Purpose%20of%20TDR%20Market%20Analysis

1
Purpose of TDR Market Analysis

• To determine whether and where there is demand
  for development
• over and above whats permitted by baseline
  zoning
• How that demand can be harnessed to conserve land
• While providing an economic incentive for desired
  development

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Potential Receiving Areas Analyzed

• Bayview Ridge Urban Growth Area
• City of Burlington
• Rural Upzones

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Bayview Ridge Urban Growth Area

• Bonus units of residential density in BR-R (from
  4 to 6du/a)
• Rezones from BR-Urban Reserve to BR-Residential
• Industrial Development

4
City of Burlington

• Additional residential development in
  Commercial/Mixed Use zones
• Opportunities for additional Commercial intensity

5
Rural Upzones

• CPAs/Rezones resulting in additional residential
  development potential
• For example from Rural Reserve (1 du/10 acres)
  to Rural Intermediate (1 du/2.5 acres, or 4 du/10
  acres)

6
Preliminary conclusions

• In short-term (1-5 years), development not likely
  to generate significant number of TDR
  transactions.
• Demand down due to Great Recession
• Significant residential zoning exists in
  Burlington and Bayview Ridge UGA

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Nearest opportunities

• The nearest-term TDR market opportunities may be
  for additional units of residential density in
• The Bayview Ridge Residential (BR-R) zone, and
• Certain Mixed Use (Commercial/Residential) zones
  in Burlington.

8
Medium to long-term

• In the medium to long-term (5 20 years),
  consistent with the Countys and Burlingtons GMA
  planning horizons, more market potential will
  appear.

9
Medium to long-term

• As existing capacity in the BR-R zone and
  Burlington Mixed Use Zones is used up,
• And demand emerges to rezone additional land to
  or intensity those zones
• Skagit County and Burlington could require TDR
  purchase for future rezones or intensification

10
Rural upzones

• Few Rural Upzone proposals are considered/approved
  by County each year
• But, there may be significant TDR purchasing
  power associated with upzones which create
  high-value rural lots.
• This is another potential opportunity for a TDR
  purchase requirement.

11
Bayview Ridge Industrial

• Given the information currently available, there
  does not appear to be a ready opportunity to link
  TDR to Industrial development at Bayview Ridge

12
Burlington Commercial

• May be TDR opportunity in Burlington if city is
  willing to consider a Floor to Area Ratio (FAR)
  limit on commercial intensity
• Base FAR limit could be exceeded with a TDR
  purchase

13
Final phase of market analysis

• Will draw on preliminary findings
• Focus analysis on those areas and issues most
  useful in determining TDR feasibility and
  implementation in Skagit County

14
More precise data on

• Developer ability-to-pay for TDR in receiving
  areas
• Estimated value of residential development rights
  in various potential sending site zones, and
• Recommended exchange ratios to make TDR
  transactions viable in the marketplace.

15
Transactions mechanisms

• Recommendations on what type of transaction
  mechanisms most viable in Skagit County given
  market conditions and desire to complement
  Farmland Legacy Program
• Simple buyer-seller
• TDR bank
• Density credit fees

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Bonus densities at Bayview Ridge

• Final phase of market analysis will provide
  essential market data for implementing bonus
  density provisions in BVR subarea plan and PUD
  ordinance