1
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• ?????????
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• ?6???????
• 2012/9/24 ??????????

2
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1.????????????? ? ???????????????????????? 2.
??????????????? ? ?????????????????????????
????????????????????????? ?????????????
3
?????????????????
????????????? ??(1967) ???????????????? Serrez
e et. al (2001)??????????? ?? ???????????????
??(1977)8?????????????? Sato and
Takahashi(2001)??????(???)?????????? ????(2008
) 1970???1990?????????? ??
??? ???????????????????? ??????????????????
4
??????
1.?????????????????????? 2.20??????????????????
? ???????????
5
?????????
TFP????
??????(Hewson1998???) ??19482011??6???? NCEP/
NCAR???2.5????? 850hPa??T?R??? ?
????t(?????e)??? ? TFP(t)??????????? ?
?????????? TFP(t)?dt(?t)?????
TFP(t)?dt????????? ?????? ?????
t
t
dt
TFP(t)
TFP(t)-??t(?t/?t)
Web???(by ZAMG) http//rammb.cira.colostate.edu/wm
ovl/vrl/tutorials/ satmanu-eumetsat/satmanu/basic/
parameters/tfp.htm ????
TFP(t)?dt????????????? ?????????????????
6
TFP(t)?dt????????

• 1.??????????????
• ????????????????????
• ? ???????????????
• 1979-2007?(29??)?411??
• 1?2????????????????
• (??1560????110160?????
• 1?10????????)
• 2.????????
• TFP(t)?dt??????
• ?????

????????????? ???4?11?
?????????
7
?????????
140E???????????-????()
? ???????0.414
?e ???????0.440
?????
?????
???????
??e ???????0.453
8
?????????(???)
9
?????????(???)
10
?????????(???)
11
??????
1.?????????????????????? 2.20???????????????????
???????????
12
??????????????
19612011??68?(?3149??)? ??????????????(19??5
1?969??)
? ???????????? ??????????3?? ??????
10?????
??????????? ? ????????????? ?????????Ward??
???? ? 10?????? ? ???3????????? ??????
13
??????????????
? ????(???)? ??????????? ???????
????????
?????????? (1961-2011??6?8???)
??? ? ??????????? ??? ? ???????????
-0.3??????? 0.3??????????
14
??????????????
????????
????
-0.3??????? 0.3??????????
??? ? ??????????? ??? ? ???????????
15
??????????????
???????
???
-0.3??????? 0.3??????????
??? ? ??????????? ??? ? ???????????
16
????????????
?????????? (1961-2011??6?8???)
17
????/????????
?????(48??) ????lt-1.5? ?? ????lt?1.5?
?????(39??) ???? gt1.5? ?? ????gt 1.5?
????????????????
?????????????????
18
????/??????????
????(25??) ????lt-0.5? ?? ???? gt0.5?
????(22??) ???? gt0.5? ?? ????lt-0.5?
?????????????
???????????????
19
??????????????????????????
??????(23??) ????lt-0.5? ?? ???? gt0?
??????(20??) ????gt0? ?? ????lt-0.5?
???????????????
20
???????????????????????
???????(35??) ???lt-0.5? ?? ?????? gt0?
??????(31??) ??????lt-0.5? ?? ?? gt0?
145E????????????
145E????????????
21
???????????????????????
??????(60??) ????????? lt-1.5?
145E?????????????
22
????????????150E????????????
? 7???????
? ?
?
???2.5??
??????? ???????????????
23
?????????????????(10010?)
? ????????? ???????????????(??)?
??????????????????? ?????????
??(??10?)
??(??10?)
??
??
24
???

• 1.???????????????????????
• ???????????
• 2.?????????????????
• ????????????????????
• ? ??(??)??????(?)??????
• ?????????
• ? ??????????????????
• ??????????????
• 20?????????????????????
• ? 1990???????150???35????
• ????????????
• ? 1960???????140???????????
• ???????(??????)?????