Tsunami Simulation for the warning and risk evaluation

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Joint Regional Conference on Disaster Relief and
Management International Cooperation Role of
ICT Help at Alexandria, Egypt during the period
from 14 to 17 April 2007
Joint Regional Conference on Disaster Relief and
Management International Cooperation Role of
ICT Held at Alexandria, Egypt during the period
from 14 to 17 April 2007
Tsunami Simulation for warning
Joint Regional Conference on Disaster Relief and
Management International Cooperation Role of
ICT Help at Alexandria, Egypt during the period
from 14 to 17 April 2007
Joint Regional Conference on Disaster Relief and
Management International Cooperation Role of
ICT Held at Alexandria, Egypt during the period
from 14 to 17 April 2007
2
What is Tsunami?
Joint Regional Conference on Disaster Relief and
Management International Cooperation Role of
ICT Help at Alexandria, Egypt during the period
from 14 to 17 April 2007
Joint Regional Conference on Disaster Relief and
Management International Cooperation Role of
ICT Held at Alexandria, Egypt during the period
from 14 to 17 April 2007
Joint Regional Conference on Disaster Relief and
Management International Cooperation Role of
ICT Help at Alexandria, Egypt during the period
from 14 to 17 April 2007
Joint Regional Conference on Disaster Relief and
Management International Cooperation Role of
ICT Held at Alexandria, Egypt during the period
from 14 to 17 April 2007
3
MAIN
Joint Regional Conference on Disaster Relief and
Management International Cooperation Role of
ICT Help at Alexandria, Egypt during the period
from 14 to 17 April 2007
Joint Regional Conference on Disaster Relief and
Management International Cooperation Role of
ICT Held at Alexandria, Egypt during the period
from 14 to 17 April 2007
A tsunami (pronounced soo-NAH-mee), loosely
referred to as, but technically not, a tidal
wave, is a series of waves (called a "wave
train") generated in a body of water by a
pulsating or abrupt disturbance that vertically
displaces the water column. Earthquakes,
landslides, volcanic eruptions, explosions, and
the impact of extraterrestrial bodies such as
meteorites, can generate tsunamis.
Joint Regional Conference on Disaster Relief and
Management International Cooperation Role of
ICT Help at Alexandria, Egypt during the period
from 14 to 17 April 2007
Joint Regional Conference on Disaster Relief and
Management International Cooperation Role of
ICT Held at Alexandria, Egypt during the period
from 14 to 17 April 2007
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Joint Regional Conference on Disaster Relief and
Management International Cooperation Role of
ICT Help at Alexandria, Egypt during the period
from 14 to 17 April 2007
Joint Regional Conference on Disaster Relief and
Management International Cooperation Role of
ICT Held at Alexandria, Egypt during the period
from 14 to 17 April 2007
Meteorites
Landslides
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Lituya Bay
Subduction
Joint Regional Conference on Disaster Relief and
Management International Cooperation Role of
ICT Help at Alexandria, Egypt during the period
from 14 to 17 April 2007
Joint Regional Conference on Disaster Relief and
Management International Cooperation Role of
ICT Held at Alexandria, Egypt during the period
from 14 to 17 April 2007
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Joint Regional Conference on Disaster Relief and
Management International Cooperation Role of
ICT Help at Alexandria, Egypt during the period
from 14 to 17 April 2007
Joint Regional Conference on Disaster Relief and
Management International Cooperation Role of
ICT Held at Alexandria, Egypt during the period
from 14 to 17 April 2007
Subduction
Earth Mechanisms
Joint Regional Conference on Disaster Relief and
Management International Cooperation Role of
ICT Help at Alexandria, Egypt during the period
from 14 to 17 April 2007
Joint Regional Conference on Disaster Relief and
Management International Cooperation Role of
ICT Held at Alexandria, Egypt during the period
from 14 to 17 April 2007
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Joint Regional Conference on Disaster Relief and
Management International Cooperation Role of
ICT Help at Alexandria, Egypt during the period
from 14 to 17 April 2007
Joint Regional Conference on Disaster Relief and
Management International Cooperation Role of
ICT Held at Alexandria, Egypt during the period
from 14 to 17 April 2007

