Land Surface Memory

1
ISAM4, Kunming, China, 24-29 May, 2004
Land Surface Memory Hydrological Cycle Over
Asia and Its Impacts on Summer Monsoon
System Yun Fan Huug van den
Dool CPC/NCEP/NWS/NOAA
2
Outline

• Motivations
• Asian Monsoon Soil Moisture
• Land Surface Hydrological cycle long term
  variation
• Land Memory
• Local non-local impacts
• Summary

3
Motivations

• Soil moisture often has a longer memory
• Drought flood monitoring
• Land surface processes
• Coupled atmosphere-land-ocean modeling
• land memory predictability studies

4
CPC Leaky Bucket Soil Moisture Model

• The soil moisture budget over an area A
• Where W(t) is soil water content
  P(t) precipitation E(t)
  evaportranspiration
• R(t) net streamflow divergence
  G(t) net groundwater loss
• Forcing Data
• -CPC Monthly Global Precipitation Over
  Land
• -Monthly Global Reanalysis/CDAS
  Temperature
• Data Coverage 56 years (1948-present)

5

• Current CPC soil moisture monitor prediction
  activities
• Drought flood monitoring
• Empirical forecast tools (Constructed Analog)
• GFS forecast climate prediction

6
Simulated extreme hydrological events
7
(No Transcript)
8
(No Transcript)
9
(No Transcript)
10
(No Transcript)
11
(No Transcript)
12
(No Transcript)
13
(No Transcript)
14
(No Transcript)
15
(No Transcript)
16
Southeast China
17
Bengal
18
(No Transcript)
19
Summary Future work

• Soil moisture an important factor for climate
• monitoring prediction
• Land surface hydrological cycles
• LSMs can simulate some realistic land features
• Need more detailed analysis studies
• Data validation, model comparisons improvements
• Modeling Prediction experiments
• Global Retrospective LDAS Run