WG4 activities ???? ???? MeteoSwiss, Geneva

1
WG4activities???? ????MeteoSwiss, Geneva
2
Topics

• COSMO LEPS
• Stratified verification and guidelines for
  forecasters
• Sotchi Olympic games (at least some aspects of
  the meteorological side)
• 2010 2011 Plans

3
Present status and future plans of theCOSMO-LEPS
system Andrea Montani, D. Cesari, T.
Diomede, C. Marsigli, T. PaccagnellaARPA-SIMCHyd
roMeteoClimate Regional Service of
Emilia-Romagna, Bologna, Italy
COSMO Genreal meeting Moscow
4
COSMO-LEPS methodology
ensemble size reduction
5
Upgrades during the COSMO year

• 16 November 2009
• archive of large-scale precipitation (62.2) for
  both COSMO-LEPS members and LM-DET
• 30 November 2009
• implementation of COSMO-LEPS at 7 km (new
  domain, new perturbations (in types and values),
  lsso.true., lforest.true. )
• upgrade of COSMO to model version 4.8
• 12 July 2010
• upgrade of INT2LM to model version 1.12
• upgrade of COSMO to model version 4.12.

6
Outline

• Introduction
• migration to the 7-km system.

COSMO-LEPS 10 km (old) COSMO-LEPS 7 km (new)
7
Implementation of COSMO-LEPS at 7 km
- to improve the forecast of near-surface
parameters - to keep an advantage vs ECMWF EPS
(running at ? 25 km)
Why?

• Old system
• ?x 10 km
• ?z 40 ML
• ?t 90 s
• ngp 306x258x40 3.157.920
• fcst range 132h
• initial conditions interpolated from EPS members
• perturbations type of convection scheme
  tur_len pat_len.

New system (COSMO-LEPS_7) ?x 7 km ?z 40 ML ?t
60 s ngp 511x415x40 8.482.600 fcst range
132h initial conditions interpolated from EPS
members merged with surface and soil-layer fields
produced at DWD for COSMO-EU perturbations type
of convection scheme tur_len pat_len crsmin
rat_sea rlam_heat.
COSMO-LEPS_7 tested from May to November 2009 (no
merging yet)
8
COSMO-LEPS_10 (Old) vs COSMO-LEPS_7 (New)

• Observations SYNOP reports over either MAP
  D-PHASE region (450 reports/day) or the
  FULL-DOMAIN (1400 reports/day).
• Method nearest grid point no-weighted fcst.

• Deterministic verification of T2M ensemble mean
• Variable 2-metre temperature.
• Period from June to November 2009.
• Forecast ranges fc6h, fc12h, , fc132h.
• Scores root-mean-square error, bias.
• Probabilistic verification of 12-hour cumulated
  precipitation
• Variable12h cumulated precipitation (18-06,
  06-18 UTC).
• Period from June to November 2009.
• Forecast ranges fc 6-18h, fc 18-30h, , fc
  114-126h.
• Scores ROC area, BSS, RPSS, Outliers.
• Thresholds 1, 5, 10, 15, 25, 50 mm/12h.

9
Bias and rmse of T2M Ensemble Mean

• Consider bias and rmse for 3 months (24/5 ?
  24/8/2009) over MAPDOM ( 450 synop).
• T2m forecasts are corrected with height.

---- OLD rmse (10 km) ---- NEW rmse (7
km) OLD bias (10 km) NEW bias (7 km)

• Bias closer to zero and lower rmse for the 7-km
  suite.
• Improvement is not massive, but detectable for
  all forecast ranges, especially for day-time
  verification.
• Similar results over MAPDOM and over FULLDOM (not
  shown).
• The signal is stable (same scores also for
  6-month verification).

10
ROC area, BSS for 12-hour tp

• Consider the event 10 mm of precipitation in 12
  hours for ROC area and BSS (from Jun to Nov
  2009).

ROC area (both FULLDOM and MAPDOM)
BSS (both FULLDOM and MAPDOM)

• Better results for the 7-km suite, both for ROC
  area and BSS values.
• The impact is more evident for BSS.
• Reduction of 12-h cycle in 7-km runs.
• The improvement is detectable for all forecast
  ranges and for both MAPDOM and FULLDOM.

