Lecture 17: WMD Part 1

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Lecture 17 WMD Part 1

• Weapons of Mass Destruction An Introduction

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Defining WMD

• Weapons that have a relatively large-scale impact
  on people, property, and/or infrastructure.
• WMD are defined in US law (18 USC 2332a) as
• (A) any destructive device as defined in section
  921 of this title (i.e. explosive device)
• (B) any weapon that is designed or intended to
  cause death or serious bodily injury through the
  release, dissemination, or impact of toxic or
  poisonous chemicals, or their precursors
• (C) any weapon involving a biological agent,
  toxin, or vector (as those terms are defined in
  section 178 of this title)
• any weapon that is designed to release radiation
  or radioactivity at a level dangerous to human
  life.
• CBRN weapons chemical, biological, radiological,
  nuclear

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The Problem

• The probability of a terrorist organization
  using a chemical, biological, radiological, or
  nuclear weapon, or high-yield explosives, has
  increased significantly during the past decade.
• 2003 US National Strategy for Combating
  Terrorism
• Terrorists have declared their intention to
  acquire and use weapons of mass destruction (WMD)
  to inflict even more catastrophic attacks against
  the United States, our allies, partners, and
  other interests around the world.
• 2006 US National Strategy for Combating
  Terrorism
• The prospect that a nuclear capable state may
  lose control of some of its weapons to terrorists
  is one of the greatest dangers the US and its
  allies face.
• Quadrennial Defense Review, February 6, 2006

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The Threat
Intentions
High
High
Capabilities Opportunities
Low
Low
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The Environment

• During the Cold War
• Bipolar international system
• Monopoly of nukes CBW by strong, powerful
  states
• Terrorists did not cross threshold of mass
  destruction
• Nuclear terrorism ruled out because of stringent
  security surrounding atomic material in US/USSR
• The Post-Cold War threat environment has changed
• The Non-Proliferation Regimes crisis of
  legitimacy nuclear proliferation in South Asia,
  N Korea, the Middle East
• Fears of CBRN proliferation post-Soviet collapse
• Precedents set by Aum Shinriyko, LTTE and Chechen
  rebels
• The 2001 anthrax attacks in US
• Jihadi terrorist groups explicit interest in WMD
  to inflict mass casualties on their enemies
• Major advances in biotechnology

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Opportunities

• Transfer by a sympathetic national government,
  perhaps using export control loopholes
• Assistance from custodians of nuclear weapons
  (security guards)
• Unauthorized assistance from corrupt, angry or
  disenchanted, scientists/officials
• Seizure without insider help via armed raids
• Coup detat and chaos in a nuclear-armed failing
  state
• Technical information to build a nuclear weapon
  is widely available
• With relatively little radioactive material
  obtained from a power plant or medical facility,
  terrorists could construct a dirty bomb

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CBRN Weapons

• 4 Weapon Types
• Chemical
• Biological
• Radiological
• Nuclear
• Effects produced by Chemical and Biological
  Weapons are usually delayed and spread over time.
  
• Terrorists, in contrast, prefer spectacular,
  massive impact, instant worldwide publicity,
  shock awe effect
• Thus, nuclear or radiological may be more likely,
  but are significantly more difficult to design or
  acquire

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1) Chemical Weapons

• Chemical Weapons use the toxic properties of
  chemical substances to cause physical or
  psychological harm to an enemy
• Many different kinds, including
• Choking and blood agents (like chlorine,
  phosgene, fentanyl gas) cause respiratory damage
  and asphyxiation
• Blistering agents (like mustard gas and lewisite)
  cause painful burns requiring immediate medical
  attention
• Nerve gases degrade the functioning of the
  nervous system, causing a loss of muscle control,
  respiratory failure, and eventually death
• Can be delivered through bombs, rockets,
  artillery shells, spray tanks, and missile
  warheads

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al-Mubtakkar
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2) Biological Weapons
Biological weapons intentionally disseminate
agents of infectious diseases to harm or kill
others. Key considerations include infectivity,
virulence, toxicity, pathogenicity, the
incubation period, transmissibility, lethality
and stability. Bacteria (like Anthrax,
Brucellosis, Tularemia, Plague) Viruses
(Smallpox, Marburg, Yellow Fever) Rickettsia
(Typhus fever, Spotted fever) Fungi (the molds
that cause stem rust of wheat and rye) Toxins
(like Ricin, Botulinum and Saxitoxin) aka
midspectrum Infectious Pathogens Emerging
threats SARS, Avian Influenza Old threats
TB, HIV, Malaria

• - Relatively cost-effective weapons
• - Considered by many to be the most insidious
  type of weapons
• Strikes against the agricultural sector pose a
  serious threat

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Proliferation of Chemical and Biological Weapons

• Disenchanted Scientists
• Corrupt Security Guards
• Export Control Loopholes
• Global Crime Networks
• Black Markets
• Weak State Governance

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3) Radiological Weapons

• A radiation emission device (RED) or a
  radiological dispersion device (RDD) or dirty
  bomb is a bomb to cause panic, terror and mass
  disruption.
• Such a device, comprising radioactive material
  (such as plutonium 239, uranium 235, plutonium
  oxide and uranium oxide) dispersed by the
  detonation of conventional explosives, could
  spark terror and paralyze whole cities, even if
  its killing capacity were limited
• Myriad sources could be used for this purpose
• Medical/educational facilities, atomic waste
  storage reservations, commercial sites, etc.
• Many lack concerted security
• Especially medical facilities, educational
  institutions

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4) Nuclear Weapons

• Unique in their explosive energy, derived from
  nuclear fission splitting the nuclear of an
  atom, usually of highly enriched uranium or
  plutonium, into two or more parts by bombarding
  it with neutrons, and causing a chain reaction
• Destructive power up to 50 megatons
• 1,000 tons of TNT 1 kiloton
• WWII nukes 15-22 kilotons
• 1,000 kilotons 1 megaton
• 2 types Gun-type and Implosion

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Access to Nuclear Weapons

• The transfer, theft and detonation of an intact
  nuclear weapon (INW) sum of all fears
  scenario
• The theft or purchase of fissile material to
  fabricate and detonate a crude nuke an
  improvised nuclear device (IND)
• Attacks against and sabotage of nuclear
  facilities, in particular nuclear power plants,
  causing the release of large amounts of
  radioactivity
• Illicit market for nuclear materials the case of
  A.Q. Khan
• In October 2003, US intelligence agents boarded a
  cargo ship en route from Malaysia to Libya via
  Dubai and found thousands of centrifuge parts for
  enriching uranium. The buyer was Libyas Col.
  Gaddafi the seller, Dr A. Q. Khan, the father of
  Pakistans nuclear bomb
• This interception uncovered the dark underside of
  globalization a worldwide, black market in
  nuclear materials, designs and technologies that
  the IAEA chief, Mohammed El-Baradei, has called a
  Wal-Mart of private-sector proliferation

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Critical Infrastructure

• Pre-positioned WMD?
• Nuclear power plants
• Chemical storage facilities
• Bio-technology labs
• Dams, water protection infrastructure (Katrina)
• Urban Transportation of Toxic Chemicals
• Etc.
• 9/11 attacks used pre-positioned weapons

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Conclusion

• Potential exists for limited CBRN strikes
• Cant rule out attacks that local affiliates can
  execute on a (semi-) autonomous basis
• Aim to elicit mass disruption rather than
  physical destruction per se
• Weapon type determines possible availability and
  impact

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Questions?