Climate Prediction Center

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Climate Prediction Center Monitoring
Products Dr. Gerald Bell Climate Prediction
Center/ NOAA/ NWS National Centers for
Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Camp Springs,
MD www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
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Outline

• Climate monitoring versus assessment
• Overview of CPC climate monitoring products
• Main monitoring products
• Global Temperature and Precipitation
• Drought and Soil Moisture
• ENSO
• Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO)
• Atlantic and East Pacific Hurricanes
• Teleconnections
• 4. Summary

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Climate Monitoring versus Assessment

• Monitoring
• Examination of daily, monthly, seasonal, etc.
  analyses of atmospheric and oceanic variability
• Helps to identify and understand current and past
  short-term climate anomalies
• Critical for understanding and predictions

• Assessment
• Analysis of the current or past conditions
  designed to aid our understanding of a particular
  climate phenomenon or event.
• Examples ENSO Assessments, special climate
  assessments, seasonal climate asssessments.
• Critical for understanding and predictions

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Overview of CPC Monitoring Products
CPC home Page www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
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Overview of CPC Monitoring Products
Expert Assessments
Index
Expert Assessments
Climate Diagnostics Bulletin Weather and Climate
Hazards ENSO, Drought Special Climate
Summaries Annual Climate Assessments Seasonal
Climate Monitoring
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Overview of CPC Monitoring Products
Seasonal Climate Monitoring
Index
Expert Assessments
Seasonal Climate Summaries
Seasonal Assessment, SST, Circulation in Tropics
and Extratropics,Precipitation, Temperature,
Animations
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Overview of CPC Monitoring Products
Monitoring and Data
Index
Other items on page Drought Soil Moisture Snow
Cover Degree Days Africa Maps and Data Pacific
Islands data Forecast Performance
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Surface Temperature Monitoring
Daily Temperature Analysis
Click

• Analyses in (F) and (C)
• Analyses include
• Mean Temps, Max and Min Temps
• Daily, 5-day, 7 day, 30 day, 90 day
• Data Stations
• River Forecast Centers 2500/per day
• Hydrologic Auto data System 1500/ day
• Grid resolution 0.5 X 0.5 degree

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Surface Temperature Monitoring 30-day Means and
Anomalies
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Surface Temperature Monitoring
365-day Temperature Time Series
Click
Monitoring and Data
Temperature Time Series
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Precipitation Monitoring
Daily Precipitation Analysis
Click
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Precipitation Monitoring
Daily Precipitation Analysis
United States
Click

• Gridded Precipitation Analyses include
• Daily, 7 day, 30 day, 90 day, 180 day,
• 365-day averages, month-to-date totals.
• Download gridded data
• Data Stations
• River Forecast Centers 5000/per day
• Hydrologic Auto data System 1500/ day
• Minimum of 500 stations required
• Grid resolution 0.25 X 0.25 degree
• Quality Control
• Duplicate Station Check
• Data check (buddy check, outliers
• NEXRAD check for spurious zeros

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Daily Precipitation Analysis Example of 180-day
Precipitation Analysis
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Daily Precipitation Analysis Precipitation
Station Coverage
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Precipitation Monitoring
Global Precipitation Time Series
Monitoring and Data
Precipitation Time Series
Click
Click on station to get Precipitation time series
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Precipitation Monitoring
Example of 90-day Precipitation Time Series
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Drought monitoring
Monitoring Data
U.S. Climate Data Maps
Products
Drought
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Drought Monitoring Palmer Drought Index
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Soil Moisture
Monitoring Data
Index
Soil Moisture

• Soil Moisture Analysis
• Outlook Maps
• Evaporation
• Runoff
• Recent Anomalies
• Recent Changes
• Climatology
• Drought Indicators

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Soil Moisture Example of Soil Moisture Anomalies
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U.S. Drought Assessment
Climate Highlights
Drought Assessment
Home

• Information Used to Make Drought Outlook
• Seasonal Outlooks
• Drought data
• Drought Indicator Blends
• Soil Moisture Data
• Precip. and Temp.