Fault displacement under water displaces water,
water moves to fill vacuum, generating large
waves.
Joint Regional Conference on Disaster Relief and
Management International Cooperation Role of
ICT Help at Alexandria, Egypt during the period
from 14 to 17 April 2007
Joint Regional Conference on Disaster Relief and
Management International Cooperation Role of
ICT Held at Alexandria, Egypt during the period
from 14 to 17 April 2007
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Tsunami Simulation for warning
Joint Regional Conference on Disaster Relief and
Management International Cooperation Role of
ICT Help at Alexandria, Egypt during the period
from 14 to 17 April 2007
Joint Regional Conference on Disaster Relief and
Management International Cooperation Role of
ICT Held at Alexandria, Egypt during the period
from 14 to 17 April 2007
Joint Regional Conference on Disaster Relief and
Management International Cooperation Role of
ICT Help at Alexandria, Egypt during the period
from 14 to 17 April 2007
Joint Regional Conference on Disaster Relief and
Management International Cooperation Role of
ICT Held at Alexandria, Egypt during the period
from 14 to 17 April 2007
8
Tsunami Wave System
Joint Regional Conference on Disaster Relief and
Management International Cooperation Role of
ICT Help at Alexandria, Egypt during the period
from 14 to 17 April 2007
Joint Regional Conference on Disaster Relief and
Management International Cooperation Role of
ICT Held at Alexandria, Egypt during the period
from 14 to 17 April 2007

• Generation
• A seafloor disturbance, such as motion along a
  fault, pushes up the overlying water.
• Propagation
• The wave propagates across the deep ocean at
  jetliner speeds
• Shoaling and refraction to amplify the wave
• Inundation
• As the wave moves into shallower water,
  increased energy density increases both the wave
  height and the currents.
• Runup on a land and run-down

Jamboree II, The JCOMM/IODE Combined Modeling
and Data Management Training Workshop Held at
Oostende, Belgium, 9 14 October 2006
Joint Regional Conference on Disaster Relief and
Management International Cooperation Role of
ICT Help at Alexandria, Egypt during the period
from 14 to 17 April 2007
Joint Regional Conference on Disaster Relief and
Management International Cooperation Role of
ICT Held at Alexandria, Egypt during the period
from 14 to 17 April 2007
9
Estimation of a seabed movement (deformation)
Joint Regional Conference on Disaster Relief and
Management International Cooperation Role of
ICT Help at Alexandria, Egypt during the period
from 14 to 17 April 2007
Joint Regional Conference on Disaster Relief and
Management International Cooperation Role of
ICT Held at Alexandria, Egypt during the period
from 14 to 17 April 2007

• A fault movement is described by its location
  including its depth,
• Mechanical characteristics (strike, dip- and
  slip-angles of the fault plane),
• Geometrical characteristics (length, width and
  dislocation of the fault plane), and
• Dynamic characteristics(rupture direction,
  rupture velocity and rise time of the fault
  movement).

Earthquake magnitude Depth of the fault Length
and width of the fault plane Strike and dip
angle of the fault plane Dislocation and slip
angle
Jamboree II, The JCOMM/IODE Combined Modeling
and Data Management Training Workshop Held at
Oostende, Belgium, 9 14 October 2006
Joint Regional Conference on Disaster Relief and
Management International Cooperation Role of
ICT Help at Alexandria, Egypt during the period
from 14 to 17 April 2007
Joint Regional Conference on Disaster Relief and
Management International Cooperation Role of
ICT Held at Alexandria, Egypt during the period
from 14 to 17 April 2007
10
Earthquake induced tsunamis
Joint Regional Conference on Disaster Relief and
Management International Cooperation Role of
ICT Help at Alexandria, Egypt during the period
from 14 to 17 April 2007
Joint Regional Conference on Disaster Relief and
Management International Cooperation Role of
ICT Held at Alexandria, Egypt during the period
from 14 to 17 April 2007

• Tsunamis can be generated when the sea floor
  abruptly deforms and vertically displaces the
  overlying water.

