Public Opinion, Political Participation,

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Public Opinion,Political Participation,
Voting CH. 8
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• The Population The relevant group of people for
  the question
• Consensus occurs when a substantial percentage
  of a sample agree on an issue
• Polarization occurs when a large portion of
  opposing sides feels intensely about an issue

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Public Opinion

• Taking the pulse of the people
• Intensity
• Latency
• Salience

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Public Opinion

• Definition distribution of individual
  preferences or evaluations of a given issue,
  candidate or institution.
• Distribution-the proportion of the population
  that holds one opinion or viewpoint as compared
  to those with opposing opinions or those with no
  opinion at all

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Taking the Pulse of the People

• Keys
• 1. proper sampling-a random choice of an
  appropriate set of people
• 2. art of asking questions-wording of question,
  questions are pretested, questioner trainedno
  voice intonations
• 3. Thorough analysis and reporting of results,
  accuracy validated sample size, margin of error

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• Intensity-how strongly people feel about a
  candidate, issue or policy
• Latency-political opinions that exist merely as
  potential(havent crystallized)more concerned
  with personal issues than national issues
• Salience-extent to which people feel issues are
  relevant to them

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Agents of Political Socialization

• Family
• Schools
• Mass Media
• Religion
• Ethnic and racial attitudes

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How we acquire political opinions

• Political Socialization-process by which we
  develop our political attitudes, values and
  beliefs
• Nationalisma consciousness of the nation-state
  and of belonging to that entity is a common
  element of political socialization
• Importance of group affiliation vs. individual

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Sources of Political Socialization

• Family (parent-child similarity) disagreements
  between youths parents and friends
• Schools higher education and political
  correctness

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Sources continued

• Mass Media
• wide exposure to newspapers, Internet, movies,
  TV 2000 directed attention to problems of voting
  systems, Electoral College,
• Why is media influential?
• media provides link between individuals and
  values/behavior of others

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Other Influences

• Religious/Racial Influences
• 1. Religious, racial and ethnic attitudes
• 2. Dangerous to stereotype people

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Stability and Change Over Time

• We are slow to change, cling to things that
  matter to us, reluctant to change loyalties.
• Opinions that are part of our basic values remain
  stable over time, whereas views on issues that
  are less central to our values can show
  substantial change over time
• Public Opinion changes once a public learns about
  an issue

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Public Opinion and Public Policy

• Public opinion change can lead to policy
  change(Vietnam, Gulf War)
• Elected officials seek to follow public policy
  opinion
• Candidates use polls to determine where and how
  to campaign
• Political polls are no substitute for elections

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Awareness and Interest

• Varying levels of interest in politics
• Attentive public-25 of American publictend to
  be better educated.
• Nonvoters-35 political do-nothings
• Part-time citizens
• Only 60 of Americans can name one U.S. Senator

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Participation from opinion to action

• Influence government in what ways?
• 1 way--Voting, joining interest groups, writing
  letters, calls, etc.
• Totalitarian society-participation is very
  limited
• Even in a democracy, people may fight rather than
  accept election(U.S. Civil War)
• Routine participation-National Anthem, Pledge of
  Allegiance, jury duty

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Politics is a private matter in America

• Less than one person in four attempts to
  influence another persons vote
• Only on in 20 make a contribution to a candidate
  only one in six designates taxes to presidential
  fund

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Registration

• Voter registration discourages voting
• Australian ballot secret response to multiple
  voting
• Registration laws vary by state
• Only North Dakota does not require registration
• Most important provision of voter registration is
  the closing date-No state can stop registration
  more than 30 days before an election

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Motor Voter

• 1. Allows people to register when applying for a
  renewal of drivers license
• 2. States can also use schools/libraries/city/coun
  ty offices as registration sites
• 3. states can permit mail registration
• 4. Most registered claim to be independent which
  benefits neither party
• 5. Does not appear to have increased turnout