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Monitoring Tropical Climate Variability
Home
Climate Weather
MJO
El Niño /La Nina

• Current ConditionsWeekly Update (.ppt)
• Animations
• Weekly and Monthly Analyses
• Diagnostics Discussion
• Tutorial

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Monitoring Tropical Climate Variability
Powerpoint Presentations of latest ENSO and MJO
conditions
Weekly ENSO Update
El Niño /La Nina
ENSO Evolution, Status, and Prediction
Presentation
Weekly MJO Update
MJO
MJO Weekly Update
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Monitoring Tropical Climate Variability
Time Series of Weekly SST Anomalies for the 4
Niño Regions
Weekly SST Anomalies
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Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR)
AnomaliesMeasures Anomalous Tropical Convection
Monitoring Tropical Climate Variability
Drier-than-average conditions (orange/red shading)
Time
Wetter-than-average conditions (blue shading)
Longitude
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Monitoring Tropical Climate Variability
Madden / Julian Oscillation (MJO)
200-hPa Velocity Potential Anomalies show MJO
the best
Positive anomalies (brown shading) indicate
unfavorable conditions for precipitation.
Negative anomalies (green shading) indicate
favorable conditions for precipitation.
Longitude
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Subsurface Temperature Departures in Equatorial
Pacific
Monitoring Tropical Climate Variability
Ocean model creates gridded sub-surface
temperature using buoy data, sounding data
from TOGA TAO array, etc.
Mid-Feb Early Mar Mid-Mar Early Apr
EL Niño Warming along Thermocline, Combined with
down-welling phase of Kelvin Wave triggered by
MJO Anomalous warmth in East due to Kelvin Wave.
180 120W
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Monitoring North Atlantic and East Pacific
Hurricane Potential
Monitoring and Data
Index
Monitoring Atlantic Hurricane Potential
Monitoring East. Pac. Hurricane Potential
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Monitoring North Atlantic Hurricane Potential
Analyses are related to Monitoring key
Circulation features associated with Hurricane
formation
Enhanced Tropical Easterly Jet (200-mb)
Warmer SSTs Lower Vertical Wind Shear and Surface
Pressure (Red Area)
Higher Pressure in Upper Atmosphere
Upper-level Easterlies Expand Westward (Green
arrows)
Favorable African Easterly Jet
Weaker Easterly Trade Winds (Dark Blue arrow)
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Monitoring North Atlantic Hurricane Potential
Weekly SST Departures
Very warm SSTs persist in Tropical Atlantic
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Monitoring North Atlantic Hurricane Potential
700-hPa African Easterly Jet (AEJ)
AEJ already showing increased cyclonic shear and
weaker easterly trades. Classic signal for
active Hurricane season
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Monitoring North Atlantic Hurricane Potential
Area-averaged 200-hPa streamfunction anomalies
Show strength of subtropical ridge across the
North Atlantic
Orange shows enhanced subtropical ridge.
Strong intra-seasonal variability due to MJO is
seen.
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Northern Hemisphere Teleconnection Patterns
Monthly and Daily analyses
Monthly
Monitoring and Data
Index
Northern Hemisphere Teleconnection Patterns
Daily
Climate and Weather
Teleconnections
Monthly Patterns, Calculation procedure,
Description of 10 leading teleconnection
patterns Time Series
Associated temp and precipitation
departures Daily Observed time series of PNA,
NAO, AO. MRF and ensemble forecasts
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Northern Hemisphere Teleconnection Patterns
North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Time
Series Based on standardized 500-hPa height
anomalies
Daily
Monthly
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Northern Hemisphere Teleconnection Patterns
MRF Model Forecasts of NAO
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Northern Hemisphere Teleconnection Patterns
Ensemble Model Forecasts of NAO
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Summary
Atlantic SST Anomalies
200-hPa Velocity Potential Anomalies