Jamboree II, The JCOMM/IODE Combined Modeling
and Data Management Training Workshop Held at
Oostende, Belgium, 9 14 October 2006
Joint Regional Conference on Disaster Relief and
Management International Cooperation Role of
ICT Help at Alexandria, Egypt during the period
from 14 to 17 April 2007
Joint Regional Conference on Disaster Relief and
Management International Cooperation Role of
ICT Held at Alexandria, Egypt during the period
from 14 to 17 April 2007
11
Distant Tsunamis
Joint Regional Conference on Disaster Relief and
Management International Cooperation Role of
ICT Help at Alexandria, Egypt during the period
from 14 to 17 April 2007
Joint Regional Conference on Disaster Relief and
Management International Cooperation Role of
ICT Held at Alexandria, Egypt during the period
from 14 to 17 April 2007

• Wave system
• The fact that the wavelength of a tsunami is much
  longer than the water depth leads to the system
  of long waves.
• the wave amplitude of a tsunami in the deep ocean
  is infinitesimally small compared to the water
  depth
• linearity of the water wave .
• a distant tsunami can be solved with the aid of
  linear equations for long waves with the Coriolis
  force, frequency dispersion included, described
  in the longitude-latitude coordinate system.

Jamboree II, The JCOMM/IODE Combined Modeling
and Data Management Training Workshop Held at
Oostende, Belgium, 9 14 October 2006
Joint Regional Conference on Disaster Relief and
Management International Cooperation Role of
ICT Help at Alexandria, Egypt during the period
from 14 to 17 April 2007
Joint Regional Conference on Disaster Relief and
Management International Cooperation Role of
ICT Held at Alexandria, Egypt during the period
from 14 to 17 April 2007
12
Local Propagation
Joint Regional Conference on Disaster Relief and
Management International Cooperation Role of
ICT Help at Alexandria, Egypt during the period
from 14 to 17 April 2007
Joint Regional Conference on Disaster Relief and
Management International Cooperation Role of
ICT Held at Alexandria, Egypt during the period
from 14 to 17 April 2007

• Locally generated tsunami waves may propagate
  from their generating source to the near shore
  area of a nuclear power plant site
• hence, the wave propagation phenomena become
  important.
• Numerical techniques,FDM, are applied to
  determine modification during propagation.
• The accuracy of bottom topography has a vital
  effect on the computed results

Jamboree II, The JCOMM/IODE Combined Modeling
and Data Management Training Workshop Held at
Oostende, Belgium, 9 14 October 2006
Joint Regional Conference on Disaster Relief and
Management International Cooperation Role of
ICT Help at Alexandria, Egypt during the period
from 14 to 17 April 2007
Joint Regional Conference on Disaster Relief and
Management International Cooperation Role of
ICT Held at Alexandria, Egypt during the period
from 14 to 17 April 2007
13
Tsunami Warning System
Joint Regional Conference on Disaster Relief and
Management International Cooperation Role of
ICT Help at Alexandria, Egypt during the period
from 14 to 17 April 2007

• 1. Estimating the occurrence of a tsunami by
  seismic information (magnitude, location and
  depth)
• 2. Data base of the simulation with assumptions
• 3. Real time analysis with the tentative fault
  model
• 4. Revision of the tentative fault model by the
  observation data

Jamboree II, The JCOMM/IODE Combined Modeling
and Data Management Training Workshop Held at
Oostende, Belgium, 9 14 October 2006
Joint Regional Conference on Disaster Relief and
Management International Cooperation Role of
ICT Help at Alexandria, Egypt during the period
from 14 to 17 April 2007
14
Accuracy of the simulation
Joint Regional Conference on Disaster Relief and
Management International Cooperation Role of
ICT Help at Alexandria, Egypt during the period
from 14 to 17 April 2007

• Major causes of low accuracy induced by
• Initial source location and slip
• Modeling and Geometry data

Jamboree II, The JCOMM/IODE Combined Modeling
and Data Management Training Workshop Held at
Oostende, Belgium, 9 14 October 2006
Joint Regional Conference on Disaster Relief and
Management International Cooperation Role of
ICT Help at Alexandria, Egypt during the period
from 14 to 17 April 2007
15
To reduce damage and casualties
Joint Regional Conference on Disaster Relief and
Management International Cooperation Role of
ICT Help at Alexandria, Egypt during the period
from 14 to 17 April 2007

