MB06

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MB06 07 Planning PLUSNet MeetingAPL, UW, Oct
25, 2006
Coupled Ocean and Acoustic Modeling, Data
Assimilation, Predictionsand Adaptive Sampling
Recommendations
Pierre Lermusiaux, Patrick Haley, Wayne Leslie,
Oleg Logutov Ding Wang, Henrik Schmidt and
Donald Eickstedt
HARVARD MIT Modeling, Predictions and
Adaptive Sampling Team
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Harvard PLUSNet Goals and Objectives 2.5
Environmentally Adaptive Sensing and Network
Control

• Goal To provide (sub)-mesoscale environmental
  fields/picture to MIT and PLUSNet, using new
  multi-scale environmental data-driven forecasting
  systems and new HU-MIT physical-acoustical
  adaptive sampling schemes
• Specific objectives are to
• Research and develop a new nested sub-mesoscale
  (non)-hydrostatic ocean modeling system within
  coarser regional domains for improved acoustic
  predictions
• Investigate and carry out physical-acoustical-seab
  ed estimation and data assimilation
• Evaluate oceanic sub-mesocale parameterizations
  and study selected sub-mesoscale/mesoscale
  interactions and their acoustical impacts
• Collaborate with other efforts sponsored by ONR
  and NRL
• Lead the environmental PLUSNet scientific
  research, coordinating the HU and Scripps
  contributions (e.g. internal tide conversions,
  sub-mesoscale eddy mixing and atmospheric forcing)

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Major MB06 Accomplishments

1. Daily ocean environment data assimilation and
   prediction.
2. Daily acoustic-environment prediction and TL
   prediction.
3. Daily optimization and recommendations for
   Adaptive Rapid Environmental Assessment (AREA).
4. Recommendations for capturing fronts.
5. Ocean data management and checks for PLUSNet
   assets, relay to MBARI COOP.
6. Web-based distribution of all our outputs and
   results.

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http//ocean.deas.harvard.edu/PLUSNet
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http//ocean.deas.harvard.edu/PLUSNet
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Example of Daily Summary Description Emails

• Environmental and acoustic nowcasts and
  predictions up to 00Z Aug 26 are available from
  http//oceans.deas.harvard.edu/PLUSNet
• http//oceans.deas.harvard.edu/PLUSNet/Aug25/plus
  net_product.html
• Product files are in http//oceans.deas.harvard.
  edu/PLUSNet/Products
• Upwelling event is ending and our forecasts
  indicate that relaxation conditions (warmer
  surface temperatures and no wind-driven currents)
  will start tomorrow. See for example tomorrow's
  afternoon surface sound speed and current
  vectors http//oceans.deas.harvard.edu/PLUSNet/Au
  g25/PN/Forecast/ssp000_aug27_fcst_00Z_PN.gif
• Based on our studies of the past week of
  transmission loss estimates, relaxation
  conditions correspond to -more- mean loss at
  100Hz and 400Hz than upwelling conditions. The
  average difference at 100-400Hz and at 10km range
  is about 3 to 8db more mean loss. It would be
  very interesting to find out if the measured mean
  acoustic performance (TL)at these frequencies
  over 7 to 15km ranges is lower tomorrow afternoon
  than it has been in the past days of upwelling
  conditions.
• Vertically averaged current velocities in the
  PLUSNet ops area are expected to be to the
  northwest, following the coastline. For example,
  for tomorrow morning http//oceans.deas.harvard.e
  du/PLUSNet/Aug25/PN/Forecast/vave_PN_aug26_fcst_12
  Z.gif
• Surface velocities are expected to be patchy.
  For drifting behaviors, we recommend to combine
  it with a vertical yoyo so as to be drifting in
  vertically averaged currents, which are forecast
  to the northwest.
• Transmission loss predictions available from
  http//oceans.deas.harvard.edu/PLUSNet/Prolog/Aug2
  5/index.html

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Major Accomplishment I (cont.)
I Daily Ocean Environment DA and Predictions
Methodology
Error Subspace Statistical Estimation
Harvard Ocean Prediction System
Uncertainty forecasts, Ensemble-based,
Multivariate DA, Adaptive sampling, Towards
multi-model estimates
Free-surface PE, Generalized biological models,
Coupled to acoustic models, XML schemes to check
configuration
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Major Accomplishment I (cont.)

