Defining and Building Scenarios

1
Defining and Building Scenarios

• Target market Definition who is the target
  market?
• Analyzing Customer Behavior will HDTV be
  perceived as a truly innovative product or just
  another TV (replacement/additional)?
• Defining Externalities Will FCC make the
  decision on time? Will software be available?

2

• Scenario Planning (SP) attempts to compensate for
  2 common errors in decision making under
  prediction and over prediction of change.
• Knowledge is divided into 2 areas
• Things that we believe we know something about
  and,
• Elements we consider uncertain or unknowable.
• SP attempts to capture the richness range of
  possibilities, stimulating decision makers to
  consider changes that they would otherwise
  ignore. Scenario are aimed at challenging the
  prevailing mind-set.
• With over 50 foreign cars already on sale here,
  the Japanese auto industry isnt likely to carve
  out a bit slice of the U.S. market for itself.
  (Business Week August 2, 1968.)