The UK Census Longitudinal Studies

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The UK Census Longitudinal Studies

• Chris Dibben, University of St Andrews

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The Longitudinal Studies

• The England and Wales Longitudinal Study covers
  England and Wales approximately 1 sample
  1971 onwards c. 540,000
• http//celsius.census.ac.uk
• The Scottish Longitudinal Study covers Scotland
  5.3 sample 1991 onwards c. 280,000
• http//lscs.ac.uk
• The Northern Ireland Longitudinal Study covers
  Northern Ireland 28 sample 2001 onwards -
  c.500,000)
• http//www.qub.ac.uk/research-centres/NILSResearch
  SupportUnit/
• also the Northern Ireland Mortality Study 100
  sample, links deaths since 2001 to 2001 Census
  data

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England and Wales Longitudinal Study Structure
1971 Original sample 530,000 selected from
1971 Census
1981 536,000 sample members found at 1981 Census
1991 543,000 sample members found at 1991 Census
2001 540,000 sample members found at 2001 Census
Plus members of household
Plus members of household
Plus members of household
Plus members of household
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Core data in all the LSs
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Can add in hospital admissions
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• Types of study design using the Census
  Longitudinal Studies
• Cross-sectional at each census (1971,1981,1991,
  2001)
• Longitudinal investigating same people at 2
  Census points
• Longitudinal fertility, cancer incidence and
  mortality by Census characteristics before and
  after the event
• Cross-sequential comparing change in two
  cohorts (e.g. class mobility 1971 to 1991 with
  class mobility 1981 to 2001)
• Inter-generational (parental characteristics of
  sample members by their adult characteristics in
  a later Census)

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How to use the LSs conditions imposed by the
need for confidentiality

• Data are held in secure setting and cant be
  downloaded
• Projects are scrutinised by a Board before
  approval
• Safe Setting Access to LS
• ONS - London, Hampshire or South Wales
• NRS Edinburgh
• NISRA - Belfast
• - or send code (eg in STATA or SPSS) which will
  be run for them by CeLSIUS support officers
• Individual-level data cannot leave the secure
  setting instead, tables, models or aggregated
  datasets are released
• Outputs are scrutinised for possible disclosive
  elements (can limit detail of ethnicity,
  small-area geography and occupation)
• Presentations, articles, theses etc. must be
  scrutinised again before being made public and
  the standards are more rigorous.

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• Work, permanent sickness and mortality risk
• a prospective cohort study of England and Wales,
  1971-2006
• Akinwale B, Lynch K, Wiggins R, Harding S,
  Bartley M Blane D
• Published in Journal of Epidemiology Community
  Health, 2010, 10.1136/jech.2009.099325
• The research question
• labour market participation by men has fallen in
  recent decades.
• much of this decline is accounted for by
  increases in permanent sickness.
• there is speculation that some of the permanently
  sick have less severe conditions than previously.

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• The study
• used data from the ONS Longitudinal Study
• samples were selected from each census 1971,
  1981, 1991, 2001
• of men aged 55-69 and women aged 50-64
• either employed, unemployed or economically
  inactive at census
• samples were followed up for five years to
  identify deaths
• analysis age-specific death rates, Standardised
  Mortality Ratios, odds of reporting limiting
  long-term illness
• Results
• the pattern of relative mortality risk remained
  remarkably stable during 1971-2001
• for both men and women of working ages, it was
  persistently lowest among those in work and
  highest among the permanently sick

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Table 4 Standardised Mortality Ratios for men
aged 55-64
Labour market position 1971 1981 1991 2001
In work 100 100 100 100
Unemployed 115 110 133 151
Retired 175 149 131 135
Permanently sick 298 299 290 318
Other inactive 230 212 153 174
Source ONS Longitudinal Study, authors
analysis. Deaths 1-5 years after census.
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Area Factors Suicide

• Background
• Suicide rates vary between areas individual
  characteristics (composition)
• or area characteristics (context)?
• Aim
• To determine if area factors are independently
  related to suicide
• risk after adjustment for individual and family
  characteristics.
• Method
• 5-year record linkage study using NIMS based on
  c.1.1 million individuals
• aged 16-74 years (and not living in communal
  establishments)
• Results
• suicide risks lowest for women for those
  married/cohabiting
• higher relative risks recorded in more deprived
  socially fragmented areas disappeared after
  adjustment for individual household disadvantage

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Suicide (Daily Mirror)
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Long-term health conditions
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2011 Census Other key changes

• General Health - Expanded from a 3 point scale in
  2001 to a 5 point scale in 2011
• Limiting long term illness - expanded

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2011 Census Other key changes

• Marital status question expanded to allow people
  to indicate their civil partnership status
  following the Civil Partnership Act 2004

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School Education data 3 datasets.

• - School Census data
• - SQA attainment data
• - Attendance/ absence exclusions data
  available

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1947 Scottish Mental Survey
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Early life environment
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