11
RPSS, OUTL for 12-hour tp

• Consider scores not-dependent on one single
  threshold (from Jun to Nov 2009).

of outliers (only MAPDOM)
RPSS (both FULLDOM and MAPDOM)

• Better results for the 7-km suite in terms of
  RPSS.
• The improvement is detectable for all forecast
  ranges and for both MAPDOM and FULLDOM.
• The Percentage of outliers is only slightly
  reduced in the 7-km suite (solid lines), but the
  gap is very small.
• The 7-km system has a positive impact in the
  reduction of the outliers BELOW THE MINIMUM for
  the MAPDOM (the same holds for FULLDOM, although
  not shown).

COSMO-LEPS_7 implemented operationally on 1
December 2009
12
Time-series verification of COSMO-LEPS

• SYNOP on the GTS

Main features variable 12h cumulated precip
(18-06, 06-18 UTC) period from Dec 2002 to
Jul 2010 region 43-50N, 2-18E (MAP D-PHASE
area) method nearest grid point
no-weighted fcst obs synop reports (about
470 stations/day) fcst ranges 6-18h, 18-30h, ,
102-114h, 114-126h thresholds 1, 5, 10, 15,
25, 50 mm/12h system COSMO-LEPS scores
ROC area, BSS, RPSS, Outliers,
both monthly and seasonal scores were computed
13
Time series of ROC area

• Area under the curve in the HIT rate vs FAR
  diagram the higher, the better
• Valuable forecast systems have ROC area values gt
  0.6.

• Improvement of skill detectable for all
  thresholds along the years.
• Poor performance of the system in Spring and
  Summer 2006 (both particularly dry), despite
  system upgrades.
• Best performance in 2007 during DOP (D-PHASE
  Operation Period).
• fc 30-42h ROC area above 0.8 since mid-2007 and
  good scores in 2010.
• fc 78-90h ROC area ALSO above 0.8 in the last 10
  months.

14
Main results

• Implementation of COSMO-LEPS_7km.
• The new system was tested in parallel suite for 6
  months
• higher BSS and ROC area values for the
  probabilistic prediction of 12-h precipitation
  with respect to the operational one,
• lower T2M errors of the ensemble mean,
• positive impact of the introduction of the new
  perturbations.
• COSMO-LEPS_7km was implemented on 1 December 2009.

• Time-series verification scores.
• It is difficult to disentangle improvements
  related to COSMO-LEPS upgrades from those due to
  better EPS boundaries nevertheless, positive
  trends can be identified
• increase in BSS and ROC area scores
• reduction in outliers percentages
• system upgrades of Dec 2007 brought small but
  positive impact
• the increase in horizontal resolution had a clear
  positive impact last winter (also ECMWF EPS did
  well anyway ).

15
Cloudiness problem in the alpine region
COSMO-LEPS median COSMO-7 Observations
? many members with a too small diurnal cycle in
2m temperature ? COSMO-LEPS predicts clearly more
clouds than COSMO-7 ? large spread in
deterministic case
16
Reasons

• Cloud problem in COSMO-LEPS seems to be caused by
  Kain-Fritsch together with a too moist boundary
  layer
• Has dramatic impact on 2m temperature
• Too moist boundary layer is caused by a too moist
  soil
• ? Soil merge (COSMO-EU or assimilation cycle)
  should be introduced as soon as possible

17
Future plans (1)

• COSMO-LEPS_7km
• use the soil moisture analysis fields provided by
  DWD
• save COSMO-LEPS output files on model levels (up
  to fc48h) for further downscaling
• test modifications of clustering methodologies
• always select control runs by ECMWF EPS
• consider shorter forecast ranges for clustering
  intervals (48-72h, 72-96h)
• follow the outcome of ECMWF TAC-subgroup on BC
  project ? possible modifications of the
  COSMO-LEPS suite
• COSMO-LEPS for TIGGE-LAM
• develop coding, post-processing and archiving of
  COSMO-LEPS output files in GRIB2 format (test
  Fieldextra)
• assistance to users.

18
Future plans (2)

• Support calibration and verification.

• Carry on collaboration within research project
  (e.g. SAFEWIND, IMPRINTS).

