Climate Change: Adapting for the long term

1
Climate Change Adapting for the long term
CFCAS
presentation to Senate Ctte. 18/2/03

• Professor G.A. McBean, Ph.D., FRSC
• Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction
• The University of Western Ontario
• and
• Chair, Board of Trustees
• Canadian Foundation for Climate and Atmospheric
  Sciences

2
4
3

• The Climate Change
• Issue

1
5
2
3
Dr. R. Watson Chair of IPCCspeaking to COP 6

• The overwhelming majority of scientific experts,
  whilst recognizing that scientific uncertainties
  exist, nonetheless believe that human-induced
  climate change is inevitable. the frequency
  and magnitude of these type of events heat
  waves, floods, droughts, fires and extreme
  weather events leading to significant economic
  losses and loss of life, are predicted to
  increase in a warmer world

4
2100
Risk from Extreme events
NOW
Adaptation to reduce vulnerability and gain
opportunities
5
IPCC Assessment
90-99
Intense Precipitation
Drought
66-90
We need to refine the probabilities, risks and
understand the vulnerability.
6
Global Impacts due to Extreme Events
50B (US)
44
72 events
13
16
29
7
4
3
Adaptation to reduce impacts and gain benefits
What should be the balance of expenditure
between adaptation and mitigation?
1
5
2
8
The Delhi (CoP8) Ministerial DeclarationonClimat
e Change and Sustainable Development

• promote sustainable development.
• (e) Adaptation to the adverse effects of climate
  change is of high priority for all countries.
  Developing countries are particularly vulnerable,
  especially the least developed countries and
  small island developing States. Adaptation
  requires urgent attention and action on the part
  of all countries.

9
Knowledge of the Climate System
Adaptation strategies depend on better
knowledge of
We know more than enough to justify action.
10
The Canadian Foundation for Climate and
Atmospheric Sciences

• Established in 2000
• Budget 2000 awarded one-time 60 million grant to
  be disbursed over six years.
• to foster scientific research on
• the climate system, climate change,
• extreme weather,
• air quality and
• marine environmental prediction.
• Making a Difference Through Science

11
Weather and climate are a continuum
100 years
Climate Change
Climate-models/analysis
El Nino
1 year
Drought
Canadian Weather Research Program
1 month
Greenhouse gases
Watershed Levels
10 days
Winter Storms
1 day
Hail-lightning
Flash flood
1 hour
Tornado
1 minute
Global
Continental
Regional
City
Local
12

• Strategies for Adaptation to climate change must
  be based on
• understanding the present relationships and
  vulnerabilities
• projecting ahead the changing climate and weather
• working with communities to reduce
  vulnerabilities
• We need to have a
• strong observational base
• science of climate/weather prediction
  university and governments

13
Basic observing Networks
Need to know climate of atmosphere above
ALERT
closed
EUREKA
MOULD BAY
RESOLUTE BAY
INUVIK
HALL BEACH
CAMBRIDGE BAY
NORMAN WELLS
IQALUIT
WHITEHORSE
CORAL HARBOUR
BAKER LAKE
KUUJJUAQ
FORT NELSON
FORT SMITH
INUKJUAK
GOOSE BAY
CHURCHILL
ST JOHN'S
LA GRANDE IV
PRINCE GEORGE
SEPT-ILES
PORT AUX BASQUES
EDMONTON STONY PLAIN
PORT HARDY
THE PAS
MOOSONEE
SASKATOON
PICKLE LAKE
KELOWNA
SABLE ISLAND
YARMOUTH
MANIWAKI
96-02-12
Environment Canada/Atmospheric Environment/Nationa
l Weather Services Directorate
14
The capacity of the MeteorologicalServices has
been diminished over the past decade- stations
closed- staff reductions- research curtailed
Budgets EC red MSC - blue
CFCAS has committed about two-thirds of its
funds It now has under review proposals for 8
research network and 45 grants All funds will be
expended by 2007. We need investments for the
long-term.
15
CLIMATE CHANGE STRATEGY

• Adaptation Strategy
• Invest to directly help Canadians
• Protecting Canadians from harm and information to
  maximize economic efficiency
• Based on better predictions of change from
  minutes-years-decades

• Emissions reduction
• strategy
• long-term
• Innovation agenda

Support is needed to both government agencies and
to universities to build our science base.
To inform and warn Canadians about the future so
they can make better decisions.
16
The End
CFCAS