Cycle 24 . . . and More

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Cycle 24 . . . and More

• Carl Luetzelschwab K9LA
• k9la_at_arrl.net
• http//mysite.verizon.net/k9la

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What Were Going to Cover

• Review of Cycle 23
• Generate our own prediction for Cycle 24
• Cycle 24 information
• Cycle 24 impact to Contesting and DXing
• When Will EU Be Back on the Higher Bands?
• Why Was IARU 2009 So Good?
• Predictions for the Glorioso DXpedition

This presentation will be on the PVRC
website visit http//www.pvrc.org/index.html cli
ck on the PVRC Webinars link at the top
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Caveat

• This presentation is from an Amateur Radio
  perspective
• In other words, mostly related to HF propagation
• The Suns solar radiation and the Suns
  disturbances are important in other ways
• Radiation hazards to astronauts and satellites
• Magnetic field activity inducing huge currents at
  ground level
• Orbit mechanics
• Impact to climate
• Over-the-pole airline flights
• For a broader exposure to solar issues, visit the
  Marshall Space Flight Center web site at
• http//solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/

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Speaking of the MSFC . . .

• One of the well-known MSFC solar scientists is
  Dr. David Hathaway
• His latest update on Cycle 24 and solar issues
  was Saturday at the Huntsville (AL) Hamfest
• If you have a chance to attend one of his
  presentations, do it!
• Dr. Hathaways conclusion Solar Cycle 24 has
  begun but is expected to be very weak
• His 2009 presentation is the first one on the
  list at http//solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/presenta
  tions.shtml

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Meridional flow
magnetic pole

• A poleward surface flow
• Sinks inward in the polar regions
• Returns to the equator at some depth.

equator
Nandy Choudhuri (2002)
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A Review of Cycle 23
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Cycle 23

• Began in mid 1996
• Maximum smoothed sunspot number of 121 in April
  2000
• Second peak in November 2001
• Smoothed sunspot number of 116
• Great northern hemisphere 6m F2 openings due to
  winter peak

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Daily, Monthly, Smoothed

• Daily sunspot number (yellow) is very spiky
• Monthly mean sunspot number (blue) is still spiky
• Smoothed sunspot number (red) is very smooth
• Official measure of a sunspot cycle
• The smoothed sunspot number correlates very well
  to monthly median ionospheric parameters (foE,
  foF2, hmF2, etc)
• Our propagation prediction programs are based on
  this correlation

Our propagation predictions are statistical in
nature over a months time frame
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Cycle 23 Compared to Others

• Early on it was very similar to Cycle 20, which
  peaked in late 1968
• It was right around the average maximum of all
  previous cycles (which is a smoothed sunspot
  number of 114)
• Its going longer than the average duration of
  all previous cycles (which is 10.8 years)
• It is lower at solar minimum than the average of
  all previous minimums (which is a smoothed
  sunspot number of 6)

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This Solar Minimum
This solar minimum is unusual compared to other
solar minimums in our lifetimes
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A Look at All Historical Data
This solar minimum not that unusual with respect
to all other solar minimums (yet!)
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Our Own Prediction for Cycle 24
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Long Term Look at Solar Activity

• Good sunspot records only go back to the
  early/mid 1700s
• We can (with reasonable confidence) reconstruct
  solar activity from cosmogenic nuclides
• 10Be in ice cores
• 14C in tree rings
• Cosmogenic nuclides are the result of galactic
  cosmic rays
• High energy protons in the 500 MeV to 20 GeV
  range
• Galactic cosmic rays create showers of secondary
  particles, which eventually includes 10Be and 14C

google galactic cosmic rays and cosmic ray
shower
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Galactic Cosmic Rays

• The Suns magnetic field is stronger during
  sunspot maximum
• Strong magnetic field shields Earth from galactic
  cosmic rays
• The result is less nuclides coming to Earth
• Thus nuclides are low when solar activity is high
• And vice versa nuclides are high when solar
  activity is low

Since galactic cosmic rays show an inverse
relationship to the sunspot cycle, so do nuclides
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Long Term Look at Solar Activity
Remember that high 14C indicates low solar
activity and vice versa
Cycles 5, 6, 7
There are cycles to solar activity other than the
11-year cycle
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All 23 Cycles
Dalton Minimum
un-named Minimum

• We can see those other cycles in this data
• Three maximum periods
• Weve lived through the most intense of these
  three maximum periods
• Two minimum periods
• We appear to be headed for another minimum period

Thus our simple (over-simple?) prediction is for
a low Cycle 24
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Next Max vs Previous Min
Cycle 19 short minimum period before big maximum
Where the current minimum is headed?
Trend that also points to a low Cycle 24
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Cycle 24 Information
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Good News - Cycle 24 Has Started
Cycle 24 spots
White is outward magnetic field line
solar equator
Cycle 23 spots
Black is inward magnetic field line
http//solar-center.stanford.edu/solar-images/magn
etograms.html
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Latest Prediction from NOAA

• Solar minimum was in December 2008
• Maximum of 90 in mid 2013
• Prior to this recent prediction, NOAA had been
  carrying two predictions
• One for a high cycle (140)
• One for a low cycle (90)
• Just two predictions? Nope!

http//www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/
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Many Other Predictions
We simply dont fully understand the processes in
the Sun that generate solar cycles, thus many
different methods employed
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Solar Min in Dec 2008 Really?

