 ?????????? 2,571.77 3,011.86 3,512.50 507.98 402.53 402.53 1.98 1.96 1.96 1.98 1.85 1.81
14 ??????? 2,326.95 2,921.59 3,198.45 501.88 395.21 395.21 1.79 1.90 1.90 1.80 1.82 1.78
15 ????????? 2,669.63 2,982.62 3,668.87 546.36 391.36 391.36 2.06 1.94 1.94 2.06 1.99 1.76
16 ??????? 1,810.09 2,662.91 3,401.43 461.15 364.16 364.16 1.40 1.73 1.73 1.91 1.68 1.64
17 ???????????????????? 1,476.28 2,209.73 2,793.31 378.42 359.83 359.83 1.14 1.44 1.44 1.57 1.38 1.62
18 ?????????????? 1,245.47 1,381.46 1,942.66 241.92 271.76 271.76 0.96 0.90 0.90 1.09 0.88 1.22
19 ???????? 1,423.72 1,676.80 1,886.97 301.76 263.93 263.93 1.10 1.09 1.09 1.06 1.10 1.19
20 ??????? 3,366.12 3,329.55 2,702.69 474.79 257.31 257.31 2.59 2.16 2.16 1.52 1.73 1.16

??? 20 ?????? ??? 20 ?????? ??? 20 ?????? 104,884.6 122,158.6 139,192.1 21,551.2 17,525.6 17,525.6 80.85 79.39 79.39 78.27 78.34 78.83
???????? ???????? ???????? 24,835.8 31,706.4 38,649.2 5,957.6 4,706.0 4,706.0 19.15 20.61 20.61 21.73 21.66 21.17
???????????? ???????????? ???????????? 129,720.43 153,864.96 177,841.28 27,508.75 22,231.58 22,231.58 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.0 100.0
????? ??????????????
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?????????????????????????? (????? ???????????
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?????????????????????????????????
????? IMF
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????????????????? 2552

• ???????????????????????????????????????????
• ???????????????? ??????????? ???? 2552
  ???????????????????? -1 ??? 4.0
  (?????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ?????? ???????????????????????????????????????????
  ????????)
• ?????????????????????? 5.0 ??? -20.0
• ?????????????????????????? -2.0 ??? 0.0