Disclaimer

1
Disclaimer
The material contained in this PPT is a raw
model output and research product. This is meant
for scientific use. For any clarification/interpre
tation, please contact India Meteorological
Department.
2
INITIAL CONDITION 5th July 2015
Working group on Extended Range Prediction
Ministry of Earth Sciences, Govt. of India
3

• This MME forecast has been prepared using the CFS
  (T126 T382) and GFSbc (T126 T382) (each 11
  members) .

Real-time forecast based on 5th July 2015 initial
condition
4
Daily evolution of rainfall and wind at 850hPa
(by MME)
5
Daily evolution of vorticity at 850hPa and mean
sea level pressure (by MME)
6
Daily evolution of minimum and maximum
temperature (by MME)
7
Daily evolution of minimum and maximum
temperature Anomaly (by MME)
8
Predicted pentad wise temperature anomaly (by MME)
9
Daily evolution of divergence and winds at 200hPa
and 500mb Geopotential Height (by MME)
10
Predicted pentad wise rainfall (by MME)
11
MISO monitoring and forecast for next 25 days
12
Area averaged rainfall over homogeneous regions
predicted by MME
13
Area averaged rainfall over MZI region predicted
by MME
14
Area averaged rainfall over CEI region predicted
by MME
15
Area averaged rainfall over NEI region predicted
by MME
16
Area averaged rainfall over NWI region predicted
by MME
17
Area averaged rainfall over SPI region predicted
by MME
18
Key points from the present forecast

• The next 20 days forecast indicates that
• 1) Rainfall, MSLP and other charts indicate that
  the monsoon activity will be largely subdued over
  Indian landmass for next 20 days except foothills
  of Himalayas. Continuous rainfall along the
  foothills may increase the water level in the
  rivers of North India.
• 2) The forecast during July indicates that there
  will be absence of large scale monsoon system
  resulting in below normal rainfall during July.
• 3) MISO associated convective activity is
  expected to form over Indian ocean after 10-15
  days and likely to move towards Central India
  around 25th July.
• 4) MJO associated strong convection over Western
  Pacific may weaken after 15 days and may enhance
  the convective activity over Indian land after 20
  days.

19
MISO forecast and its verification
20
Thanks..