Neo-conservatism and US Foreign Policy in Iraq

1
Neo-conservatism and US Foreign Policy in Iraq

• March 6, 2014

2
Overview

• Neoconservatism as a domestic source of American
  foreign policy
• The four tenets of neoconservative foreign policy
• Neoconservatives and the slaying of the Iraqi
  monster
• Neoconservatism in the context of other factors

3
Why the neoconservative case?

• Example of the impact of domestic factors on
  foreign policy
• Examine how ideas impact foreign policy and what
  conditions help give them more influence

4
Neoconservatism as a domestic source of American
foreign policy

• Neoconservatives as one of the more influential
  internal forces operating within the United
  States.
• First generation in late 70s, especially strong
  on under Reagan
• With end of Cold War lose influence - lack of
  external other
• Reaction against realism (pragmatic realpolitik)
• Not clear enough about its moral purpose, not
  doing enough to maintain US military dominance

5

• However, still developing ideas that lay the
  intellectual foundations for future policy
  shifts, that would be triggered by September 11
  argued for a moral regeneration of America.

6
Neo-Reaganite Foreign Policy

• Kristol Kagan 1996
• US role as benevolent global hegemony
• Military supremacy moral confidence
• To achieve this three areas key
• 1) Consistent strong defence budget
• Goal to reinforce power disparity with would be
  challengers

7

• 2 ) Educate Americans in their role supporting US
  forces in carrying hegemonic responsibilities
• 3) Clear moral purpose behind US foreign policy
• Promoter of democracy, free markets individual
  liberty

8
The four tenets of neoconservative foreign policy

• 1. Moral clarity about the forces of good and
  evil in the international arena
• 2. Benevolent US hegemony will be good for all
• 3. Willingness to use military force to pursue
  goals
• 4. Distrust in international law and institutions

9
Bush Axis of Evil speech

• States like these Iraq, and their terrorist
  allies, constitute an axis of evil, arming to
  threaten the peace of the worldThey could
  provide these arms to terrorists, giving them the
  means to match their hatred.
• Our enemies believed America was weak and
  materialistic, that we would splinter in fear and
  selfishness. They were as wrong as they are evil.
  The American people have responded magnificently,
  with courage and compassion, strength and resolve.

10

• We can overcome evil with greater good. And we
  have a great opportunity during this time of war
  to lead the world toward the values that will
  bring lasting peace.
• The last time I spoke here, I expressed the hope
  that life would return to normal. In some ways,
  it has. In others, it never will. Those of us who
  have lived through these challenging times have
  been changed by them. We've come to know truths
  that we will never question Evil is real, and it
  must be opposed.

11
The four tenets applied to Iraq

• Saddam as member of axis of evil
• Regime change first step to democratizing Middle
  East
• Regime change in Iraq will US power in Middle
  East
• Saddam has WMDs, military force is the only
  option to deal with him
• Dont need UN resolution, coalition of the
  willing is enough

12
Neoconservatives and slaying monsters

• As global superpower, US has responsibilities for
  maintaining global peace stability
• This means going out and slay monsters that
  threaten that stability
• Not to do so as cowardly dishonourable
• Dont coexist with these regimes, transform them
  (regime change)

13
The Iraq monster

• 9/11 brought the neoconservative doctrine into
  favour
• See this in the importance of making the case for
  invading Iraq
• Rumsfeld vs others
• The American lesson learned Take care of
  threats early.

14
1 doctrine and preventative war

• one percent doctrine if there was even 1 chance
  of a threat materializing, the US should act to
  eliminate it.
• Not a neoconservative tenant - result more of
  impact of 9/11 - some neo-con ideas help
  reinforce it
• Two key estimates to consider in going to war
• 1) probability of threat occurring if you dont
  fight
• 2) probability of winning if you do fight

15

• Probability of the threat occurring if dont go
  to war
• Prospect theory - more risk acceptant in time of
  perceived loss
• Bush advisors in domain of loss so more risk
  acceptant

16

• Probability of success in war
• Bush administration massively confident in
  success
• May 2007 60,000 Iraqi civilians dead, 3400 US
  troops, 250 coalition troops
• Neo-con belief in moral superiority military
  prowess play into this
• Very little thought of post-war because moral
  force behind them

17

• How important do you think these neoconservative
  values were in the decision to invade Iraq?
• Would the invasion have been as likely without
  them?

18
Neoconservatism in the context of other factors

• Other factors contributing to Operation Iraqi
  Freedom
• 9/11 terrorist attacks
• Saddam Husseins weapons of mass destruction
• Desire to spread democracy in the Middle East
• Access to oil resources
• Saudi Arabia as the new regional security pillar
• Israel lobby

19
The future of Neoconservatism

• Neoconservatism is unlikely to be resurrected as
  the guiding philosophy of U.S. foreign policy any
  time soon
• Neoconservatives failed to see that what was
  morally clear to them was not so clear to others.
• Americas prestige, reputation and might was
  damaged by the war in Iraq.
• A strong and vibrant U.S. economy, key unspoken
  assumptions of neoconservatismimploded with the
  sub-prime and financial crisis of 2008.

20
New directions?

• Neoconservatives argue their principles still
  important.
• Obama confronted with a deteriorating situation
  in Afghanistan and he chose to fight instead of
  withdrawing
• Obamas administration showed willingness to
  ascribe to international institutions and law,
  contradicting one of the key tenets of the
  neoconservative approach.
• Preliminary accounts of the Libyan intervention
  suggest the Obama administrations decision to
  use force, has to do with the lessons of Rwanda.

21
Conclusions

• Ideas have important role to play in foreign
  policy, but context and circumstance important in
  determining which come up when
• Domestic factors can have key role influencing
  foreign policy decisions