Life Expectancy-1930

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Life Expectancy-1930
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Life Expectancy-1960
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Life Expectancy-1990
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Factors Affecting Human Population Size
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Current Status

• World Population Size 6.8 billion
• World Growth Rate 1.4, 84 million/year
• U.S. Population Size 273.6 million

6.1 billion people are breeding exponentially.
The process of fulfilling their needs and wants
is stripping Earth of its biotic capacity to
produce life.
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Birth Death Rates
Birth and death rates are coming down, but death
rates have fallen more sharply than birth rates.
Hence more birth than death occur.

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Population Growth
Worlds population will double in 52 years
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Population projections by regions (1999 2025)
Over 95 of this increase will take place in
Developing Countries
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Total fertility rates in 2000
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Total fertility rates for the US
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Infant Mortality Rates
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3. Human Carrying Capacity
Can the world/biosphere provide an adequate
standard for the increasing population or are we
at the limit?
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Computer Models

• The Limits to Growth (1972) predicted economic
  environmental collapse

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U.S. 278 million people

• fertility near replacement rate
• continued population increase because of
  immigration.

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India 1 billion1/5 of worlds population

• 1952 first national family planning program
• program disappointing
• fertility still 3.5.

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China 1.3 billion people 1/5 of worlds
population

• since 1970 efforts to better feed people
  control population growth
• strict population control measures prevent
  couples from having more than one child
• although considered coercive, the policy is
  significantly slowing population growth.

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How to Reduce Population Growth?

• improve access to family planning reproductive
  health care
• improve heath care for infants, children,
  pregnant women
• improve equality between men women
• increase access to education, especially for
  girls
• increase the involvement of men in child rearing
  family planning
• reduce poverty
• reduce eliminate unsustainable patterns of
  production consumption.

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Current Situation

• Each year nearly 11 million children die before
  the age of five,30,000 every day,largely from
  preventable causes.
• 50 of these deaths occur in only six countries
  90 of these deaths occur in 42 of 192 countries.
• 41 of these deaths occur in Africa, which has
  only 10 of the worlds under-five population.
• 33 of all child deaths occur in the first month
  of life.

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11 Million Children Die/year (70 From 5 Major
Causes)
Malnutrition 56
Birth Trauma Neonatal Deaths Tetanus Fever Low
Birth Weight
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Causes of Death in the World Agelt5 yrs
of Deaths
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Main Causes of Death
Disease or Condition Proportion of Under-five Deaths
Neonatal Illnesses 33
Diarrhea 22
Pneumonia 21
Malaria 9
AIDS 3
Measles 1
Other 9
Malnutrition is an underlying cause of 53 of all child deaths Malnutrition is an underlying cause of 53 of all child deaths
Source The Lancet. Vol.361, June 28, 2003
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Under-Five Mortality Rate Regional and Global
Averages
Deaths per 1,000 Live Births
Source UNICEF Times Series Estimates, 2000
Year
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Neonatal Mortality Relative to Infant Mortality
Deaths per 1,000 Live Births
Source Demographic Health Surveys
Country
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Infectious Diseases

• Tuberculosis prevention, control treatment
• Malaria prevention, control treatment
• Anti-microbial resistance
• Local capacity for surveillance and response

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Gaps in Child Survival

• Gaps in child mortality are increasing between
  rich and poor countries.
• Mortality rates in sub-Saharan Africa average 175
  per 1,000, compared to 6 per 1000 in
  industrialized countries.
• Within countries, gaps in mortality rates between
  rich and poor children are also increasing.

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Urban/Rural Under-five Mortality Rates by Country
Deaths per 1,000 Live Births
Source Demographic Health Surveys
Country
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We Know What Works

• Six million children each year could be saved
  with basic, cost-effective measures such as
  vaccines, antibiotics, insecticide-treated bed
  nets, breastfeeding, micronutrients, and health
  and nutrition education.
• We know what it takes to improve child health but
  increased resources are needed to ensure all
  children have access to these proven measures.

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Child deaths from HIV/AIDS during 1997
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Estimated impact of AIDS on under-5 child
mortality rates
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DALYs

• Disability Adjusted Life Years
• QALY Quality Adjusted Life-Years
• Both are attempts to express burden of disease in
  a single number

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Most significant public health achievements in
the U.S. in the 20th Century

• Vaccination
• Motor-vehicle safety
• Safer workplaces
• Control of infectious diseases
• Decline in deaths from coronary heart disease and
  stroke
• Healthier mothers and babies
• Recognition of tobacco as the major killer and
  cause of disease

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20th Century Environmental Health Events

• 1906 Pure Food and Drug Act
• 1918 Flu Epidemic
• 1948 Donora PA. Air Pollution Episode
• 1952 London England Air Poll. Episode
• 1958 Mercury Poisoning Minamata Bay
• 1962 Rachel Carsons Silent Spring
• 1970 Earth Day-Sen. Gaylord Nelson

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20th Century Environmental Health Events Cont.

• 1970 U.S. Clean Air Act, EPA, OSHA Created
• 1972 Federal Water Pollution Control Act,
  Consumer Product Safety Act
• 1974 Superfund Act
• 1975 Safe Drinking Water Act
• 1976 Resource Conservation and Recovery Act
• Toxic Substances Control Act
• 1979 Three Mile Island
• 1984 Bhopal India
• 1986 Chernobyl