SFF HDD and Flash Memories

1
SFF HDD and Flash Memories Coexistence or
Competition?
A Summary of IDEMA Symposium February 17,
2005 Westin Hotel, Santa Clara, CA
Vs.
Dr. Ed Grochowski DISKCON AP Rama Gardens Hotel
Bangkok March 14, 2005 Orchid Country Club,
Singapore March 16-17, 2005
2
Symposium Objectives

• Review Technical Attributes of HDD and Flash
  Technologies
• Determine Present and Future Applications for
  Each
• What HDD FF Are Required To Meet Applications
• What Flash Products Are Required to Meet
  Applications
• Areas Where Each Will Compete
• Areas Where Each Will Coexist
• Areas Where Each Could Dominate

Ed Grochowski
3
Scope of Study

• Consumer Based Applications
• Digital Still Cameras
• Video Cameras
• Mobile phones
• MP3 Players
• GPS
• Games
• Small FF HDD, 2.5 inch, 1.8 inch, 1.0 inch, 0.85
  inch
• Flash Capacities
• Unit Prices and Projections

Ed Grochowski
4
Why This Symposium?

1. Explosion of Storage For Consumer Based
   Applications
2. SFF HDD Have Made Inroads in Traditional Flash
   Territory
3. Demand For Higher Storage Capacities May Open New
   Opportunities For SFF HDD
4. Both Flash And SFF HDDS Are Evolving
5. In Certain Applications Both Technologies Will
   Coexist

Ed Grochowski
5
(No Transcript)
6
1000
DRAM/Flash
100
10
60 CGR
1
512M
Areal Density, Gbits/inch2
256M
25 CGR
64M
0.1
40 CGR
16M
25 2X per 3 years
40 2
0.01
60 1.5
4M
100 1
1M
0.001
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
AREAL2005EGa.PRZ
Year
Ed Grochowski
7
A Clear Dichotomy has Emerged
High Capacity High Capacity
Lowest /GB
Form Factor 3.5 inch
GB 40 500
LxWxH 5.8 x 4.0 x 1.0
Power(Idle) 5.7 10 Watts
Shock NonOp 350G/225G Operating 55G
Robust Mobility Robust Mobility
Highest /GB
Form Factor 0.85 1.8 inch
GB 2 60
LxWxH 1.26x0.94x0.13 2.76x2.13x0.28
Power(Write) lt1.0 to 1.4 Watts
Shock NonOp 1500G Op 1000G 500G
John Buttress,IDC
8
Many Markets, Many Configurations required for
HDDs in Digital CE applications for next 3 years
3.5" Hi Cap
2.5"
1"
1" CF
3.5" Ext
3.5" LC
1.8"
.85"
DVR Home Media Gaming MP3 Mobile Video
Players Cell Phones Multi function
devices Digital Cameras Digital Camcorders Auto
Navigation Auto Entertainment
Pat OMalley, Seagate
Interfaces required PATA, SATAUSB, CF, CEATA,
1394
9
HH Units TAM by Form Factor
160

• 1.8
• Significant upside but limited growth
• High-end HH devices photo MP3, Portable Media
  Player
• 1.0 2hd
• Estimate 500 growth rate from 2004 to 2005
• MP3 player explosion
• Market is still supply limited
• Mobile Phone FF
• 2.5G technology support Messaging Service(i.e.
  SMS)
• Started to adopt 3G technology which enables up
  to 2 Mbps transfer rate
• Estimate 60M units smart phone and 390M units of
  camera phone in 2005

Millions
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
1.8"
1"
Mobile phone

• Pat OMalley, Seagate

• Source Seagate SMP,IDC

10
John Osterhout, Hitachi GST
11
John Osterhout, Hitachi GST
12
John Osterhout, Hitachi GST
13
The Forest From The Trees

• HDD Unit TAM vs. NAND Unit Flash TAM

Million Units
1,600
1,400
Total HDD Units
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
-
2004
2005
2006
2007
Total NAND Flash Cards and NAND Systems, Million
Units - SanDisk Estimates Jan05 HDD Unit Forecast
TrendFOCUS Apr04
Wes Brewer, SanDisk