• Lack of recent sunspots suggests Cycle 24 will
  not be ramping up per the NOAA prediction
• 40 spotless days and counting (http//spaceweather
  .com)
• More bad news the Australian IPS (Ionospheric
  Prediction Service) has predicted that solar
  minimum wont occur until April 2010
• http//www.ips.gov.au/Solar/1/6
• If we continue to have more spotless days, then
  solar minimum could be around a while

Oh, no April 2010 ! !
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Where Is Cycle 24?
This is the third to the last slide in Dr.
Hathaways 2009 presentation
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Another Maunder Minimum?
Its just too early to tell with any confidence
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Wrong Cycle 24 Predictions

• Are you frustrated with wrong solar cycle
  predictions?
• Remember whats happening here
• Solar scientists dont fully understand the solar
  cycle process
• They are using the scientific method to put forth
  theories and then test their theories with
  previous cycles and with the progress (or lack
  thereof) of Cycle 24
• With solar cycles lasting around 11 years, its a
  slow process
• Many of these theories have predicted past
  performance (several previous solar cycles) very
  well
• But its obvious were still missing something

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Helioseismology
Minimum between Cycle 22 and 23

• The sun generates new jet streams near its poles
  every 11 years
• The streams migrate slowly from the poles to the
  equator and when a jet stream reaches the
  critical latitude of 22 degrees, new-cycle
  sunspots begin to appear
• The stream associated with Cycle 24 has moved
  sluggishly, taking three years to cover a 10
  degree range in latitude compared to only two
  years for the previous solar cycle.
• The jet stream is now, finally, reaching the
  critical latitude, hopefully heralding a return
  of solar activity in the months and years ahead

A helioseismic map of the solar interior. Tilted
red-yellow bands trace solar jet streams. Black
contours denote sunspot activity.
http//science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2009/17jun_jets
tream.htm
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Cycle 24 Impact to Contesting and DXing
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When Is EU Going to Be Back?

• 15m to EU smoothed sunspot number gt 25 (10.7 cm
  smoothed solar flux gt 85)
• 10m to EU - smoothed sunspot number gt 50 (10.7 cm
  smoothed solar flux gt 100)
• Thus consistent F2 openings to EU may return for
• 15m in early 2010 (ARRL DX)
• 10m in late 2010 (CQ WW)
• To reiterate this is all based on Cycle 24
  ramping up soon

10m may be back for CQ WW in 2010
15m may be back for ARRL DX in 2010
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Why Was IARU 2009 So Good?

• The week before the IARU 2009 weekend had the
  highest burst of sunspot activity in a long
  time
• This was coupled with a low Ap index
• The result? Great high band openings

IARU 2009
Qs on the Higher Bands 15m
10m OL9HQ 1164 815 9A0HQ
1326 700 LY0HQ 1280 756 YR0HQ
1140 851 W1AW/KL7 855 324
http//www.solen.info/solar/
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Glorioso DXpedition

• Glorioso is 4 Worldwide Mixed Mode in the 2008
  DX Magazine 100 Most Needed Countries Survey
  (more details in the Jan/Feb 2009 issue)

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Glorioso - September 2009

• Two delays so far
• 1st attempt - May 2008
• 2nd attempt July 2009
• If September 2009 happens, could be a better
• Equinox month higher MUFs
• More sunspots (we can always hope!)
• If they delay even more, then the higher bands
  may be productive!

Run predictions using your favorite prediction
program 20m will likely be your best band East
Coast will likely have good 17m opportunities, too
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Great Circle Paths to Glorioso
East Coast
Midwest
West Coast

• Glorioso sunrise is 0248 UTC
• East Coast has about 3 hours 45 minutes of common
  darkness
• Midwest has about 2 hours 20 minutes of common
  darkness
• West Coast has about 45 minutes of common
  darkness
• Path goes to progressively higher latitudes as we
  move West
• Lower MUFs, more susceptible to disturbances

maps from W6ELProp (free download at
www.qsl.net/w6elprop)
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Summary

• I believe solar scientists are headed towards a
  consensus that Cycle 24 will be a low one
• This also suggests Cycle 25 will be low
• The question with respect to Cycle 24 is when
  will it start ramping up?
• The answer sometime between soon and later
• Regardless of what Cycle 24 does, there will be
  lots of DX to work and lots of QSOs to be made in
  contests

So get radio-active!
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Q A
For good technical information and tutorials
about solar issues, I highly recommend the MSFC
web site at http//solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/ Th
is PowerPoint file is at http//mysite.verizon.net
/k9la