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Turnout

• Turnout is highest in presidential election
• Turnout is higher in general elections than in
  primary elections and higher in primary elections
  than in special elections

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Turnout continued

• Turnout is higher in presidential general
  elections than in midterm general elections and
  higher presidential primary elections than in
  midterm primary elections
• Turnout is higher in elections in which
  candidates for federal office are on the ballot
  than in state elections in years when there are
  no federal contests

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Turnout continued

• Local or municipal elections have lower turnout
  than state elections and municipal primaries have
  even lower rates of participation
• In 1960, turnout peaked at almost 65 percent of
  persons over 21 years of age, has since declined
  to 36 in 1998 and 51 in 2000

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Why is turnout so low?

• 1. Voter registration appears to be the major
  block to voting
• 2. Too young election did not seem important
  disinterested in candidates inconvenient
• 3. American parties are too weak-nonvoter had no
  contact with party

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Who Votes?

• 1. Education level-as education level increases,
  so does voting
• 2. Race and ethnic background-blacks vote at
  lower rates than whites, women voters exceed that
  of men
• 3. Income and age-those with higher family
  income, higher-status careers, oldermore likely
  to vote
• 18-24 year olds least likely to vote/also over 70

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How serious is nonvoting?

• If people are too lazy to vote, maybe they
  shouldnt
• Some say a serious issue-class bias
• The poor are not represented
• But nonvoters are not more egalitarian or in
  favor of government ownership
• Lower voter turnout could be seen as approval

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Nonvoting continued

• If large nonvoting population were to turnout to
  vote it could shift balance of power
• Need for electoral reform after 2000 election,
  ensure fair voting(machines) accuracy, concerns
  about the media projecting winners before the
  polls close.

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Nonvoters

• Millions of Americans do not vote when elections
  are held.
• Only 50.1 percent of eligible voters cast ballots
  in the 2000 presidential election, and only 46.3
  percent of the electorate voted for the members
  of the House of Representatives.
• Voter turnout significantly decreases in off-year
  elections, congressional elections held in years
  when there is no presidential election.

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Chapter 6, Section 4
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Why People Do Not Vote

• Some people cannot vote for various reasons, such
  as physical or mental illness, unexpected travel,
  and resident alien citizenship status.
• However, most nonvoters do not vote because
• voting is in some way inconvenient,
• they do not believe that their vote will make a
  difference, or
• they distrust politics and political candidates.

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Chapter 6, Section 4
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Voters and Voting Behavior

• Voting is studied more than any other form of
  political participation in the United States. We
  learn about voting behavior from
• The results of electionsinformation can be
  gleaned by studying the results of confidential
  voting compared to the population make-up of a
  particular sector
• The field of survey researchdata can be gathered
  by conducting polls across specific cross
  sections of the population, as the Gallup
  Organization does
• Studies of political socializationstudying
  political socialization, the process by which
  people gain their political attitudes and
  opinions, can also be useful in predicting voting
  behavior

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Chapter 6, Section 4
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Sociological Factors
Voter preferences cant be predicted by just one
sociological factor. Voter opinion is a
combination of all of these factors and more.
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Chapter 6, Section 4
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Psychological Factors
Voters perceptions of their party, the
candidates, and the issues significantly affects
their voting.

• Candidates and Issues
• Candidates and issues are two short-term factors
  that can influence even the most loyal Democrat
  or Republican. People may vote out of their
  chosen party if they dislike a candidate or the
  partys stand on a particular issue.

• Party Identification
• The loyalty of people to a particular political
  party is the single most significant and lasting
  predictor of how a person will vote.

