Implications, adaptations

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Implications, adaptations policies
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Based on..
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Where are we in the programme?
Projected changes to atmospheric and oceanic
conditions
Ecosystems supporting fish

• Fish stocks/aquaculture species

• Implications for economic development, food
  security and livelihoods

• Adaptations and policies to reduce threats and
  capitalise on opportunities

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• Economic development

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Outline

• Revisit changes in tuna distribution
• Framework for adaptations
• Win-win adaptations
• Supporting policies

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Skipjack projection
Cook Islands 10
Cook Islands 15
Source Bell et al. 2013
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Adaptation decision framework
Addresses climate change
Long-term Loss
Long-term Gain
Lose-Lose X X Lose-Win
X Win-Win x X
Near-term Loss
Addresses present drivers
Win-Lose
Near-term Gain
After Grafton (2010)
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Adaptations
Vessel Days Scheme to manage effort of
industrial tuna fleets
Cap and trade provisions of VDS enable all PNA
members to receive some benefits during ENSO
events, regardless of where tuna are concentrated
La Niña
Ask
El Niño
Source of map Lehodey et al. (1997)
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Adaptations
Vessel Days Scheme to manage effort of
industrial tuna fleets

• Allocation of vessel days is adjusted regularly

Ask
2050
S
2100
Source Bell et al. (2011) and Lehodey et al.
(2011)
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Adaptations

• Immediate conservation measures for tuna

• Stopping overfishing of bigeye tuna, and
  preventing overfishing of other tuna, will
• maintain stocks at healthy levels
• make these valuable species more resilient to
  climate change

Bigeye tuna
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Other adaptations

• Improve safety at sea for vessels fishing in the
  cyclone belt
• Climate-proof infrastructure to prevent
  inundation by rising sea levels and more severe
  cyclones

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Suggested supporting policies

• Promote access agreements that are clear for all
  stakeholders
• Include implications of climate change in
  management objectives of WCPFC
• Require tuna vessels to provide operational-level
  catch and effort data to improve tuna models
• Develop further measures to reduce capture of
  bigeye tuna by purse-seine
• Develop tuna products and distribution channels
  that minimise CO2 emissions

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• Food security

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Outline

• Factors affecting availability of fish for food
• Reef area, ciguatera, climate change
• Implications for food security
• Win-win adaptations
• Supporting policies

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• Contributions of fish to food security

Cook Islands
Rarotonga Outer islands
25 kg 60 kg
35 kg per person per year recommended for good
nutrition
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• Fish needed

User group Population Fish consumption Fish needed (tonnes)
Rarotonga 13,000 35 kg/year 455
Tourists (p.a.) 120,000 1 kg 120
Other islands 3,000 60 kg/year 180
Total 755 Total 755 Total 755 Total 755
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Potential coastal fish production
Location Reef area (km2) Sustainable yield
Rarotonga 22 65 tonnes/year
Outer islands 645 gt1900 tonnes/year
X
Based on 3 tonnes per km2 per year
Ciguatera
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• Sources of fish for Rarotonga and tourists

• Reef fish from outer islands
• Large pelagic fish from tuna vessels and local
  fishers

Photo Marc Taquet
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• Sources of fish

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Effects of climate change on fish supply

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Effects of climate change on supply
Ciguatera

• Dead coral seaweed surfaces
• Nutrients
• Water temperature

From land-based activities and sewage
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Adaptations

• Incentives for longline vessels to deliver fish
  to Rarotonga

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Adaptations

• Increase access to tuna with anchored inshore
  Fish Aggregating Devices (FADs)

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Adaptations
Improve post-harvest methods
Photo Jocelyn Carlin
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Adaptations

• Sustain production of coral reef fish

Maintaining spawning adults will help ensure
replenishment and build resilience of key species
Photo Eric Clua
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Adaptations

• Reduce and diversify catches of demersal fish

Greater focus on herbivorous fish
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Adaptations

• Reduce risk of ciguatera with good reef
  management
• Avoid sending poisoned fish to Rarotonga

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Adaptations

• Manage catchment vegetation and minimise nutrient
  runoff

Improves resilience of coral reefs
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Adaptations
Develop coastal fisheries for small pelagic
species
?
Photo Nathalie Behring
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Adaptations
Aquaponics with Nile tilapia
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Suggested supporting policies

• Include FADs as part of the national
  infrastructure for food security
• Use licensing conditions to ensure delivery of
  fish from longline vessels to Rarotonga
• Apply primary fisheries management to reef fish
  stocks to maintain their potential for
  replenishment
• Promote freshwater aquaculture
• Strengthen governance of agriculture and tourist
  development to safeguard coral reefs and water
  quality

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• Livelihoods

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Outline

• Trends in pearl production
• Effects of climate change
• Adaptations

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The challenge
Value
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Potential impacts on pearl farming

• Poorer survival of spat due to ocean
  acidification
• Reduced pearl quality because nacre is composed
  of aragonite
• Effects of warmer water on nacre quality
• Problems due to more intense cyclones and
  increased stratification (e.g. deoxygenation)
• BUT rise in sea level may improve flushing of
  lagoons

Photo Leanne Hunter
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Adaptations
Use online forecasts

• Online portal to deliver seasonal forecasts for
  the Western Pacific under development
• Advance warning of potential extreme temperature
  events

http//www.bom.gov.au/climate/pacific/projects
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Adaptations
Selective breeding to resist effects of ocean
acidification
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Adaptations
Improved monitoring to identify best sites
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Adaptations
Grow pearls at greater depth for final nacre
Photo Leanne Hunter
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Suggested supporting policies

• Specify maximum oyster density and minimum
  distance between farms
• Set minimum quality standards of pearls
• Invest in environmental monitoring programmes
• Seek development partners for hatchery and
  selective breeding of pearl oysters

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Conclusions

• Win-win adaptations are available to reduce risks
  and capitalise on opportunities
• Supporting policies and investments are needed
• Integrate adaptations and policies into national
  strategies and action plans for climate change