• Free-Surface Ocean Model (HOPS)
• Tidal and atmospheric forcing
• Twice-daily data assimilation
• Nested Ocean Modeling with Grid-computing in Two
  Domains
• Monterey Bay/San Francisco Domain 1.5 km
  resolution
• PLUSNet - Ano Nuevo Domain 0.5 km resolution

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Major Accomplishment I (cont.)
I Daily Ocean Environment DA and
Predictions Undersea Weather
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Measured and Estimated Sound Speed Radial 4
Measured and Estimated Averaged Currents 0-200m
OPAREA Bathymetry and Analysis Radials
Surface SSP and Currents
100m Depth SSP and Currents
30m Depth SSP and Currents
See http//ocean.deas.harvard.edu/PLUSNet for
twice daily plots and hourly data files
(including tides)
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APL- HU Collaboration Use and Evaluation of
Surface Drift Predictions by the Seaglider Team
Bob Miyamoto, Bruce Howe and APL collaborators
utilized our HOPS ocean model predictions of
surface currents to plan their drifting
missions APL uses the HOPS currents to compute a
drift prediction. The result (green curve) is
compared to the observed glider drift while on
the surface.
Case 2 Not good. Atmos. and ocean models seem in
phase error in time (see u change) and space
(see weaker currents to the east)
Case 1 better agreement than dreamed! Note sharp
east-west gradient captured by the nested ocean
models including tides
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Major Accomplishment II
II Daily Coupled Acoustic-Environment and TL
Predictions MB06 is the first time this has been
done
Seabed Modeling (thanks to M.Porter et al)
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Forecast Surface Currents (used by PLUSNet assets
for planning drifting missions)
OPAREA Bathymetry and Analysis Radials
TL Prediction (issued on Aug 22 12Z) along Radial
6, for a source at 5m and a receiver at 75m
Sound Speed Radial 6
See http//ocean.deas.harvard.edu/PLUSNet for
twice daily TL plots and hourly data files
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Major Accomplishment II (cont.)
II Daily Acoustic-Environment and TL
Predictions (cont.)
Upwelling B6 D1 8_22_06
Relaxation B6 D3 8_25_06
SVP(m/s)
SVP(m/s)
f100Hz, sz40m
TL filed (dB)
TL filed (dB)
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Major Accomplishment II (cont.)
II Daily Acoustic-Environment and TL
Predictions (cont.)
Upwelling B6 D1 8_22_06
Relaxation B6 D3 8_25_06
Relaxation conditions (warmer surface
temperatures and no wind-driven currents)
correspond to more mean loss at 100Hz and 400Hz
than upwelling conditions 3 to 8db more mean
loss over 7 to 15km.
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Major Accomplishment III
III Daily Optimization and Recommendations
for Adaptive Sampling and AREA
The True Ocean
SVP Forecast From HOPS/ESSE
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Major Accomplishment III (cont.)
III Daily Optimization and Recommendations
for Adaptive Sampling and AREA
Suboptimal yoyo control
Suboptimal predetermined path
Suboptimal predetermined path (2-way)
Suboptimal on-board adaptive path
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Major Accomplishment III (cont.)
III Daily Optimization and Recommendations
for Adaptive Sampling and AREA
Posteriori TL std map after the suboptimal
predetermined path
A priori TL std map
Above TL uncertainty estimates (std) do not
account for most internal wave effects. They
account for impacts of mesoscale ocean
uncertainties and tidal effects.
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Major Accomplishment III (cont.)
III Daily Optimization and Recommendations
for Adaptive Sampling and AREA
Example of email sent daily
8/22/06 Starting point lat36.9414,
long-122.2232 1. Bearing180 degree clockwise
from the north, waypoints are r 0 1 2
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
km z 0 50 75.0000 75.0000 100.0000
50.0000 0 50.0000 0 50.0000 100.0000
m 2. Bearing180 degree clockwise from the
north, max range10km, optimal yoyo control
parameters are(10, 0.5) XXX.Initialize(5, 100,
0, 10, 0.5)//upper bound 5m lower bound 100m
initial depth 0m points10 threshold 0.5. 3.
Bearing180 degree clockwise from the north
ADPltdoublegt DW_ADP
DW_ADP.Initialize( )
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Major Accomplishment III (cont.)
III Daily Optimization and Recommendations
for Adaptive Sampling and AREA
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Major Accomplishment IV
IV Recommendations for capturing fronts

1. Make in-situ measurements crossing the fronts.
2. Make a horizontal yoyo control focusing on the
   fronts.
3. Tracking temperature gradients.

8_24_06 Afternoon
8_24_06 Morning
8_24_06 Afternoon
8_24_06 Morning
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Major Accomplishment IV (cont.)
IV Recommendations for capturing fronts issued
twice
Example of one of the email sent
8/23/06 In the morning1. run predetermined
path Waypoints are (lat36.916774452289long-12
2.190015784337), (36.959751554578 
-122.262152715663),(36.966729966627,
-122.255703125301),(36.923748958313 ,
-122.183563374699),depth0m2. or run this
Starting point lat 36.916774452289  ,
long-122.190015784337, depth0m. 
DingWang_2D_Gradientltdoublegt DW_Gradient 
DW_Gradient.Initialize(270., -1)//the initial
AUV direction is 270 degreeclockwise from the
north -1 follow the opposite gradient
directionlet AUV hit the northwest side of
PLUSNet box, and then directly come back.In the
afternoon3. Waypoints are (36.927933661928 
-122.179691928916), (36.970917013855,-122.2518333
71084), (36.977895425904,  -122.245383780723),
(36.934908167952-122.173239519277),
depth0m.4. Starting point lat
36.927933661928  , long -122.179691928916,
depth0m.DingWang_2D_Gradientltdoublegt
DW_Gradient  DW_Gradient.Initialize(306.663991.,
-1)//the initial AUV direction is 306degree
clockwise from the north -1 follow the opposite
gradient directionlet AUV hit the northwest side
of PLUSNet box, and then directly come back.
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Major Accomplishment IV (cont.)
IV Recommendations for capturing fronts
Realized at sea once
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HU MB06 Deliverables and Needs