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Chapter 6, Section 4
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Voting Choices

• Voting on the Basis of Party
• Voting on the Basis of Candidates
• Voting on the Basis of Issues

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Voting Based on Party

• Party Identification-affiliation with a party,
  longstanding loyalty
• Even increase in independents, 2/3 of indep. Are
  in fact partisan in their behavior, reinforcing
  the importance of partisanship
• Party identification more stable than attitudes
  about issues or political ideology

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Voting on the basis of candidates

• American electoral politics is in a
  candidate-centered era. Likeable, who looks
  good, who is more personable
• Candidate appeal often on character (Reagan,
  Eisenhower)
• Increasingly, campaigns focus on negative
  elements, attacks on stands on abortion,
  fundraising
• Attacked for dishonesty, trustworthiness

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Voting on basis of issues

• Important but not as central as partisanship and
  candidate appeal
• Why?
• Candidates often conceal real position on issues
• Voting on issues basis presumes a level of
  interest in issues that only a few voters have

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• Retrospective voting more likely than prospective
  voting
• Prospective voting-voting based on what a
  candidate promises if elected
• Retrospective voting- voting based on what a
  candidates past performance or candidates
  partys record of performance

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Voting on Issues continued...

• State of economy often crucial to candidates
  election
• Usually, voters vote against party in power if
  personal finances have worsened
• Democrats focused on issues in 1998 and picked up
  5 seats in House GOP use of impeachment issue
  did not resonate with voters

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The Voting Rights Act of 1965
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Chapter 6, Section 3
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African Americans at the Polls
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Chapter 6, Section 3
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Nonvoters

• Millions of Americans do not vote when elections
  are held.
• Only 50.1 percent of eligible voters cast ballots
  in the 2000 presidential election, and only 46.3
  percent of the electorate voted for the members
  of the House of Representatives.
• Voter turnout significantly decreases in off-year
  elections, congressional elections held in years
  when there is no presidential election.

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Chapter 6, Section 4
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Why People Do Not Vote

• Some people cannot vote for various reasons, such
  as physical or mental illness, unexpected travel,
  and resident alien citizenship status.
• However, most nonvoters do not vote because
• voting is in some way inconvenient,
• they do not believe that their vote will make a
  difference, or
• they distrust politics and political candidates.

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Chapter 6, Section 4
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Voters and Voting Behavior

• Voting is studied more than any other form of
  political participation in the United States. We
  learn about voting behavior from
• The results of electionsinformation can be
  gleaned by studying the results of confidential
  voting compared to the population make-up of a
  particular sector
• The field of survey researchdata can be gathered
  by conducting polls across specific cross
  sections of the population, as the Gallup
  Organization does
• Studies of political socializationstudying
  political socialization, the process by which
  people gain their political attitudes and
  opinions, can also be useful in predicting voting
  behavior

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Chapter 6, Section 4
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The History of Voting Rights

• The Framers of the Constitution purposely left
  the power to set suffrage qualifications to each
  State.
• Suffrage means the right to vote. Franchise is
  another term with the same meaning.
• The electorate is all of the people entitled to
  vote in a given election.
• Initially, the right to vote in America was
  limited to white male property owners.
• Today, the size of the American electorate is
  greater than 200 million people. Nearly all
  citizens at least 18 years of age can qualify to
  vote.

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Chapter 6, Section 1
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Extending Suffrage
The expansion of the electorate to its present
size happened in five fairly distinct stages

• 1. During the early 1800s, religious, property,
  and tax payment qualifications were gradually
  eliminated.
• 2. The 15th Amendment (1870) was intended to end
  race-based voting requirements.
• 3. In 1920, the 19th Amendment prohibited the
  denial of the right to vote because of sex.
• 4. The 1960s

The Voting Rights Act of 1965 guaranteed the
right to vote for minorities. The 23rd Amendment
(1961) granted citizens of the District of
Columbia the right to vote for presidential
electors. The 24th Amendment (1964) eliminated
the poll tax.

• 5. The 26th Amendment (1971) lowered the voting
  age to 18.

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Chapter 6, Section 1
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2000 Election
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Political Participation

• Do not take it lightly - it is a great
  responsibility