LEAP analysis of mitigation options for greenhouse gas emissions.

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LEAP analysis of mitigation options for
greenhouse gas emissions.

• Palmerston North case study

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Setting the scene

• TLAs need to develop strategies to mitigate
  greenhouse gas emissions
• How to choose between various options?
• What targets to aim for?

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LEAP what is it

• Long Range Energy Alternative Planning system
• Computer Modelling tool
• Used to model energy use and greenhouse gas
  emissions
• Energy demandActivity level Energy intensity

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Method

• Model current energy use
• Calculate emissions for fuels and technologies
• Project activity levels and energy intensity into
  the future e.g. 2030
• Create scenarios to reflect possible policy
  changes

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Current energy use in PN
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2002 Household energy split
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Technology/ Fuels
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Possible questions that could be investigated?

• Effects of installing solar hot water heaters
• Location of future development
• Effect of changing use of public transport
• Effects of improving house design in relation to
  passive solar heating
• Effects of insulating older houses.

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Determining targets

• What to aim for? Assume stabilise _at_ 450ppm by
  2050
• Needs to be equitable between countries
• Proposing to investigate the impacts if emissions
  allocated on an area basis.

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Population vs area
t/hd/yr t/km2/yr
New Zealand 17.6 277.6
Australia 24.9 68.8
Great Britain 11.0 2739.0
USA 23.3 734.9
Sweden 7.6 155.3
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Why use area as basis?

• Concentration of greenhouse gases are by volume
• Volume to accommodate emissions is directly
  related to land area.
• Starts to account for the issue of population

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Consider implications for other TLA

• Palmerston North is a relatively small
  geographical area
• What are implications for a TLA in rural area.
• Different emissions profile

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Summary

• TLAs need to start developing strategies to
  mitigate greenhouse gas emissions
• First understand current emissions
• Establish targets for future
• Evaluate proposed strategies using LEAP