Title: Disclaimer
1Disclaimer
The material contained in this PPT is a raw
model output and research product. This is meant
for scientific use. For any clarification/interpre
tation, please contact India Meteorological
Department.
2INITIAL CONDITION 14th August 2015
Working group on Extended Range Prediction
Ministry of Earth Sciences, Govt. of India
3- This MME forecast has been prepared using the CFS
(T126 T382) and GFSbc (T126 T382) (each 11
members) .
Real-time forecast based on 14th August 2015
initial condition
4Daily evolution of rainfall and wind at 850hPa
(by MME)
5Daily evolution of vorticity at 850hPa and mean
sea level pressure (by MME)
6Daily evolution of minimum and maximum
temperature (by MME)
7Daily evolution of minimum and maximum
temperature Anomaly (by MME)
8Predicted pentad wise temperature anomaly (by MME)
9Daily evolution of divergence and winds at 200hPa
and 500mb Geopotential Height (by MME)
10Predicted pentad wise rainfall (by MME)
11MISO monitoring and forecast for next 25 days
12Area averaged rainfall over homogeneous regions
predicted by MME
13Area averaged rainfall over MZI region predicted
by MME
14Area averaged rainfall over CEI region predicted
by MME
15Area averaged rainfall over NEI region predicted
by MME
16Area averaged rainfall over NWI region predicted
by MME
17Area averaged rainfall over SPI region predicted
by MME
18Key points from the present forecast
- The next 20 days forecast indicates that
- Rainfall, MSLP and other charts indicate that the
large scale weak monsoon condition will continue
for next 10-15 days. - It was forecasted earlier that a fresh convective
activity will move from Indian ocean to southern
tip of peninsula around 20th Aug. But further
propagation of convection towards north will be
hampered due to the development of two cyclonic
systems over central Pacific. - It is expected that after the dissipation of
these two systems, convection over Bay of Bengal
may increase by the end of August. - Overall rainfall activity will be below normal in
the month of August.
19MISO forecast and its verification
20MISO forecast and its verification
21MISO forecast and its verification
22Thanks..