The Science of Climate Change

1
The Science of Climate Change

• J.C. Moore PhD
• Retired Physical Chemist
• JCMooreonline.com

2
(No Transcript)
3
Earths Energy Balance
4
CO2 and Climate

• Arrhenius (1897) Halving CO2 will lead to an
  ice age, doubling it will warm Earth by 4 to 7oC
• G.N. Plass (1956) - Doubling the amount of CO2
  will raise Earths temperature by 3 to 4 oC
• J.T. Kiehl (1997) - Under Clear Skies, CO2
  accounts for 26 of the Greenhouse Effect
• A. Lacis (2010) Greenhouse gases account for
  25 of the Greenhouse Effect, CO2 is the Control
  Knob for the Earths Temperature

5
(No Transcript)
6
CO2 for Last 1000 Years
7
NASA Data
8
(No Transcript)
9
Last Decade Has Been Warmest in Last 130 Years
New Record set in 2014
10
Arctic Ice
11
(No Transcript)
12
(No Transcript)
13
Ice Volume Is More Important
14
Sea Level Rise
15
Ocean Acidification

• We emit 30 billion tons of CO2 annually
• The oceans takes up about 40
• CO2 in water makes carbonic acid
• Oceans have become gt20 more acidic
• It is harder for phytoplankton, coral, and
  crustaceans to make shells
• Phytoplankton support ocean life as they convert
  CO2 to O2

16
CO2 and Plants

• Plants require water, CO2, nitrogen, phosphorous,
  potassium, sunlight, and trace elements
• CO2 is seldom the limiting agent in plant growth
• Greenhouses add CO2 just to replace depleted CO2
• Over-fertilizing, over-watering, or putting a
  shade plant in bright sun will harm the plant
• More CO2 is not necessarily better in most cases

17
Increasing CO2 and Plants

• Some plants will thrive but not all
• Ancient plant have adapted to varying levels of
  180 ppm to 1000 ppm
• Modern plants have adapted to 280 ppm
• Wild plants will adapt faster - Kudzu, Poison
  Ivy, Ragweed, Red Rice, Weeds

18
Agricultural Plants

• Wheat grown at higher CO2 levels produce more
  grains but smaller grains - lower in nitrogen
• Wheat pasture is unaffected by higher CO2 levels
  if sufficient nitrogen is available
• Otherwise, higher CO2 leads to lower nitrogen
  uptake and poorer pasture
• Rice benefits from higher CO2 levels but produces
  less at higher temperatures
• Rice production is declining in some parts of the
  world it is a staple for gt 50 of world
• Higher temperatures and CO2 levels are not
  necessarily better for plants and may be
  detrimental

19
Temperature and Plants

• Tomatoes will not set blossoms if night
  temperatures are above 70 0F
• Fruit trees and other plants may blossom early
  harmed by later freezes
• Some fruit varieties require a number of days
  below freezing to be productive
• Pests such as fleas, ticks, spider mites,
  mosquitoes, squash bugs, pine borers thrive
• Increase in pine borer populations have killed 30
  billion trees
• Many diseases thrive at higher temperatures

20
Future Food Production
21
Weather

• All weather events are affected by climate
  change because the environment in which they
  occur is warmer and moister than it used to be.
      Kevin Trenberth
• Climate change may not be the cause of a
  weather event, but it increases the probability
  that it will be more severe
• Warmer temperatures increase both the rate of
  evaporation and amount of moisture in the air.
• This has doubled the incidence of severe weather,
  floods, droughts, and wildfires.

22
Munich Re Data
23
Scientific Consensus

• The American Chemical Society statement Careful
  and comprehensive scientific assessments have
  clearly demonstrated that the Earths climate
  system is changing rapidly in response to growing
  atmospheric burdens of greenhouse gases and
  absorbing aerosol particles. There is very little
  room for doubt that observed climate trends are
  due to human activities. The threats are serious
  and action is urgently needed to mitigate the
  risks of climate change.
• Over 97 of the active climate scientists agree
• All of the Worlds major science societies have
  adopted similar statements.

24
Second Opinion
25
Coal Use
26
Coal

• Coal is 65 to 95 carbon
• Pollutants produced are mercury,
• cadmium, arsenic, lead,
• sulfur oxides, nitrogen oxides, CO2,
• particulates, and radioactive isotopes of radon.

27
Coal

• Impurities from coal combustion and the coal ash
  end up in the air and water
• Toxic levels of mercury are now found in fish,
  even where natural sources are not available
• We are now emitting 150 times as much CO2 as all
  the worlds volcanoes
• Cutting Coal Use Is Imperative

28
Actions

• Conservation
• New Technology
• IPCC Switch to Renewables ASAP
• Regulation
• Cap and Trade
• Carbon Tax
• Carbon Dividend

29
Republican Leaders

• Teddy Roosevelt Greatly expanded National Park
  System
• Dwight Eisenhower -set aside 9 million acres as
  the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge - one of the
  most pristine wilderness areas in the United
  States
• Richard Nixon - created the EPA - Clean air,
  clean water, open spaces these should once
  again be the birthright of every American. The
  price of economic growth need not and will not be
  deterioration in the quality of our lives and our
  surroundings.
• Barry Goldwater, Mr. Conservative,-While I am
  a great believer in the free enterprise system
  and all that it entails, I am an even stronger
  believer in the right of our people to live in a
  clean and pollution-free environment.
• Ronald Reagan Signed Montreal Protocol reducing
  CFCs, Used cap-and- trade to reduce acid rain
  blowing into Canada- at less cost than even the
  government predicted
• John McCain Proposed a sound energy policy
  based on good stewardship, sound science, and
  reasonableness