• The Three Helps of disaster measures
• The people could not see the impact/terror of
  tsunami only by warning with the tsunami
  information arrival time and heights.
• They should understand its impact have the
  imagination before the tsunami attack through
  making hazards map and having workshop.
• Self help,
• Public help,
• Mutual help

Jamboree II, The JCOMM/IODE Combined Modeling
and Data Management Training Workshop Held at
Oostende, Belgium, 9 14 October 2006
Joint Regional Conference on Disaster Relief and
Management International Cooperation Role of
ICT Help at Alexandria, Egypt during the period
from 14 to 17 April 2007
16
Joint Regional Conference on Disaster Relief and
Management International Cooperation Role of
ICT Help at Alexandria, Egypt during the period
from 14 to 17 April 2007
Jamboree II, The JCOMM/IODE Combined Modeling
and Data Management Training Workshop Held at
Oostende, Belgium, 9 14 October 2006
Joint Regional Conference on Disaster Relief and
Management International Cooperation Role of
ICT Help at Alexandria, Egypt during the period
from 14 to 17 April 2007
17
Joint Regional Conference on Disaster Relief and
Management International Cooperation Role of
ICT Help at Alexandria, Egypt during the period
from 14 to 17 April 2007
Jamboree II, The JCOMM/IODE Combined Modeling
and Data Management Training Workshop Held at
Oostende, Belgium, 9 14 October 2006
Joint Regional Conference on Disaster Relief and
Management International Cooperation Role of
ICT Help at Alexandria, Egypt during the period
from 14 to 17 April 2007
18
Making the original hazard maps
Joint Regional Conference on Disaster Relief and
Management International Cooperation Role of
ICT Help at Alexandria, Egypt during the period
from 14 to 17 April 2007

• In the past, the map was provided by the local
  government but no use for the people
• Original information should be included
• Selecting the base map
• Collecting the information of risk
• Discussion what information be included
• Checking them by town-walking

Jamboree II, The JCOMM/IODE Combined Modeling
and Data Management Training Workshop Held at
Oostende, Belgium, 9 14 October 2006
Joint Regional Conference on Disaster Relief and
Management International Cooperation Role of
ICT Help at Alexandria, Egypt during the period
from 14 to 17 April 2007
19
Joint Regional Conference on Disaster Relief and
Management International Cooperation Role of
ICT Help at Alexandria, Egypt during the period
from 14 to 17 April 2007
DART
Public education for awareness and evacuation
system with consideration of life and culture at
reach region.
ICT
Tower
Jamboree II, The JCOMM/IODE Combined Modeling
and Data Management Training Workshop Held at
Oostende, Belgium, 9 14 October 2006
Joint Regional Conference on Disaster Relief and
Management International Cooperation Role of
ICT Help at Alexandria, Egypt during the period
from 14 to 17 April 2007
20
Acknowledgments
Joint Regional Conference on Disaster Relief and
Management International Cooperation Role of
ICT Help at Alexandria, Egypt during the period
from 14 to 17 April 2007
Joint Regional Conference on Disaster Relief and
Management International Cooperation Role of
ICT Held at Alexandria, Egypt during the period
from 14 to 17 April 2007

• I would like to express my sincere gratitude and
  deep appreciation to Professor Fumihiko Imamura,
  DCRC, Tohoku University, Professor Yoshinobu
  Tsuji, ERI, University of Tokyo and Dr.Hiroyuki
  Matsumoto from JAMSTEC for their guidance,
  invaluable advice, supervision and material

Jamboree II, The JCOMM/IODE Combined Modeling
and Data Management Training Workshop Held at
Oostende, Belgium, 9 14 October 2006
Joint Regional Conference on Disaster Relief and
Management International Cooperation Role of
ICT Help at Alexandria, Egypt during the period
from 14 to 17 April 2007
Joint Regional Conference on Disaster Relief and
Management International Cooperation Role of
ICT Held at Alexandria, Egypt during the period
from 14 to 17 April 2007