Outline:

1
(No Transcript)
2
Outline ENSO theory ENSO monitoring ENSO impact
on eastern/southern Africa The dynamics of the
ENSO teleconnection
3
ENSO theory - a coupled ocean/atmosphere system
Bjerknes (1969), reviewed in Neelin et al., ENSO
theory, in J. Geophys. Res. (1998) http//www.cp
c.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/impacts/wa
rm_impacts.shtml
4
(No Transcript)
5
http//iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproom/.ENSO
6
ENSO impact
http//www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitori
ng/impacts/warm_impacts.shtml
7
ENSO impact
Ropelewski and Halpert, 1987. Global and
regional precipitation patterns associated with
the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, Mon Wea Rev,
115, 1606-1626
8
(No Transcript)
9
Goddard, L and NE Graham, 1999. Importance of
the Indian Ocean for simulating rainfall
anomalies over eastern and southern Africa, J
Geophys Res, 104, 19099-19116
10
(No Transcript)
11
Chiang and Sobel, J Climate 2002 (Yulaeva and
Wallace , J Climate 1994)
12
(No Transcript)
13
Year (0) of a warm ENSO Year (1) of a warm
ENSO
Indeje, M et al., 2000. ENSO signals in East
African rainfall seasons. Int. J. Climatology,
20, 19-46
14
January-March 1992 v. January-March 1998
Reason, CJC and D Jagadheesha, 2005. A model
investigation of recent ENSO impacts over
southern Africa. Meteorol. Atmos. Phys., 89,
181-205
15
Conclusions we have sensible theories for how
the coupled ocean-atmosphere ENSO system works,
and for its impact on the global climate these
theories can guide our expectations related to
prediction of ENSO and its general impacts, BUT
knowledge of the regional climate system, and
understanding of its interaction with global
climate anomalies is critical to predict regional
impacts.