Make a Wager:

1
Make a Wager

• Does God Exist?
• Pragmatic Justification of Religious Belief

2
Blaise Pascals Argument

• If we do a cost-benefit analysis of the matter,
  we find that it is eminently reasonable to get
  ourselves to believe that God exists regardless
  of whether we have good evidence for that belief.

3
Blaise Pascal

• Regarding the proposition God exists reason is
  neutral. It can neither prove nor disprove it.
  But we must make a choice on this matter, for not
  to choose for God is in effect to choose against
  him and lose the possible benefits that belief
  would bring. Since these benefits promise to be
  infinite and the loss equally infinite, we might
  set forth the possibilities as shown below

4
Blaise Pascal A Choice

• FIRST CHOICE
• I believe that God exists
• A. If God does exists, then there is an infinite
  gain with minimal finite loss.
• B. If God does not actually exist, then there is
  only an overall finite loss in term of sacrifice
  of earthly goods.
• OR

5
Blaise Pascal A Choice

• SECOND CHOICE
• I do not believe that God exists
• C. If God does in fact exists, then there is
  infinite loss with finite gain.
• D. If God does not actually exists, then there
  is overall finite gain.

6
Blaise Pascal A Choice

• There is some sacrifice of earthly pleasure
  involved in belief in God, but by multiplying the
  various combinations we find that there is an
  incommensurability between A and C, on the one
  hand, and B and D on the other.
• No matter how enormous the finite gain, the mere
  possibility of infinite gain will always make the
  latter preferable to the former.

7
Blaise Pascal A Choice

• So, the only relevant possibilities are A and C.
  Since A (believing in God) infinite unhappiness,
  a rational cost-benefit analysis leaves no doubt
  about what we should do. Thus, we have a clear
  self-interested reason for believing in God.

8

• Appeals to your intellect regarding the wisdom of
  choices (making a judgment in view of the options
  or/and consequences)
• You will experience an infinite loss if God
  does in fact exists then if He doesnt exist-if
  you refuse to believe.
• You will experience an infinite gain if God
  does exists and experience only a finite loss
  if you willfully believe.
• This argument appeals to the will regarding the
  intellects judgment. In view of these type of
  probabilities there is a rational tendency to
  believe.

9

• CONSIDER THE FOLLOWING APPEAL BY PASCAL
• Now what harm will befall you in taking this
  side? You will be faithful, honest, humble,
  grateful, generous, a sincere friend, truthful.
  Certainly you will not have those poisonous
  pleasures, glory and luxury but will you not
  have others? I will tell you that you will
  thereby gain in this life, and that, at each step
  you take on this road, you will see so great
  certainty of gain, so much nothingness in what
  you risk, that you will at least recognize that
  you have wagered for something certain and
  infinite, for which you have given nothing
• Philosophy of Religion An Anthology, ed.
  Louis P. Pojman (Belmont, CA. Wadsworth, 2003),
  363.

10

• Lastly, considerwhat if we were to add classical
  proofs for Gods argument to this probability
  argument formulating a cumulative case for Gods
  existence. Would the probability in favor of
  Gods existence increase?
• Cosmological Argument
• Kalam Cosmological Argument
• Moral Argument
• Religious Need Argument
• Innate Idea Argument
• Joy Argument
• Ontological Argument
• Teleological argument
• Intelligent Design.
• Anthropic Principle (fine tuning of the universe).

11
Discussion Questions

• How much evidence does one need to have in order
  to believe?
• Are their weaknesses in Pascals argument in
  terms of probability?
• Can I even choose to believe?
• Would God reward me if I did choose to believe
  for the reasons Pascal gives for reasons for
  self-interest?
• Is their a difference in believing that from
  in?
• Does this wager presuppose fear?
• Is this argument an exercise in bad faith?