Project Risk Management

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??????

• Project Risk Management

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??

• ?????
• ??????
• ??????(Risk Management Plan)
• ????(Identify Risk)
• ???? (Risk Analysis)
• ?????? (Risk Response Plan)
• ?????? (Risk Monitoring and Control)

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????-Risk Management

• ??(Risk)
• ??????????? (Uncertainty)
• ???????????? (Negative Impact )
• ??
• ??
• ?????
• ??????
• ????????????????minimize potential risks while
  maximizing potential opportunities.

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???? ?????????????????
???? ????????????
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??????????????
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??????Risk Management Process

• ??????(Risk Management Plan)
• ????(Identify Risk)
• ???? (Risk Analysis)
• ?????????
• ?????? (Risk Response Plan)
• ?????? (Risk Monitoring and Control)

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??????-????

• ??????- ????

?? Machine
?? Material
?? Man
?? Method
?? Measurement
???? Mother nature (Environment)
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??????-????Risk Analysis

• ????(Probability of risk)
• ????????
• ????(Impact of risk)
• ??????

??????????????
????????? ????????? ??????
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Brainstorming ?????

• ?????58 ????????,????
• ?????(facilitator)?????????
• ????????????
• ???????(???????????)
• ???????
• ????????????????
• ?????????
• ????????????

(PMBOK P247)
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?????????
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• Lateral Thinking ?????

??????,????????? ???????,???????????? ?????????
,????! ?????,???????,????,????????! ??????(??),?(?
)????????? (?)??, ??????????!
??,?????????,???????? ??????????
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Delphi Technique ????

• Keep the identity of each expert
  confidential.??????????(????????????)
• Send questionnaire to experts for ideas.
  ???????????
• Circulate the responses to other experts for
  further comments. ??????????,????????
• Repeat last step until consensus is reached.
  ?????????????

(PMBOK P248)
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????-Risk Management
?????? Risk Priority
???? ??(Probability) ?? (Impact) PI ????
AA 3 2 6 ?
BB 2 2 4 ?
CC 1 3 3 ?
DD 2 1 2 ?
3 ??? 2 ???? 1 ???
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Probability/Impact Matrix
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• Probability/Impact Risk Rating Matrix
• ??/??????????

???? P I ?? (P) ?? (P) ?? (P) ?? (P) ?? (P)
?? (I) 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9
0.8 0.08 0.24 0.40 0.56 0.72
0.6 0.06 0.18 0.30 0.42 0.54
0.4 0.04 0.12 0.20 0.28 0.36
0.2 0.02 0.06 0.10 0.14 0.18
0.1 0.01 0.03 0.05 0.07 0.09
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??????-Approaches

• ?? Risk avoidance --Avoid it
• ???????
• ??????????????????????????????????????????
• ??Risk acceptance -- Accept it
• ??????????,???????????
• ????????????,???????????
• ??Risk transference --Transfer it
• ????????? (share the risk)
• ?????????????????
• ??Risk mitigation --Mitigate it
• ?????????? (Reduce the impact)
• ????????????????????????????????

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???????lt??gt
?? ?? ???? (H/M/L) ??? ??? ????? ?? ?? ????




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????

• ?????? (Risk Monitoring)
• ??????(new risk) ????/????
• ???????
• ?????????(weekly review meeting)

• ???? Residual risks - ??????????
• ???? Secondary Risks - ???????????,??????????????

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????
???????? ???????(Risk Response
Plan) ?? --?????? --??????
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Homework 5

1. ????????????????(??????)?????????,????????????????
   (??????)?
2. ???????,?????????????????????,???????/??????(
   Probability/Impact Matrix)?
3. ??????,???????????????(???????????)??????