Disclaimer

1
Disclaimer
The material contained in this PPT is a raw
model output and research product. This is meant
for scientific use. For any clarification/interpre
tation, please contact India Meteorological
Department.
2
INITIAL CONDITION 9th August 2015
Working group on Extended Range Prediction
Ministry of Earth Sciences, Govt. of India
3

• This MME forecast has been prepared using the CFS
  (T126 T382) and GFSbc (T126 T382) (each 11
  members) .

Real-time forecast based on 9th August 2015
initial condition
4
Daily evolution of rainfall and wind at 850hPa
(by MME)
5
Daily evolution of vorticity at 850hPa and mean
sea level pressure (by MME)
6
Daily evolution of minimum and maximum
temperature (by MME)
7
Daily evolution of minimum and maximum
temperature Anomaly (by MME)
8
Predicted pentad wise temperature anomaly (by MME)
9
Daily evolution of divergence and winds at 200hPa
and 500mb Geopotential Height (by MME)
10
Predicted pentad wise rainfall (by MME)
11
MISO monitoring and forecast for next 25 days
12
Area averaged rainfall over homogeneous regions
predicted by MME
13
Area averaged rainfall over MZI region predicted
by MME
14
Area averaged rainfall over CEI region predicted
by MME
15
Area averaged rainfall over NEI region predicted
by MME
16
Area averaged rainfall over NWI region predicted
by MME
17
Area averaged rainfall over SPI region predicted
by MME
18
Key points from the present forecast

• The next 20 days forecast indicates that
• Rainfall, MSLP and other charts indicate that the
  large scale weak monsoon condition will continue
  for next 10 days. However a synoptic scale
  disturbance is expected and may give good
  rainfall over central India around 16-18th
  August.
• Large scale MISO indicates that a fresh spell of
  good rainfall will propagate from Indian ocean to
  southern peninsula around 20th and central India
  around 25th August.

19
MISO forecast and its verification
20
MISO forecast and its verification
21
Thanks..