Ocean Model Development (and relation to ice shelves)

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Ocean Model Development (and relation to ice
shelves)

• IPCC summarized top two impacts of physical
  climate change as (a) air temperature, and (b)
  sea level
• Without any physical model of sea level, IPCC
  reported a seal level projection
• Ocean models could be argued to be relevant to
  sea level change projections
• Ocean modeling has no meaningful plan to
  address one of IPCC two mains concerns

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Relevance ofIce-Shelf Ocean Interaction

• Sea Level Rise (SLR) projection 2100
• Changes in SL will have some regional character
• past -gt fingerprints
• polar wandering
• self gravity
• ocean dynamic height
• Contributions are Steric and Eustatic

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Eustatic Component Role of the Ice Sheets

• Main concern is marine portions of Greenland and
  Antarctica

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Whats happening inice shelf ocean research

• Observational programs
• among the harshest /difficult environments to
  sample (ocean beneath kms of ice)
• Theoretical developments
• among the most challenging fluid dynamical
  behaviors (calving)
• Modeling Initiatives
• requires major reworking of ocean codes
• (kms of surface pressure, grounding line
  migration)

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Ice Processes
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Ocean Processes Water Mass Transformation
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Ocean Processes Other Considerations
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What have we observed in the last decade or so?
Any big changes?

• Yes!
• The perimeter of the ice sheets,
• where they are floating,
• and where there exists warm ocean waters
• is undergoing dramatic change.

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Greenland ChangeJakobshavn Isbrae

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Why Change _at_Jakobshavn Isbrae?
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Antarctica ChangePine Island Glacier (PIG)

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Why Change _at_Pine Island Glacier?
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Some Recent Ocean ObservationsDepths and
Temperatures at Jakobshavn, August 2009
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Some Future Ocean Observations2010-2015

• Greenland Modest Ice Tongues
• Jakobshavn, Helheim
• (From Boat or Helicopter
• CTD, XCTD, Glider, AUV)

Antarctica Massive Ice Shelves PIG,
WISSARDS (From Icebreaker or Drilling Profiling
CTD, AUV)
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and now on to ice-shelf ocean interaction
theory and model(l)ing
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