Future%20Directions%20in%20Globally%20Coordinated%20Climate%20Change%20Research

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Future Directions inGlobally Coordinated
Climate Change Research
Primary Sources IPCC Expert Meeting on New
Scenarios CMIP5/CMIP6/SSP Plans
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Approaches to Scenario Development
Previous (SRES)
Current (RCPs)
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Representative Concentration Pathways

• RCP8.5
• gt 8.5 W/m2 in 2100
• rising
• RCP6
• 6 W/m2 in 2100
• stabilization
• RCP4.5
• 4.5 W/m2 in 2100
• stabilization
• RCP2.6
• peak 3 W/m2 before 2100
• decline after peak

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(Now the previous plan)
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(K.E. Taylor, 2009)
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(K.E. Taylor, 2009)
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Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6
(CMIP6) Design and Organization
Veronika Eyring, Jerry Meehl, Bjorn Stevens, Ron
Stouffer, Karl Taylor (CMIP Panel) Sandrine Bony
and Cath Senior (WGCM Co-chairs) V. Balaji (WGCM
Infrastructure Panel co-chair with K. Taylor) 16
January 2015 (updates to CMIP6 Data Request
Timeline on Slide 9) Please see the CMIP Panel
website for additional information and updates
http//www.wcrp-climate.org/index.php/wgcm-cmip/ab
out-cmip Contact for questions CMIP Panel Chair
Veronika Eyring (email Veronika.Eyring_at_dlr.de) T
he final CMIP6 Design, possibly with small
modifications to the here presented figures and
wording, will be published in a GMD Special Issue
together with a description of the CMIP6-Endorsed
MIPs and the forcing datasets. This Special Issue
will open 30 April 2015.
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CMIP6 Design Scientific Focus

• The scientific backdrop for CMIP6 is the six WCRP
  Grand Challenges, and an additional theme
  encapsulating questions related to biogeochemical
  forcings and feedbacks.
• Clouds, Circulation and Climate Sensitivity
• Changes in Cryosphere
• Climate Extremes
• Regional Climate Information
• Regional Sea-level Rise
• Water Availability
• Biogeochemical forcings and feedbacks (AIMES
  WGCM)
• The specific experimental design is focused on
  three broad scientific questions
• How does the Earth System respond to forcing?
• What are the origins and consequences of
  systematic model biases?
• How can we assess future climate changes given
  climate variability, predictability and
  uncertainties in scenarios?

BUT NOTE These are under review and evolving!
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• WCRP Grand Challenges (1) Clouds, circulation
  and climate sensitivity, (2) Changes in
  cryosphere, (3) Climate extremes, (4) Regional
  climate information, (5) Regional sea-level rise,
  and (6) Water availability, plus an additional
  theme on Biogeochemical forcings and feedbacks
• DECK (entry card for CMIP)
• AMIP simulation (1979- 2014)
• Pre-industrial control simulation
• 1/yr CO2 increase
• Abrupt 4xCO2 run
• CMIP6 Historical Simulation (entry card for
  CMIP6)
• Historical simulation using CMIP6 forcings
  (1850-2014)

(DECK CMIP6 Historical Simulation to be run for
each model configuration used in the subsequent
CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs)
With proto-DECK experiments (LMIP,OMIP etc.) in
CMIP6 Tier1
Note The themes in the outer circle of the
figure might be slightly revised at the end of
the MIP endorsement process
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CMIP Continuity
Note The themes in the outer circle of the
figure might be slightly revised at the end of
the MIP endorsement process
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Criteria for DECK and CMIP6 Historical Simulation
(DECK Diagnosis, Evaluation, and
Characterization of Klima)

• (1) What are the criteria for the DECK?
• The DECK experiments are chosen
• to provide continuity across past and future
  phases of CMIP,
• to evolve as little as possible over time,
• to be well-established,
• to be part of the model development cycle.
• (2) What are the criteria for the CMIP Phase X
  Historical Simulation? The CMIP Phase X
  Historical Simulation is chosen
• to serve as a benchmark for CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs
• to use the specific forcings consistent with
  Phase X of CMIP
• to be decoupled from model development cycle if
  needed.

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ScenarioMIP Current Status

• Brian ONeill, NCAR
• Scenario MIP Co-chairs Brian ONeill, Claudia
  Tebaldi, Detlef van Vuuren
• Members Pierre Friedlingstein, George Hurtt,
  Reto Knutti, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Jason Lowe,
  Jerry Meehl, Richard Moss, Ben Sanderson
• Contributions/feedback from additional IAM
  researchersKate Calvin, Shinichiro Fujimori,
  Elmar Kriegler, Keywan Riahi
• Other MIPs esp. LUMIP, AerChemMIP, C4MIP
• IAV Community ICONICS, TGICA

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CMIP6 Design
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ScenarioMIP Objectiveshttps//www2.cgd.ucar.edu/r
esearch/mips/scenario-mip

• Define and recommend an experimental design for
  future scenarios to be run by climate models as
  part of CMIP6
• Also
• Coordinate the provision of IAM scenario
  information to climate modeling groups
• Coordinate the production of climate model
  simulations and facilitate provision of output

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ScenarioMIP Goals

• Facilitating integrated research across climate
  science, IAM and IAV communities
• Span wide forcing range and intermediate levels
• Continuity with CMIP5
• Include new forcing pathways of interest
• Anchoring targeted experiments to answer
  questions about specific forcings
• Include scenarios with forcings (land use,
  aerosols) useful to other MIPs

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The Scenario ProcessCMIP6 and Scenario MIP
RCPs
CMIP6 Scenarios
CMIP5 Patternscaling
SSPs
CMIP6
IAMscenarios
IAM, IAV studies
More IAM, IAV studies
ONeill Schweizer, 2011 based on Moss et al.
(2010).
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ScenarioMIP design Specific scenarios
CMIP5 RCP sims
Infeasible
SSP ref. scens.
Tier 1 (H/M/L)
Tier 2 (H/M/L)
SRES
Ensemble
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3.7
Long-term extensions
Overshoot
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ScenarioMIP design Specific scenarios
CMIP5 RCP sims
Infeasible
SSP ref. scens.
Tier 1 (H/M/L)
Tier 2 (H/M/L)
SRES
Ensemble
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3.7
Long-term extensions
Overshoot
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END
Future Directions inGlobally Coordinated
Climate Change Research