ECMWF Seminars 2011 tentative dates are 12-15
September 2011 .. No more overlap with COSMO
Meeting, please!
19
Stratified verification by weather classes and
guidelines for forecasters

• Workshop June 2010
• Selected (by myself) persons from classification,
  verification and forecasting world
• Goals
• Classification
• From classification to stratified verification
• From stratified verification to guidelines
• Forecasters feedback

20
Classification
21
COST733

• 12 domains
• data ERA40, SLP
• number of types fixed 9, 18, 27
• 22 methods, 73 classifications
• (daily, 1958-2001)

22
Classes and correlation to precipitation
23
Example of Application
Mean Temperature January
NEAAD
SWAAW
COSMO Workshop on Stratified Verification and
Guidelines Geneva 15-16 June 2010
24
Remaining 2 candidates
COST 733 catalogue
22
pre-defined types
derived types
3
6
5
5
3
subjectively def. types
Rules/ Thresholds
PCA (variants)
Leader Algorithm
Optimisation
PCACA 9,18,27
GWT 10,18,26
candidates based on entirely diffent classificatio
n methods
25
Requested properties of classification methods
with respect to verification of models

• Promote automated classification
• Stability
• Easier to apply on forecasted fields
• For verification purposes we are more interested
  in differentiating weather classes where the
  models have difficulties from those where it
  performs well. Therefore, we should evaluate the
  weather type classifications again with the
  target measure "model skill" instead of
  precipitation.

26
Stratified verification

• By season, by weather class or by type of event.
• Parameters
• Temperature, dew point, precipitation,
  cloudiness, wind speed and gusts.
• Scores
• ME, STD, POD, FAR, ETS, contingency tables, fuzzy
  scores or fields.
• Some results are available
• Possible in VERSUS

27
Presentation
28
Recommendations for guidelines

• The guidelines should be self-contained.
• They can look like a cookbook, for instance for
  the use of a parameter or for the treatment of a
  specific situation.
• A light version can be at the disposal of the
  forecasted on duty (usually under time stress)
  when a longer version can be studied offline.
• This longer version can also be used as an
  education tool for newcomers.
• The shorter version can also be implemented as a
  seasonal factsheet.
• The seasonal factsheets should include (if
  possible) the expected changes of the current
  model version with respect to version which was
  running in the past season.
• Generally speaking the guidelines should be
  short, attractive and meaningful.

29
Forecasters feedback

• Forecaster feedback should be organized either by
  a mailbox, a forum or regular discussions.
• At the end of each season a debriefing can be
  organized and a synthesis written. This can form
  a good base to the following corresponding season.

30

• Support for the 2014 Olympic Games in Sotchi

31
Primary meteorological needs for Sochi-2014

• Enhanced observational network
• Nowcasting tools
• Regional data assimilation
• High-resolution NWP models and EPS
• Meso-scale verification system
• Means of NWP output interpretation and delivery
  (new parameters and products, visualization etc)
  postprocessing
• Training

31
32
What can be done?

• Ambitious
• 0.5 1km scale model
• 2 km EPS
• Possible through international collaboration
  (projects, demonstration projects,). Preferably
  COSMO.
• Recognised methods on present models
• Local adaptation (MOS, blending, 1d-2d models,)
• Classification, analogs, climatology,
• Relocate a version of COSMO LEPS
• Forecasters guidelines
• Communication with deciding partners

33
Methods used at Torino 2006
34
Methods used at Vacouver 2010
LOW-RES
ATMOS MODEL
3D INTEGRATION
ATMOSPHERIC FORCING at FIRST ATMOS. MODEL LEVEL
(T, q, U, V)
ATMOSPHERIC FORCING at SURFACE (RADIATION
and PRECIPITATION)
HIGH-RES
External Land Surface Model
2D INTEGRATION
With horizontal resolution as high as that of
surface databases (e.g., 100 m)
Computational cost of off-line surface modeling
system is much less than an integration of the
atmospheric model
SLIDE 2
35
Applications to the 2010 Vancouver Games Two
surface systems 2D and Point
1400 x 1800 computational grid (100-m grid size)
Whistler Blackcomb Callaghan
VAN
Cypress Bowl
VANCOUVER
USA
SLIDE 3
36
Examples of Meteograms and Surfacegrams
SLIDE 12
37
2010-2011 plans

• Continue activity on stratified verification and
  guidelines
• Interest from CH, D, I, GR, PO, RU ()
• Postprocessing
• Development of MOS on COSMO (CH)
• Other postprocessing aviation,
• Fieldextra
• Working packages for Sotchi 2014
• Exchange of methods and concepts with other
  consortia (SRNWP-ET link with applications)

38

• ??? ????? ??????????? ????????? ??? ?? ????????

39
Publicity
Announcement for the http//www.smr.arpa.emr.
it/srnwp