• Deliverables
• Substantial measured T,S data and data-driven
  ocean-acoustic model estimates, which we will
  continue to improve and distribute
• Model estimates also available in relocated area
  (Monterey Bay)
• Needs
• To write collaborative papers, we need
  quantitative evidence (plots, data) to support
  successful or failed usage of our estimates, e.g
  
• Marc Stewarts email based on our SE currents
  predictions in S corner of domain Pierre,
  You'll be interested to know that our Restech
  reported substantial SE surface current in the S
  corner of the PLUSNet box today as she attempted
  to recover a Bluefin in an Avon. I personally
  doubted it, but now I know better! Thanks, Marc
• For FY07, PLUSNet should create a real-time coop
  web-page where such feedback and other data can
  be posted (e.g. Warren Foxs suggestion Data
  transfer interface / client-server architecture)

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Research-Work FY07 Focus in Blue

• 1. Multi-Scale and Non-Hydrostatic Nested Ocean
  Modeling
• Research and develop relocatable sub-mesoscale
  nested modeling capability
• Higher-resolution hydrostatic model (Mini-HOPS)
• HOPS coupled with non-hydrostatic models
• (2D to 3D Lamb, Smolarkiewicz or MIT-GCM)
• Compare parameterizations of sub-mesoscales and
  boundary layers, and evaluate with HOPS and ROMS
  (run at HU, continue to collaborate with Scripps)

• 2. Coupled Physical-Acoustical Data Assimilation
  in real-time
• Integrate and optimize physical-acoustical DA
  software with Mini-HOPS and AREA
• Initiate coupled physical-acoustical-seabed
  estimation and DA
• Couple mini-HOPS/ESSE with selected sonar
  performance prediction (End-2-End System)

3. Acoustical-Physical Nonlinear Adaptive
Sampling with ESSE and AREA

• Implement and progressively demonstrate in
  FY05-06-07 automated adaptive environmental
  sampling, integrating mini-HOPS and ESSE with
  AREA/NAFCON
• Continue ocean-TL predictions (done for first
  time during MB06)
• Compute TL on denser spatial grids and for varied
  (higher) frequencies (with APL)
• Provide field and uncertainty estimates to NAFCON
  and coordinate with Penn State for real-time
  display (towards end-to-end TDAs)

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Papers with PLUSNet support
Published/Submitted Lermusiaux P.F.J., 2006.
Uncertainty Estimation and Prediction for the
Interdisciplinary Ocean. Special issue of the
Journal of Computational Physics on Uncertainty
Quantification''. James Glimm and George
Karniadakis, Editors. 176-199. Lermusiaux P.F.J,
2006. Adaptive Sampling, Adaptive Data
Assimilation and Adaptive Modeling. Special issue
of the J. of Inverse Problems on Mathematical
Issues and Challenges in Data Assimilation for
Geophysical Systems Interdisciplinary
Perspectives''. Christopher K.R.T. Jones and Kayo
Ide, Eds. Under review. Wang D., P.F.J.
Lermusiaux, P.J. Haley, W.G. Leslie and H.
Schmidt, 2006. Adaptive Acoustical-Environmental
Assessment for the Focused Acoustic Field-05
At-sea Exercise, Proceedings of IEEE/MTS
Oceans'06 Conference, Boston, MA, September
18-21, 2006, 6pp. In Press. Yilmaz N.K., C.
Evangelinos, N.M. Patrikalakis, P.F.J.
Lermusiaux, P.J. Haley, W.G. Leslie, A.R.
Robinson, D. Wang and H. Schmidt, 2006. Path
Planning Methods for Adaptive Sampling of
Environmental and Acoustical Ocean Fields,
Proceedings of IEEE/MTS Oceans'06 Conference,
Boston, MA, September 18-21, 2006, 6pp In Press.
In Preparation (working titles) Wang, Schmidt,
Lermusiaux et al. AREA for PLUSNet MB06 and
FAF05. To be prepared for IEEE. Lermusiaux, Wang,
Schmidt, Haley, Leslie, Fox?, Wilson?, et al.
Coupled ocean-acoustic Predictions during MB06
for PLUSNet. Short paper to be prepared to
JASA Shipley, Stewart, Schmidt et al.
PLUSNet-MB06 team short paper? (to do
asap?) Seaglider team and HU team. Planning of
drifting missions using seaglider and
HOPS? Curcio et al. Ocean data from autonomous
kayaks for physical oceanography and ocean
modeling, JRL